For someone talking about not making assumptions, you're badly misinformed. Index Librorum Prohibitorum was created by the English Angelicans, and is currently in western Tokyo.

I'm continually amazed by how resistant reinforced concrete is to direct attacks, even direct attacks by 16 inch guns to german fortifications on d day basically did, like above, nothing.

Uh, the models have free parameters, which are "fitted" to past historical data. There's been no standard separation of training and testing sets that's used to verify this type of model.
Secondly, the models have completely failed to predict, or even replicate the lack of spiraling upward temperatures that should go along with increasing CO2.
Thirdly, there's a very obvious experiment to perform, calculate spectra of CO2 in the atmosphere, and see if it matches the naive extrapolation used in GCMs.
Fourthly, the models do not accurately replicate troposphere temperatures.
Finally, many experimental measurements/calculations, like the standard deviation of temperature and such to find when weather turns into climate have not been done, and just handwaved away with claims that averages are easier to predict.

GCMs are nothing more than crude weather models iterated past the (experimentally determined ~ 1 week) Lyapunov exponent of the system. But all that doesn't matter because it's just basic principles of computer science and physics, to say nothing of Navier-Stokes, and I'm sure feeling-based science will replace all those "closeminded oil company stooges".

Ah, yes, more ad homiems. Just displace all your ignorance and insecurity onto anyone who uses those mean old reasoning and evidence when they provide evidence that your worldview is wrong.

I mean, it's not at all crankish to demand others accept your ideas because the burden of proof is on them. Here I was thinking that for a scientific theory that's claimed to have quantitative predictive power, the burden of proof was on the person proposing the theory, that is, give some quantitative predictions, or some quantitative reasoning why predictions are only valid in ~100 years.

Do tell me, how much of your life revolves around justifying away the cognitive dissonance created by climatology conspiracy theory strawmen and oil/coal conspiracy theories? I ask, because I would like to be fair and justify my claim that you are an idiot. Are you capable of thinking at all, or do you have to get all of your thoughts and opinions from consensus and such?

Ah, yes: "McIntyre's made all these errors, but we can't be bothered to, you know, quote his words/reasoning to point out *exactly* the where why how etc of his mistake."

So, where's this mythical 2nd paper that repeats the 1935 measurements so the effect of +50ppm CO2 is quantified? Once again, you setup and fail to even knock down your 10 meter tube strawman. You could, you know, bother to check what I *actually* said "I want to know what the observed experimental data is, from a ~10 meter tube, or the observed atmosphere, or such, not computer models.", but that'd completely shatter your argument.

>It's a meaningless calculation because the error will very quickly approach the size of what's being measured. (then some random non sequitur about how the standard deviation is apparently not the quantification of *deviation* of measurement)

Seriously, you *really* need to learn about the standard deviation, or anything else you choose to argue about, because you're basically claiming up is down and black is white.

The equation was given, it matches observations. But, you can pretend that your ignorance (by your own admission) of thermodynamics means as long as I don't "prove" it to you (that is, provide an argument that makes you feel smart about some advanced scientific topic), you don't need to bother with thinking about information outside your worldview. As long as you don't admit you're wrong, project that a given physics derivation and observation is a "moving target" and such, you don't have to "feel" wrong. Ah, fun with causing cognitive dissonance in cranks.

Nice, you couldn't even point out one error in McIntyre's paper, and yet you stubbornly cling to your conspiracy theories.

You really need to spend a lot more time on (a) learning how science, specifically physics, is done, and (b) reading comprehension. You then might notice that I did not want values from models, but experimental values. But that would shatter your whole fantasy that you're some heroic "defender of truth".

>I did some thinking about this. It's a meaningless calculation because the error will very quickly approach the size of what's being measured.

You do know that the standard deviation has a very precise definition (really, go look it up), and that what you wrote is so muddle-headed, vague, and just plain meaningless. But that's ok, as long as you feel like your analogy is a substitute for knowledge of simple math.

>No it's not. I give up. Forget it. This is a waste of my time.

Ah, yes. Wikipedia does use *such* difficult to read formatting for equations. And you know, thermodynamics is just a theory, and observations that match the theory doesn't actually strengthen the argument. Reality be dammed, as long as it doesn't make you happy you can ignore any equation that fits the data and provides a theoretical understanding.

Ah, so a thermodynamic derivation that matches well with observations is your definition of a nutter. That's good to know. I'm sure that attitude won't lead to looking like a complete idiot time and again. Or, maybe some youtube video, fragmentary knowledge of physics, and name calling is just a predictable reaction of someone so ignorant and insecure, that experiment matching theory is "felt" to be a crackpot idea.

Once again, I asked for specifics, quoting more accusations about McIntyre without being able to provide attribution to what he has written will be taken as proof that said accusations are baseless.

"A derivation" has a precise meaning, it means from first (physical) principles. A calculation does not mean the same thing. BTW, providing answers isn't really helpful when the point is to follow the reasoning as to how the answer was arrived at.

I'll check the Physical Review paper at the library tomorrow, do you know if anyone has done a recent study to quantify how the absorption has changed since 1935 (from increasing CO2 and such).

Once again, the specific claim was that no one has taken the observed temperature readings, and calculated the standard deviation. Models are not observations, models *should* match observations, but that's not scientific to assume.

The dry adiabatic lapse rate on wikipedia isn't well formatted enough for you? Since you adamantly refuse to go through the trouble of plugging in constants, whose values are conveniently also on wikipedia, I think we can take that to be an admission that you agree the equation (and derivation) is correct and accurately matches observations. Let me know if you'd like any other physics issues you're confused about clarified and I'll be glad to help you out.

What mistakes - specifics examples from his 2005 paper please? It's not at all a convincing argument, and bad form to boot, to just make accusations without backing them up. From the information I can find - 'MBH98 and MBH99 were found to be "somewhat obscure and incomplete" and the criticisms by McIntyre and McKitrick were found to be "valid and compelling" ' - the ad homiem attacks, common theme of accusations of either Conspiracy Of Marketing Firms, or Crackpots Believing In Conspiracy Of Climate Scientists, and general vitriol is a substitute for good theories and data. People that "see" "hidden agendas" in others' work tend to discredit themselves, especially when they can't support it with evidence.

Why is it *so* important that policy be enacted immediately? The human race has a long history not fully understanding nature - if the consequences are *so* dire, then we should be very careful we don't muck things up even more. If it's completely unreasonable to have some rigor, because of looming catastrophe, a "tipping point", where is the data that supports this idea?

You seem to be confused about my questions involving standard deviation and experiments - if you're uncertain about what I'm saying, just say what you don't understand, and I'll clarify it for you. Here they are again, as simple as I can make them.

My specific claim about standard deviation is that no one has taken the observed temperature readings, and calculated the standard deviation from that, for 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, and 1 year. If you've read a paper which has this value, please provide a quote, and link.

"I want to know what the observed experimental data is, from a ~10 meter tube, or the observed atmosphere, or such, not computer models" - the absorption spectrum of CO2 is measured by a spectrometer over ~1cm, I think it's important to have done the (simple) experiment that would verify we know how CO2 behaves over longer distances, if it's a fundamental part of our models.

The derivation is available at the wikipedia article on Adiabatic Lapse Rate, you can find data for the atmosphere of Venus, and the least square algorithm there as well. All the other numbers are accepted values of physical constants. The equation is independent of planet, besides dependence on g, and the value for Earth is 9.8C/km, from the wikipedia article. I don't understand what you consider short-hand - if you don't understand the derivation then you need to pick up a copy of Kittel and Kroemer, Thermal Physics. It's rather disingenuous to expect me to provide a simpler derivation, but you surely can plug in numbers, do the least squares, and check that I wasn't lying about the numbers I gave.

You're aware that spectrometry gives the absorption spectrum, a distribution of the %saturated for a particular wavelength. So, you don't get to just magically throw some equations together and have the right answer, you need to notice the not so subtle fact that spectrometers give answers that are correct *only* for ~1cm path length. I'd suggest you pick up some physics books rather than reciting talking points, or even doing the experiment, but that's only if you care about looking like an idiot.