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Comment: Re:Bias: but for them - not me! (Score 1) 455

by Layzej (#48910859) Attached to: Science By Democracy Doesn't Work

I think Nasa's Gavin Schmidt is better positioned to understand what Tamino has done than you are

I'm sure he is, but he is not describing Tamino's analysis. He is describing his own. That is plain as day for anyone who has read Tamino's analysis. Please do so!

It's too bad Tamino does not say explicitly what his graph represents.

You are daft. He says exactly what it represents. It is not difficult. Read it.

Comment: Re:Bias: but for them - not me! (Score 1) 455

by Layzej (#48910567) Attached to: Science By Democracy Doesn't Work

You are linking to a different site showing a different thing you dolt! I'm not talking about the realClimate analysis! Lord! I only linked the exact site that I'm referring to about a dozen times! Once more - here it is: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2...

You can read right? Please do and stop wasting my time.

Comment: Re:Bias: but for them - not me! (Score 1) 455

by Layzej (#48910139) Attached to: Science By Democracy Doesn't Work
Ah. I see your confusion. You don't really understand what Tamino did. He did not compare 1970-2000 with 1970-2015. No wonder you are confused. He compared 1970-2000 with 2000-2015. Just as you have shown in your first link above. So no, that's not a gotcha. That's exactly what he is doing. Now he has also shown what you would predict for 2000-2015 if the 1970-2000 trend had continued. Guess what he found? Recent warming is exactly in line with what we would expect if the 1970-2000 trend had continued to present day. This is really not that tricky. Please take a moment to read the link before you make your next post. What a waste of time! You are arguing from ignorance and for no good reason!

Comment: Re:Bias: but for them - not me! (Score 1) 455

by Layzej (#48903389) Attached to: Science By Democracy Doesn't Work

If the data showed an increased warming trend since 2000, Tamino's extrapolation trick is the one skeptics would be using to try to "prove" that global warming has "stayed about the same"

The method can be used to show whether the trend has stayed about the same regardless of whether the warming has increased or decreased over the most recent period. duh!

Comment: Re:Bias: but for them - not me! (Score 1) 455

by Layzej (#48901461) Attached to: Science By Democracy Doesn't Work

Looking at the recent trend won't help us know what the recent trend is like?? Seriously?

How can you still be asking this? The trend was anywhere from 0 to 0.216C/decade. So the trend is either no warming at all or warming past all expectations... but which is it really? Turns out it is exactly consistent with what we would have expected if the warming of 1970-2000 had continued past 2000 to present day.

Comment: Re:Bias: but for them - not me! (Score 1) 455

by Layzej (#48900617) Attached to: Science By Democracy Doesn't Work
I thought you'd wrapped your head around statistical significance, but we can take a step back if you need to. So the trend since 2000 is possibly as high as 0.216C/decade. The trend from 1970-2000 is possibly as low as 0.106C/decade. So just looking at the trend won't help us know whether the recent trend is what we would expect if the pre-2000 trend had continued unabated. To know that we would have to look at whether the recent trend is what we would expect if the pre-2000 trend had continued unabated.. And yes, this could be done on any data set. (duh).

Comment: Re:Bias: but for them - not me! (Score 1) 455

by Layzej (#48899507) Attached to: Science By Democracy Doesn't Work
You still don't get it, but I think you're making progress. He is not measuring since 1970. He is predicting what values we should have seen after 2000 if the trend from 1970-2000 had continued past 2000. Guess what? We saw exactly the temperatures that we would have expected AFTER 2000 if the rate of warming had continued unabated:: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2...

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