## Comment: Re:Do people really take this risk seriously? (Score 1) 180

Just a lot of really bad arguments.

To me, the worst of the lot is the statistical "reasoning" which is all based on the presumption that these events are equally distributed. The thing is: we **know** that they are **not** uniformly distributed... and even worse, we don't know how they **are** distributed.

Sure, we do know of a few particular cycles of tendency, but those don't predict individual events.

So the very basis of TFA's statistical reasoning is nonsense. We don't have any way to actually calculate the probability of such an event. We don't have enough information.