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Comment: Re:The more important question is... (Score 1) 492

by Guppy (#44052381) Attached to: One Year Since Assange Took Refuge in Ecuadorian Embassy

How much is this costing Ecuador

Annoying America - Priceless!

How much is this costing Ecuador? In terms of physically hosting him, probably not much. In terms of political cost, possibly quite a bit.

What's more, the US doesn't dispense foreign aid so we can all hold hands and sing kumbaya together. We spend money on foreign aid as a method of influencing the governments other other countries; it gives us a carrot we can dangle in front of other countries. And for those that have become dependent on it, something we can take away when we're displeased with their behavior.

Comment: Re:No evidence, but... (Score 1) 230

by Guppy (#43915199) Attached to: New Drugs Trail Many Old Ones In Effectiveness Against Disease

Urban legend or true story - I don't know. The inability to know stuff like this is a problem in itself.

Actual drug (anti-IgE Monoclonal antibody), WHARGARBL explanation. You're thinking of the Talizumab (TNX-901) and Omalizumab (Xolair) dispute:

TNX-901 was developed by Houston-based Tanox, started by two biomedical scientists, Nancy T. Chang and Tse Wen Chang, in 1986. There was a legal dispute whether Tanox had the right to independently develop TNX-901 under the tripartite partnership formed by Tanox, Novartis, and Genentech in 1996. Trials of TNX-901 for treating extreme peanut sensitivity, which affect children especially, were unfortunately mired in legal battles.

Although I've linked to the Wikipedia article on this subject, I don't consider the currently posted version of the article to be a good source of information on the subject; several sections of the article are written in a style unsuitable for an encyclopedia. For instance, use of rhetorical questions in the body of an article smacks of non-neutrality and non-factual writing, as in the example below:

The development history of Tanox and the story of TNX-901 are excellent subject matters for discussion in business school classrooms. Was there another way for Tanox to survive and grow? For a medical field as large as allergy and a potential drug market as large as for anti-IgE antibodies, isn't the development of a back-up drug for omalizumab a sensible strategy?

Comment: Movie / Game co-promotion will guarantee success (Score 2) 181

by Guppy (#43904575) Attached to: <em>World of Warcraft</em> Film Shooting Begins Early 2014

World of Warcraft: The Movie 3D IMAX Experience (suggested title) begins shooting in early 2014.

No matter how bad the movie turns out, if they do a co-promotion that rewards players with a highly desirably in-game item, millions will go see it. I suggest that the item take the form of a ticket item that allows you to fight a special "Shark" mob, with a hidden weakness triggered by jumping.

Comment: Interference Competition (Score 1) 115

by Guppy (#43856171) Attached to: Book Review: The Human Division

Every species exhibits conflict and turmoil among its own members, whereas violence between species is almost solely one of predator/prey relationship. If you don't eat them, and they don't eat you, there is almost never interspecies conflict. The greater the physical differences, the less likely any conflict.

Actually, this is not true. Two relatively well-matched species of predators may ignore each other, as there is substantial risk of injury to both parties. Two grossly mis-matched species may also ignore each other, if there is little overlap in ecological niche.

However, there is an intermediate zone of size difference in which one species of predator is clearly stronger, yet there is still some overlap in prey consumed by both species. In such cases, the stronger predator will often harass and kill the weaker species. What distinguishes this type of predator-predator interference competition from predator-prey relationship, is that the stronger predator will kill the weaker one even when not hungry, or without feeding on the carcass afterwards.

Comment: Re:NAND flash = transistors on a chip (Score 2) 147

by Guppy (#43852203) Attached to: Moore's Law Fails At NAND Flash Node

It's unreasonable to claim that Moore's law applies at all, because it is not a law, was never a law, and never will be a law. Not in the legal sense, and not in the physical makeup of the universe sense*. Moore's Law is a statistical anomaly.

In other words, it would more correctly be described as "Moore's Observation"?

Comment: Re:Award scholarships for under-aged people (Score 3) 95

by Guppy (#43851753) Attached to: PayPal Reviewing Qualifying Age For Vulnerability Rewards

And give the scholarship a grand-sounding name, so the kid can get some extra mileage in buffing his resume; such documents are often read by non-technical personnel who might misunderstand "Earned $**** reward for finding security vulnerability" (OMG HAX!), but would love to see something like "Recipient of the Paypal Merit Scholarship for Computing Security Excellence in Youth".

Comment: Comments on "Lifetime Medical Costs of Obesity" (Score 1) 446

by Guppy (#43825191) Attached to: Med Students Unaware of Their Bias Against Obese Patients

"Until age 56 annual health expenditure was highest for obese people. At older ages, smokers incurred higher costs. Because of differences in life expectancy, however, lifetime health expenditure was highest among healthy-living people and lowest for smokers. Obese individuals held an intermediate position."

As mentioned by the authors, there are studies that have reached opposite conclusions, as there are assumptions which can dramatically change the conclusions. In the comments section of the paper, there are reader comments which point out some very important problems with this particular paper (most of which seem to revolve around Ecological Fallacy-type assumptions):

Thomas Mittendorf: "It seems that the study has a major flaw in the inclusion of cost. The authors incorporated average health care costs in the model. These costs of course are higher the older the individual gets. But, as they are taking a prospective incidence orientated approach analyzing what happens to 20 year olds in the rest of their individual life it is not correct to use average costs. The average cost figures have to be differentiated between those costs that are incurred by persons that die and those who survive in the respective year. This has to be done for all cohorts. If the healthy people get older healthy and die five years later than the rest, dying gets cheaper. On the other hand dying is more expensive in younger cohorts."

David Strip: "Much in line with the response by Mittendorf, the validity of the results lies very strongly on key assumptions that are not demonstrated. The analysis assumes that the cost of an incidence of the 22 key diseases is independent of the risk factors being tested. Likewise, remaining health care costs, which account for 85% of health-care spending in the Netherlands , are assumed to be uncorrelated to risk factors. Given that this latter class of spending dwarfs the former, the importance of demonstrating the lack of correlation is particularly important. The incidence of numerous co-morbidities with obesity argues, in fact, that one might reasonably expect to find that the annual health costs are higher in the obese and that the cost of treatment in the last months preceding death may be quite different from the non-obese."

+ - Bender's Law: Futurama co-producer on law and robots->

Submitted by Anonymous Coward
An anonymous reader writes "Stanford had a conference, organized by Ryan Calo and others, on robotics and the law last month. One of the producers of Futurama gave a talk about how law applies to robots on the show. No slides (copyright?) but some great inside baseball for a show that just ended an amazing run."
Link to Original Source

Comment: Guns and Epidemiology (Score 1) 750

by Guppy (#43787631) Attached to: House Bill Would Mandate Smart Gun Tech By U.S. Manufacturers

I'm not a doctor or pharmacist, so I don't have any opinion on proper methods manufacture, store, or otherwise handle various classes of prescription drugs.
I have no idea what regulations make sense. It would be STUPID of me to comment on how a pharmacy must be run since I don't know anything about the subject.

Speaking of medicine, I'd like to bring up some of the metrics that are used to evaluate the cost/benefit of a drug. Think of an ID lock as being equivalent to the drug benefit; the number of deaths or injuries avoided with this technology (for guns, we would probably consider it more like a vaccine than a drug, since "deaths avoided" benefit includes both the owner and surrounding people). Likewise, side effects would be the number of deaths or injuries that would not occur in absense of this technology (because it failed to fire when needed, or malfunctioned in a lethal way).

Of course there are details that are must be thought through; for instance, if you consider reduction in suicides (suicide by a non-owner who obtains the weapon), do you credit the full "value" of a suicide avoided, or only the proportional reduction in suicide completion vs non-firearm attempts? Or, how do we evaluate the death of an intended target in terms of deaths caused/avoided; the situation can be rather complex when we consider the details of domestic violence murders.

The we ask, what is the Relative Risk of this technology? Is the number greater or less than 1? Then, some additional parameters we should need to consider include Number to Treat, from which we can start to consider the Pharmacoeconomics of the technology.

Comment: Re:Having had a whooping cough outbreak in the fam (Score 2) 273

by Guppy (#43776615) Attached to: Uptick In Whooping Cough Linked To Subpar Vaccines

OTOH, my daughter will NOT get the cervical cancer vaccine, because HPV is preventable in behavior

On the plus side for her, even if she contracts the virus the most likely outcome is that she will eventually clear it, as most infected individuals do. The risk for cervical cancer arises from the collision of a rather rare outcome with a extremely common exposure; nearly all sexually active adults will unknowingly carry HPV at some time in their lives. Unfortunately, the combination results in some 12,000 cases of cervical cancer per year, in the US.

The original research that identified the HPV-Cancer link actually had to study Nuns to find a sufficiently isolated population; the virus is actually rather common even in monogamous women. Men are not routinely screened for HPV status, and contrary to common belief infections does not necessarily result in genital warts -- for instance, high-risk strain HPV 16 is exceptionally good at producing invisible infections (which may be why it ranks among the more common of HPV strains, actually). These infections may persist undetected for anywhere from months to years, and while your daughter may remain virgin until her wedding night, the same might not be true for her husband (and oral sex counts as far as the virus is concerned, being related to risk of head-and-neck cancers).

An interesting bit of trivia: genetic material from high-risk strains of HPV can be found in some 15-25% of lung cancers tissue samples. We don't have sufficient evidence to make a claim for a causal relationship at this time, but it's a very interesting coincidence. Also interesting is that high-risk strains of HPV have also been found in the CNS of infants with certain forms of intractable epilepsy (Focal Cortical Dysplasia Type II-B). The more we look, the more places we are finding this virus.

Heisenberg may have slept here...

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