I think the Steelers will win (obviously), but I'll get all rational and tell you why:
1.) The running game. Indy is ranked 12th in defense against the run. Pretty good, right? Considering most teams are playing catchup and play the passing game most of the second quarter, no, its not impressive. If the steelers get even a 1 point lead, they will be running at the colts constantly, then maybe throw in a few play actions for big plays.
2.) The 34. Indy has played 2 teams that play the 34 (I'm discluding New England, because they have pretty much stuck with the 43 since like week two). Cleveland, whom Indy beat by 3, and Houston, whom they beat by a small margin up front and a large margin in the second game. However, out of all teams, Pittsburgh pretty much is the only mature 34 team in the league. SD is definately getting there. NE had it last year but not this year. The 34 means the OL has to play a completely different game and protections. The 34 means more confusing coverages for the QB.
3.) Physical Corners. NE always thumped Indy because they used their strong corners to manhandle the small Indy recievers. This year, of course, NE was playing 17th string DBs, so that left a large gap in their plans. The Steelers CBs will be pushing the WRs around as much as possible. Every catch will be caught, then the WR should be hit as hard as possible. Don't be surprised to see injuries, as this will be a physical game on astroturf.
4.) All-Pro O-Line. Just like with the Cincy game, those speedster ends have one drawback. They are small. Put them up against a run oriented, like to punch you in the mouth O-Line, and you take the entire D-Line out of the game. Even with Tommy Maddox in, I wouldn't expect more than a single sack.
5.) Giant Killers. Last year the Steelers took out the undefeated Pats and then, the following week, trounced the undefeated Eagles. Go back to 84. The Joe Montana winning 49ers had one loss. Guess who beat'm?
6.) Only One Loss. If you take away Tommy Maddox, the Steelers only have one loss (to the Pats). Something to keep in mind when looking at the records.
7.) Bob Bratowski. The offensive coordinator of the Bengals, if you don't recognize the game. Four years ago, he showed the league near the end of the season that the supposed 'superbowl bound' steelers had a flaw. The spread offense. Charlie Weis saw this game, put it in the offense, and the underdog Pats won that game on their way to the first of three Lombardi trophies. Bob did the steelers a favor against Indy last week. I guarantee you that Ken Wisenhunt has studied that game like a madman.
Here's the deal, if the Steelers get an early lead, the Colts are in a LOT of trouble, because the Steelers will be dressing Bettis, Staley, AND Parker. Expect to see them change up running styles all over the place.
If the Steelers can stay within a touchdown going into the fourth, beware Indy, cause your tired defense will also see a tremendous amount of running.
If the Steelers lose, they will cover the points (8? That's just crazy). If they do, in fact, lose, they'll need to bring their A-Game next week at the Cincy game, cause they need the win to take the division. Otherwise, they will probably lose to Cincinnati, cause its a short week then against a tough opponent.
Regardless, the Colts most definately have the bye, probably have homefield.