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Comment Re:Apple is doomed (Score 1) 428

Most people I know switch back and forth between iphone and android phones regularly.

And most people I know are religiously tied to one or the other (and the older they get, the less they want to change). ie. anecdotes are useless.

Apple is making lots of money because they have no competition on the iphone side while there is lots of competition on the android side but as everyone upgrade every few years, it would only take a couple years of people starting to prefer android (like me and many of my friends) for their profit margins to start to erode

And you don't think that's significant? Android's price advantage is due to the cutthroat competition that I mentioned in my previous post. What will happen when HTC, LG, Sony, etc give up on the market because it's not profitable? You will have Samsung on the high end and a couple Chinese companies on the low end. And who knows, once Samsung owns the non-iOS phone market, they could just dump Google and do their own thing. If that happens Android is much more at risk of irrelevancy than iOS devices...

Comment Re: What's the deal... (Score 2) 262

Regen on flat pedaling is stupid and goes along the lines of a perpetual motion machine. Much of the energy you pedal into the motor is lost in the form of heat and you won't get out what you put in.

You are thinking solely in terms of mechanics and not biology. Siphoning off a few watts on a flat pedal to recharge when cyclists are normally conserving energy for the next climb anyway and then applying it when needed most can spread out the energy expended to make things more efficient.

Try running a 5k sprinting until you can't run any more, and then walking until you recover and can sprint again vs just running at your maximum steady pace. I guarantee you the latter strategy gets you a better time.

Losses from inefficiencies of the motor could make things less ideal, though that depends on the motor and considering it certainly isn't "stupid".

Comment Re:Apple is doomed (Score 1) 428

Dairy farmers still exist, and milk isn't a particularly new product.

If people upgrade their phone every 2-3 years (and that has been the trend), there isn't a need for a "new product". Of course, Apple wants to grow and diversify so they will come up with new products, but that's not strictly necessary for a business to succeed.

Comment Re:Apple is doomed (Score 1) 428

Most children first exposure of computing is thru Android. Maybe this is not noticeable in the USA but there's like 7 billion people in the world and you can buy an Android phone for a few dollars.

Wow, you really just don't get Apple's business, do you? They don't care about consumers looking for a low end phone, their business is focused on huge profit margins selling at the high end of the market. A big part of Apple's continued growth is due to the fact that the iPhone's high price and reputation makes it a status symbol in Asia. Tarnishing that with ultra low-end products won't help them. They'd rather sell one iPhone at $200 profit than 10 Android phones at $10 profit.

(actually, this article claims LG's profit margin has dropped to $0.01 per Android phone. And HTC has lost so much money selling them they are on the verge of bankruptcy).

Market share doesn't really matter in this case, it's the portion of the market they control that matters. And even if that weren't the case, as long as the total market is increasing all companies can grow regardless of market share changes.

Comment Re:Apple is doomed (Score 1) 428

Yeah, seriously, it really doesn't matter what they put in the iPhone.

As long as they follow their current annual strategy of "even year, increment number, slightly redesign case, odd year, add an S, hype a bit more RAM and CPU in a live announcement in San Francisco" they are pretty much guaranteed to bring in $200B a year for the foreseeable future...

Comment Re: Apple is doomed (Score 1) 428

That would hurt Apple as much as Google, and maybe more.

Google pays Apple more than $1B a year to make it the default, as well as a share of ads served on iOS, estimated at being up to another billion. Looking it up, Google made about $9B on iOS ads, but only about $4-5B was from mobile Safari (the rest is from in-app ads, etc).

Even if the default was not Google, many users would just change it back to Google (I know I would - Yahoo and Bing suck ass), so say Google would lose $2-3B in revenue but then save $2B in payments to Apple. So it's a good deal for Google, but not a great deal. And, it's a also a good deal for Apple, because unless can find another ad provider who will pay more and generate more ad revenue, Apple would lose some amount that $2B a year they get from Google.

So, they are both making a reasonable return on the deal, and would both lose out if they cancelled it. Which makes sense, they are both very well run companies who don't throw around money without understanding their return on investment.

Comment Re:Apple is doomed (Score 2) 428

Actually, Apple is already seeing it. Their forecast for iPhone sales is way below last year. Probably partly because people are looking for cheaper phones, and early because they are keeping their old ones longer.

Of course a lot of this has to do with the fact you can't sustain the growth of a high end product like the iPhone once you have already reached all of those who can afford it; the new customers are going to have to start coming from countries and income classes that just can't afford a $600 phone.

I have another theory about this decrease in sales, though - now that all of the carries in US are switching from subsidized contracts to bring-your-own phone and/or a leasing model, people are finally starting to realize just how much they have been paying for their phone hardware over the years, and it's made them a lot more price-conscious about their phone purchases.

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