58% Russian speakers in 2001, and 12% Crimerian Tartars. In 1991 there was 0% Crimerian Tartars. It is likely more have returned since 2001, and more Ukranians have moved there as well.
Even with 60% Russian-speaking Crimerians, it still only takes 20% of them to consider themselves Russian-speaking Ukranians, or prefer a less corrupt government, and a fair election would never lead to joining the Russian federation. Of course a lot of the conflict in Ukraine has been about election fraud by the pro-russian parties, and the Crimean parliament makes the former Ukranian president look like an uncorruptable choirboy, so the fair elections depends a lot on foreign pressure and observers.
Still 1.8 million people would make a fair new small European country, and would give something that Putin could sell as victory and the West couldn't really complain about. An already autonomous state electing to be more autonomous?.. Everybody can live with that, so it would be the diplomatic outcome.