No, I am not admitted to the bar, but a good deal of my income comes from working on Open Source issues with attorneys, and I teach attorneys, with CLE credit awarded in some states, about Open Source legal issues. I am an expert witness on just the sort of issue that is being discussed.
"Aggregation" is the word we use for the combination of software items on a medium that are not derivative works of the other software. It doesn't really make sense to say "that aggregation is a derivative work", if it were derivative it would not be an aggregation.
I am just not coming up with a theory that would make the installer a derivative work of the payload. The installer package is a medium from which the payload can be extracted and becomes separate files, identical to their form before being archived, that is the function of the installer. The installer copies the and stores data the way that Emacs copies and stores the text that you type while it runs. Yet, nobody attempts to make the case that Emacs is a derivative work of your text, that would be absurd, even if the text, by itself, is highly protected and very valuable. Nor do we find people claiming that GCC is a derivative work of the software they compile.
If I was called on to testify, that's what I'd say.