... the "raw vs adjusted" argument has no bearing on the fact that the Karl paper reaches different conclusions, based on the available data, than just about everyone else, AND used highly questionable methods to reach those conclusions. ... [Jane Q. Public, 2015-07-18]
That's an opinion, not a fact. [Dumb Scientist]
Absolute bullshit. Karl et al. conclusion is an outlier. ... [Jane Q. Public, 2015-07-23]
If Jane/Lonny's opinion that Karl et al. used "highly questionable" methods were widely shared by scientists, Jane/Lonny wouldn't have had to say things like this to Dr. Gavin Schmidt (director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies) after Dr. Schmidt disagreed with Jane/Lonny's uninformed opinion.
... Karl et al. conclusion is an outlier. And you don't have to be a scientist to know it... if it weren't, there wouldn't have been news media all over the place reporting "No 'Hiatus' After All". Outliers are outliers. They can be recognized from their conclusions, as I did, but by lay people they can also often be recognized by the media uproar they stir. Simple logic says that if it hadn't been NEWS, it wouldn't have made a stir in the news. [Jane Q. Public, 2015-07-23]
Jane's method of spotting outliers via media uproar is cute, but it would be more rigorous to actually look at Fig 1 (a) and (b). The new global trend's central estimate is within the error bars of the old estimate. Ironically, Jane/Lonny made the same mistake two years ago regarding Cowtan and Way 2013, which yielded a trend similar to Karl et al. 2015. Perhaps Jane/Lonny forgot about that while ranting about "outliers"?
If Jane/Lonny would actually calculate a trend estimate with autocorrelated uncertainties (either using the code I've repeatedly given him, or by writing his own) then he'd realize that Karl et al. 2015 really wasn't news. For instance, years before Karl et al. 2015, I'd already told Jane/Lonny that "There hasn't been a statistically significant change in the warming rate, and there isn't a statistically significant difference between the projected and observed trends."
Again, I said this to Jane/Lonny long before Karl et al. 2015. Even without Karl et al. 2015, it's still clear that there hasn't been a statistically significant change in the warming rate, and there isn't a statistically significant difference between the projected and observed trends.
That's not news to anyone who's calculated a trend estimate with autocorrelated uncertainties. Have you done that yet? Will you ever do that, Jane/Lonny?
Apparently NOAA and NASA think nobody in 1937 knew how to read a thermometer. I find that idea... unlikely. [Lonny Eachus, 2015-07-04]
No adjustment performed by NOAA or NASA implies they think people in 1937 didn't know how to read thermometers. [Dumb Scientist]
Again, nonsense. NOAA and NASA assume that high and low temperature records were taking at particular times of day. There is no rational basis for making that assumption on a large scale. It might be true in many cases but before there were standards, people at least attempted to take high temperature readings at the hottest part of the day, and low temperature readings at the coldest. Again, that's just simple logic, which seems to be beyond your ken. [Jane Q. Public, 2015-07-23]
Again, your accusation that "NOAA and NASA think nobody in 1937 knew how to read a thermometer" is completely baseless and incompatible with an understanding of how NOAA and NASA actually correct for time of observation bias (TOBS).
Six's thermometers have automatically recorded maximum and minimum temperatures since ~1780, so there's no reason to speculate about whether people "attempted" to take high temperature readings at the hottest part of the day. That has happened automatically for over two centuries.
As Dr. Venema explains, calculating the daily mean temperature by averaging the high and low temperatures isn't always the best choice, especially if the diurnal temperature range is smaller than day-to-day variability. The best choice, of course, would be to measure the temperature at every instant during the day and then average all those measurements.
That's feasible with 2015 electronics, but it wasn't in 1937. Instead, some scientists recorded the temperature four times a day, at 0, 6, 12, and 18 hours universal time (UTC). Other scientists didn't like getting up in the middle of the night, so they measured three times a day at 7, 14 and 21 hours local time.
NOAA and NASA aren't assuming that high and low temperature records were taken at particular times of day. The scientists who recorded temperatures didn't just write down the temperature, they also wrote down when it was recorded.
That's why it should be obvious that correcting for time of observation bias means that NOAA and NASA think that people in 1937 knew how to read thermometers and clocks. Otherwise all those years of careful work by countless unnamed scientists couldn't ever be used to correct for time of observation bias.
But hey, why not hurl baseless and incoherent accusations at NOAA and NASA? You don't have to make sense, just spread confusion.
The rest of this is your same old "bringing up old shit and inappropriately trying to insert it into current conversation", as you did above by inserting statements made weeks ago, entirely out-of-context. When are YOU going to learn that tactic is utterly dishonest and despicable, not to mention just plain invalid logical argument? You've argued here with at least several things I've said in the past which had absolutely nothing to do with the context of the current conversation. Not only does that not refute my point, it rather shows you for the asshole you are. That comment is based on my strong opinion of your consistent (and recorded) actions. [Jane Q. Public, 2015-07-23]
Charming. So you won't retract your baseless accusation that NOAA adjusted 1937 downward when they actually adjusted it upward?
You won't retract your accusation that adjustments are "always cooler in the past and warmer now" or your claim that the government's own unmanipulated data shows no significant warming since around 1900? Even now that you know the government's own "unmanipulated" data show even more global surface warming since around 1900 than their "manipulated" data do?
Can we agree that it's stupid to call those adjustments "fraud"?