This depends on the possible quality and size of a universe simulation. Is it possible to simulate the entirety of a universe using only a finite subset of that universe?

If yes, then there are (at maximum) an infinite number of simulated universes and and infinite number of recursively simulated universes. Thus the probability of us being the root/real universe is zero ("of measure zero" if you ask a mathematician). Perhaps the holographic principle comes into play to allow the entire universe to be simulated without using the resources of the entire universe.

If no, then there can be only a finite number of simulations in the observable universe. Also, each of the simulated universes is a smaller and/or less-precise version of the simulating universe. In this case, there are (at maximum) a finite number of simulated universes and a finite number of recursively simulated universes capable of hosting intelligent life (a cellular automata with only one cell could hardly be called intelligent). In this scenario, there is a non-zero probability that we live in the root/real universe.

I lean towards no, but I don't have any evidence, just a bias for thinking myself real.