When apps become browser-based apps, we 'might' see more switching. But I still doubt that...I had a few (non-techie) friends that wanted the next Windows desperately, even though they didn't really need it, they only used it for nothing more than a simple OS, and when they got it they complained about how this and that was changed. One was totally confused that the Start button was gone. Yet if I mention changing to Linux, they don't want to, even though the change required is not much different than the previous Windows OS.
I don't think Linux is the problem, people are the problem. And until the general population is willing to accept change, we'll be stuck here forever.