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Comment Re:i love infrastructure (Score 1) 237 237

china says the spratlys are on ancient chinese maps (as if that's justification, just mapping something). no chinese ever lived there

all that happened is someone drew a nine dotted line on a napkin 70 years ago:

china plays the long game. they're an empire which has expanded and contracted for dozens of centuries. the area russia stole from them has been chinese many centuries more than russian

and is currently oveflowing with chinese:

remember how texas became part of the usa?

china wants resources

china is becoming imperialistic (they are boldly grabbing islands and you're claiming they aren't bold?)

outer manchuria was gobbled from them during the century of humiliation and unequal treaties

so the chinese are on the long view. they're just waiting. when the time comes, they will pounce, and no one will be able to do anything about it

outer manchuria is there's, they are certain of it, and when the time comes, it will be there's again. all it takes is a few more decades of russia continuing to rot economically, socially, and politically as it is, and china to continue to grow economically (and if they have social and political upheaval, then an ultranationalist demagogue may seize control and we'll see this happening sooner)

Comment Re:i love infrastructure (Score 1) 237 237

it won't be a nuclear war

siberia is already overflowing with chinese. china can complain about the poor treatment of minorities

sound familiar?

run it like russia in georgia in ukraine: inflame and create puppet separatist movements

russia can bitch as loudly as it wants that china is behind the whole thing. china can simply say it's a local uprising

if russia tries anything militarily against china itself, muscular china will smack dying russia (this is in 20 years, considering russia's current economic trajectory and china's current economic trajectory)

meanwhile china will have much more money, and simply provide "humanitarian aid" to chinese and other "repressed minorities" in siberia

small weak independent state in siberia will be created, and china will dominate them with money and social influence. no need for actual declared political control

there is no openly declared war of total destruction, so there is no reason to use nukes

Comment Re:i love infrastructure (Score 1) 237 237

you're talking about an openly declared war of total destruction

if russia continues it's economic, political, and social degradation, it will become weak enough that china can free siberia the way texas was carved from mexico: an uprising by locals, controlled by china covertly. buy off corrupt russian officials, provide "humanitarian aid", etc

then there is no war declared and no one for russia to nuke

russia can whine and bitch that china is supporting the whole thing, and china can just say it's a local uprising

if russia attacks china anyway, now muscular china has every right to openly attack dying russia

either way, you absorb the "independent state" later

sounds familiar?

yes, because this is how russia operates in abhakazia (georgian province), eastern ukraine, crimea: inflame, create, and encourage a puppet separatist movement

so what i'd like to see is: in 20-30 years china rushes in to "help" chinese minorities abused by russia

just for the irony

watch russia complain in blind hypocrisy

ukrainians and georgians are nodding their heads knowingly right now

already, chinese minorities in siberia are huge and a worry for moscow:

it won't be but 10-20 years before the chinese are running siberia by economic and social fiat, undeclared, informally, if not officially politically, with russia's weak economy and small population. the actual political control can come later, even much later

siberia breaks from moscow with chinese covert encouragement, just like russia in ukraine and georgia today, and china runs siberia as small weak puppet states

Comment Re:Two words: global warming (Score 1) 237 237

well yeah, on a trajectory of 100-200 years. i'm talking about right now

i even said so in my comment you are replying to: "someday, in only a few decades maybe the way technology and world populations are going, then the scheme would realize a profit" over a shorter period

Comment Re:i love infrastructure (Score 3, Interesting) 237 237


china is currently picking on vietnam, philippines, japan, india, etc., thugging han imperialist efforts to steal land

meanwhile, all is quiet on the northern border with crazy, dying russia

at some point, china will notice that it's stealing speck islands and barren mountains from its neighbors according to hilarious historical made-up "justifications," when russia actually stole vast tracts of resource-rich land from china only 150 years ago:

then things will get interesting with the derelict work force you are talking about, who can easily be handed a gun and told to charge. perhaps china will have some social/ political upheaval, an ultranationalist demagogue will take charge, and, like after every revolution (french, russian, arab spring, etc.) things quickly turn imperial on its neighbors

russia is a failed cult of personality petrostate that everyone hates because it also is a neoimperial thug (only on weak neighbors of course, like any insecure bully). it will continue to decay and have old rusty weapons someday

but china is a rising power a huge economy and with 10x the population of russia will continue to militarize with sophisticated advanced weaponry

THAT is the story with china and siberia, not this silly bridge

the world powers have to talk about how to divide russia when it finally implodes, that's the end game of the trajectory the joke country is currently on

japan gets back sakhalin, kirils

kamchatka would have to be "occupied briefly" by japan and the usa so it is not completely overrun by china when the inevitable happens

i welcome the new countries of tuva, irkutsk, yakusia, etc. (quickly and easily run over by china, and now new north korean style puppet states: i hope not, hopefully more like mongolia)

russia gets pushed back to the urals

and let's not even get started on the revenge that will happen in the european side of things...

hey germany, want to revive konigsberg?

finalnd, you deserve karelia back

abkhazia, crimea...

it's a continuation of the rot and decay that started in 25 years ago with the collapse of the USSR. that's the long term trend that has never been reversed. a brief lull with some petroleum money that is now gone, and mafia goon putin putting a face of denial on that, it doesn't change that trajectory

if you think the kgb thug chest thumping by putin on small, weak georgia and ukraine is supposed to impress anyone other than propagandized neoserfs in a walled media garden inside russia. no: the thugging just isolates russia internationally and makes everyone despise them. so they have absolutely zero friends, and enemies all around when the longterm implosion deepens

and if you think russia's nukes would prevent this scenario: no, any use of nukes would only hasten it

russia: you lost a maritime conflict with a rising japan and then a civil war 100 years ago. get ready for a much more humiliating conflict with china, and much more internal decay

i give it 20-50 years. sooner if china gets internal strife soon and therefore the desperate need to redirect that energy to han ultranationalism on the border

i would actually prefer if it happens in putin's lifetime. let's see that asswipe humiliated. unfortunately, he'll probably die a "hero" and then all the heroic destruction he's done to russia politically and socially will result in the country's serious collapse after he dies

Comment Re:i love infrastructure (Score 1) 237 237

ok, what does that change?

opening a small part a little early offsets by a tiny fraction the tiny amounts that would make the route profitable

we're talking about comparing the price of shipping on a container ship and the price of going by rail/ truck on this crazy route

Comment i love infrastructure (Score 1) 237 237

but this is nuts

if the cost is {Y}

and the profit per year is {X}

then 500 years * {X} = {Y} roughly

the cost, including building the roads/ rails to get to the bridge, greatly dwarfs, by many orders of magnitude, the quantity of commerce that would flow

finally, compare the cost to your average container ship fees and where you want to ship it

waiting for a many century payoff is not wise

someday, in only a few decades maybe the way technology and world populations are going, then the scheme would realize a profit in maybe 50 years

but we're not there yet

file this story under "will happen when i am a very, very old man or after"

Comment Re:Seems like a piece is missing (Score 1) 136 136

they can rule against them in an international tribunal

The Philippines' attempt to haul China to an international tribunal is a problem because it is invoking the very compulsory jurisdiction which China has disavowed since 2006. But even if the Philippine attempt to arbitrate fails, any marshaled argument can subsist, and that case may be fielded in other venues. If a military engagement were to ensue, the same case could be brought to the United Nations Security Council -- the principal repository of enforcement powers under the UN system. A state can be found to be in violation of a substantive legal norm even without a coercive or compulsory judgment in a given venue, provided, of course, that there is truth to the argument supporting a violation, and that it is acknowledged by an alternative venue.

While China is disavowing the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) against the Philippines, it is expressly invoking UNCLOS provisions in its claims against Japan -- so it wants to have its cake and eat it, too. In 2009, China submitted a claim over the Senkaku Islands (which, like Scarborough Shoal and the Spratlys, are believed to be fuel rich) and turned to UNCLOS rules in defining and delineating its continental shelf beyond the 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone, again within the meaning of UNCLOS. There is some international legal doctrine supporting the view that a state's acts in one place can be used as an admission and adversely bind that State in another set of circumstances.

a legal claim against china won't make the han imperialists move, but the ruling will stay dormant

then, after any sort of conflict in the future where china loses, china is going to lose these islands in the peace treaty

The cost of feathers has risen, even down is up!