Fact: Microsoft is selling exponentially more licenses with Windows 8 than it did with Windows 7.
Huh? Microsoft themselves has already admitted that Windows 8 sales are at nearly the EXACT same pace as Windows 7 sales.
Okay... How about actual web usage: http://www.zdnet.com/statcounter-windows-8-license-sales-not-yet-translating-into-usage-7000008148/
Even though Microsoft sold as many licenses of Windows 8 as they did of Windows 7, Windows 7 saw much higher actual usage after one month on the market compared to Windows 8 after one month on the market. Windows 7 made up 4.93% of internet users 1 month after launch compared to Windows 8's 1.31% 1 month after launch. That paints a pretty bleak picture of actual Windows 8 usage. Even Windows Vista managed to get nearly 2% of web browser share after the first month.
So lets assume that both statistics are correct. Microsoft sold 40 million licenses of Windows 8, the same as Windows 7 for the same time period AND Windows 8's web usage 1 month after launch is only 27% of Windows 7's web usage 1 month after launch. Let's add in a few more facts, like NewEgg saying that windows 8 sales are slow and that sales of Windows devices are down 21% from last year since the launch of Windows 8. Based on these facts, we can extrapolate a story.
The story I extrapolated is this: Microsoft sold 40 million licenses of Windows 8 in several ways: 1) end users taking advantage of the cheap $40 upgrade option that has never been offered before, 2) the volume license sales of Windows that are now Windows 8 licenses that are almost ALL being downgraded to Windows 7 because Microsoft no longer sells Windows 7 licenses, and 3) a whole TON of licenses to OEMs so they could get the initial supply of Windows 8 devices in to sales channels for launch.
So lets go over these sales paths:
1) The end user upgrades are legitimate sales of Windows 8. However, I would expect these numbers to be much higher than the initial Windows 7 upgrade sales simply because of the huge discount that didn't exist for the Windows 7 launch. The $40 upgrade price is either a 60% or 80% discount depending on whether you would buy the home or professional edition. I would expect to see a small rush of people buying to take advantage of the lower price...even over the normal PC enthusiast sales of people who must have the latest-and-greatest. The $40 upgrade option would also explain why direct to consumer upgrades of Windows 8 are selling at a faster pace than Windows 7 did. When you give a very hefty discount to pretty much everyone, people are going to jump on the deal.
2) volume license sales: Business need Windows licenses and you can only buy Windows 8 now. So even though the business is installing Windows 7 with those Windows 8 licenses, they are still being counted as a "Windows 8 sale". These are licenses Microsoft would've sold whether Windows 8 was released or not. Also, i'd be curious to know whether Microsoft is including any previous Windows 7 licenses with Software Assurance as a "Windows 8 sale" as well.
3) OEM sales: This is where I bet Microsoft sold the bulk of their Windows 8 licenses. OEMs had to buy their initial set of licenses to cover their initial stock of Windows 8 devices being shipped to sales channels. World wide PC sales for 2012 are expected to be around 350 million units...or about 30 million PCs per month. I would also expect the sales numbers to be more heavy during the back-to-school and holiday shopping periods, so weighted more towards the end of the year. So PC manufacturers probably planned on selling around 40 million PCs for the month. As an OEM, a month's worth of expected sales sounds like a good number to buy for my initial purchase of Windows 8 licenses and to push out in to sales channels.
So to me, it sounds like Microsoft is announcing they sold pretty much the exact number of Windows 8 licenses they would've sold anyway, whether or not one single person actually bought a PC/Device with Windows 8 on it or not. Combine that information with the fact that the RETAILERS are saying that PC sales are DOWN 20% this year compared to last year and it sounds like ACTUAL sales of Windows 8 licenses to end users is down.
Don't get me wrong, Windows 8 will still sell a few hundred million copies during it's lifetime. Microsoft sold over 100 million copies of Windows Vista in it's first year. This is simply because people NEED to buy PCs. But history has judged Windows Vista to be one of the bad versions that Microsoft has produced.
And finally, to put the "40 million licenses in the first month of sales" in to perspective: For Windows Vista, Microsoft announced that it had sold 20 million licenses of Vista in the first month's of sales which took place in Feb of 2007. Since 2007 had barely started, i'll look at 2006's PC sales figures: approx 239 million computers sold in 2006...which is approximately 20 million licenses per month, at the time. What this means is that, after accounting for the growth of the PC market, sales of Windows 8 is on the same sales pace as Windows Vista...and we all know how well Windows Vista turned out.
Also, considering that the PC market has grown from a little over 300 million PC sales in 2009 for Windows 7's release to 350 million in 2012, it means that Windows 8's sales are actually DOWN once you take in to account for the growth of the PC market. In order for Windows 8 to be on the same pace as Windows 7, it would've had to have sold almost 47 million licenses in the first month.