for what its worth, I think you are really stretching the limit of "success". Solar City, Tesla, and SpaceX are not successful by traditional metrics. They don't make money. All success so far is self-perpetuating hype, which in fact may dramatically assist long term success, but has not yet. These companies are all valued on future promises based on quite uncertain growth projections, which may or may not pan out. I'm not really familiar with SpaceX because its private, but the only money made on Tesla and Solar City is by speculators who have managed to "sell" promises to other spectators. Investments in these companies haven't paid off by generating income. I think this would be the basic formula to decide success. Not fantastic growth that could torpedo at any moment and leave a 20b hole in speculator pockets.
Solar city's anticipated success is based on a business plan they are already transitioning away from, lofty valuations of future revenue will not materialize as they are forced to abandon their cash cow, principally due to well-financed competitors who are willing to pass on more of the economic benefits of solar energy to their customers. The amazing thing, is that despite approximately 6 months of this knowledge, most analysts have not substantially reduced targets based on solar city's own information. That should tell you something about the importance of "hype" or "future promises" in determining the "success" of a company.
