"Employers will see short-term job hopping and wonder if the reason isn't you."
Not if they are aware of the the Theory of Almighty Redundants, which in a nutshell goes like this:
A competent worker is a perfectionist and is thorough, and knows his or her worth, regardless of economic conditions or the stupidity or otherwise of upper management. They rarely stay employed though, because of the other kind of worker, the Almighty Redundant.
These are the "real dirt-bags" that "stay employed" because "plenty of people in HR and other decision making positions who will underestimate and undervalue some while overestimating and overvaluing others"
Fact is, the Almighty Redundants are just as aware of their lack of worth, and in a recession/downturn, when the proverbial "axe" is about to swing, protect themselves with arrays of fraternity /sorority /ass-licking /cock-sucking subservience and sycophancy. The result is, they survive, and the good ones move on.
With every successive downturn and swinging of the proverbial axe, the Almighty Redundants consolidate, and eventually a point is reached where none remain other than the Almighty Redundants.
At this point the company is doomed beyond any salvation, and no hirings and firings will recover the company from certain death.
Any company worth its salt and still holding its own commercially will be well advised to be on its guard to avoid hiring Almighty Redundants, particularly in a recession, and should also be on the eternal lookout for Competents, who are neither people with long or short job terms on their CVs, but simply people good at what they do, period.