Comment Re:AI + organisations will be the real problem (Score 1) 688
I imagine for people already driving there won't be much change in cost. Once you've been on the road five years or so the insurance companies have a pretty good idea if you are a high risk driver or not from your records (both insurance records and traffic offense records).
Where things could get nasty is for people new to manual driving, I would think the combiantion of "inexperianced" and "wants to drive for fun rather than utility" is going to end up as a pretty high risk category. At least here in the UK it's already prohibitively expensive for a new young driver to insure a fast car and even with a basic econobox it's not unheard of for the insurance to cost more than the car (One teenager here even resorted to driving a tractor because car insurance was unaffordable,e).
Which means 50 years later there would be relatively few people on the road with sufficient manual driving experiance to get manual driving insurance at a reasonable price.