Take self driving cars for example. Once they're good enough to be on the road safely, insurance companies will notice that their accident statistics are lower than human drivers. So first of all they'll lower the insurance for them.
I agree, it only makes sense.
Somewhat later they'll put up insurance for human drivers.
This makes not sense at all. Why would they increase insurance for humans? Do you think humans will become more dangerous and reckless than they are now? Just because there are more self driving cars on the road? I completely disagree. I'd think that humans will be less prone to getting into accidents precisely because they'll be surrounded by more self driving cars, which are more predictable, better able to avoid accidents caused by another party, and won't give people road rage by acting like jerks.
Then after that some companies will refuse insurance for any manually driven car. Then they all will.
What's the logic behind that? Insurance companies refusing to insurance which is profitable for them?
And not long after that governments will ban human driven vehicles entirely from public roads.. I reckon this time frame will be about 30-50 years.
Here you're starting to make sense again. Conclusion seems straightforward - if the self driving cars are more efficient, less accident prone and faster than human driven cars, then as a society, we would prefer a fully automated transportation system. Remember that for the vast majority of us, going from point A to point B is a chore. We just want to get to point B as soon and as hassle-free as possible.
Now this might come as a surprise to some of the technokids out there - but some of us actually *like* driving and don't want a computer doing it for us.
Sure, no surprise, there are people who like sailing, walking, riding the high wheel, why wouldn't some people like driving? The question is would you still drive if you have a faster and less stressful, even maybe a more productive way of getting to point B? Moreover, you probably like driving because you've been doing it for a long time and you grew up in a culture that does it a lot. In a few decades, people will be growing up with self driving cars all around them. Actually driving will be an activity practiced by few. It might even become a hipster thing.
As fas as building AI goes, this famous quote is very valid - just because they can doesn't mean they should.
I find that quote meaningless. X doesn't imply Y is one of the weakest and least informative relationships.
Note. I do like to drive.
Going to the moon while the economy is crumbling, foreign countries are invaded and human rights are being trampled.
Are you talking about the U.S. or Russia?
Russia, obviously.
The US is not going to the moon anytime soon with NASA's budget.
Software production is assumed to be a line function, but it is run like a staff function. -- Paul Licker
