Catch up on stories from the past week (and beyond) at the Slashdot story archive

 



Forgot your password?
typodupeerror
×

Comment Re:Precious Snowflake (Score 1, Insightful) 323

It probably has more to do with torturing people, blowing up innocent women and children via drones, 100+ years of interference in other governments (including supporting drug smugglers, funding violent overthrow of democratically elected leaders, funding oppressive regimes, funding death squads), domestic police murdering people, and generally being a dick that sees no wrong with itself.

How many people do you know that actually do that? Small number right? How many people do you know that just go along with that and don't question anything? Large number right? That last group is the "everyone's a winner" crowd.

Comment Re:I saw How We Got To Now too (Score 4, Informative) 83

Old ways of doing things often hang on an unexpectedly long time because a mature technology has the advantages of ubiquity. People are comfortable with it, all the kinks have all been worked out, and its popularity gives it a huge structural cost advantage.

You can't think in terms of how expensive it would be to have a 50 lb block of ice delivered to your doorstep today. The *marginal* cost of having ice delivered is nil when everyone on your street is getting it. Everyone had an actual "icebox", and since it had no moving parts it never needed servicing or replacing. So when electric refrigerators became available it was a choice of keeping your perfectly good icebox with its reliable, regularly scheduled ice delivery, or buy a cranky, complicated, expensive piece of machinery that would pay for itself just in time to need replacing. If the ice industry killed itself by shipping polluted ice, it's probably because they couldn't expand their supply to meet demand.

I'll bet the grandchildren of kids learning to drive today will find the whole concept of a massive, truck-based gasoline distribution network absurdly complicated. But it works because it's massive, and because it's ubiquitous we assume it is simple -- which it is on the consumer end. On the production end it is fantastically complicated and labor intensive.

Speaking of the Boston ice industry, I live a half mile from a 20 acre (8 ha) pond that supported a major ice operation in the 1800s. Pictures show men harvesting blocks of ice eighteen, even twenty-four inches thick for shipment around the world. In the non-winter months the companies operated water-powered mills. Ice was a classic case of exploiting slack resources. Ice meant no head for the water powered mill, and an idle workforce. So electric refrigeration wasn't the only pressure on the ice industry: electric factories would have raised the price of winter labor.

Today that same pond never gets more than a couple of inches of ice, even in last year's "polar vortex" event -- you can't make ice that thick in a couple weeks, you need a cold winter that starts early and doesn't let go for months. When I was a kid this pond iced over in December. Now it ices over in Janurary, or Feburary, or some years not at all except for the lee end. In January I can fish from my canoe on ponds where I would once have been ice-fishing.

Comment Re:Established science CANNOT BE QUESTIONED! (Score 1) 719

I think we are getting somewhere. Where is the evidence for this statement? That is what I ask for. Show me one paper studying peoples behaviour purposefully spreading measles.

And what would the point of that paper be, aside from causing a considerable amount of human suffering? You have yet to explain why we should do that. I don't see the point of having a tiny bit more confidence in our vaccine by having a somewhat more rigorous test at such a cost.

I have provided quotes indicating it is plausible one of these behavioral effects account for up to 90% of the effect

No. 90% is just one order of magnitude. You have provided quotes that indicate up to one order of magnitude out of more than three orders of magnitude might be due to such effects.

I also find it implausible there were only 100-200k cases of chicken pox in the united states per year when nearly everyone I know had it.

Reported cases of chicken pox.

Comment Re:Real terrorist threat level (Score 1) 91

There seems to be an option that you missed: seeing if there are indicators that terrorists have an interest in striking.

Major terrorist attack is ‘inevitable’ as Isis fighters return, say EU officials
EU’s 28 governments are said to be struggling to respond to threat of Islamist fighters coming back from Iraq and Syria

Europe faces 'greatest terror threat ever' from jihadists in Iraq and Syria

ETA, IRA, Baader-Meinhof, Red Brigades, all were small potatoes compared to the potential of the Islamists.

Comment Re:Established science CANNOT BE QUESTIONED! (Score 1) 719

Here is evidence. In 2014, the US had 610 reported cases through mid-November this year. In most of the previous years, reported cases were under 100. Even if we took this high as an annual average, underreported by a factor of ten, and a human lifespan of a century, we get a life time risk of catching measles at 0.2% in the US. Meanwhile let's look at the related disease, chicken pox.

Note this has a graph showing chicken pox cases consistently over 140,000 per year in the US for two decades prior to 1995, when a vaccine for that was introduced. Since 1999, no year has experienced over 50,000 reported cases and most years exhibit far fewer cases. Eyeballing the graph, I believe I would get roughly 50% of the population experiencing a reported case of chicken pox using the same calculation as above for the pre-vaccination years. This would roughly be the average annual rate of measles, were it not being severely curbed by something.

Note also that the decline in reported measles cases and the decline in chicken pox cases do not correlate, meaning that it probably isn't a change in human behavior responsible. Similarly, they experience a huge, sharp decline immediately following introduce of the respective vaccines.

Note also the reported number of cases of measles peaks at almost 800,000 cases in 1958! We have more than three orders of magnitude reduction of reported measles cases in 56 years with a growing population which doesn't correlate with human behavior.

Perhaps you are not familiar with the "evidence-based medicine" movement which calls blinded RCTs the "gold-standard" of evidence when testing a treatment.

Again, absence of a blind RCT study doesn't mean the observation is wrong.

A more than three orders of magnitude change doesn't require blinded RCTs to be observed. The "gold standard" is sufficient, but it is not necessary, to confirm observations that are orders of magnitude in strength. Finally, a blind RCT requires that some people get exposed to measles without the protection of the vaccine (the "controls"). That creates significant suffering and risk of death or major injury in order to confirm a strong signal. What is there to gain scientifically that justifies that price in suffering? I see no justification for it.

Comment Re:Real terrorist threat level (Score 1) 91

Given the fact that security at airports is not very good and nothing really bad has happened in the last decade, what does this tell us about the real terrorist threat level in Europe?

That much of Europe has probably been almost lulled into the level of complacency that will make a truly horrifying attack possible?

Comment Re:In other news: (Score 2, Insightful) 91

In other words: This shows that there isn't a real danger that this security theater is protecting us from.

No, that just shows that the Intent, Capability, and Opportunity haven't yet aligned to result in an incident or attack... that you know of. Absence of an attack isn't the same as absence of a threat. And you're kidding yourself if you think there aren't terrorists in Germany, or flying through it, that wouldn't attack the airport, planes, or other places in Germany specifically or Europe in general.

Attacks on Frankfurt Airport, Ramstein Planned: Three Islamist Terror Suspects Arrested in Germany - September 05, 2007

Germany Sends 240 Cops to Arrest Nine ISIS Suspects in Cologne - November 12th 2014

Slashdot Top Deals

Two can Live as Cheaply as One for Half as Long. -- Howard Kandel

Working...