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Comment Re:Established science CANNOT BE QUESTIONED! (Score 1) 719

Here is evidence. In 2014, the US had 610 reported cases through mid-November this year. In most of the previous years, reported cases were under 100. Even if we took this high as an annual average, underreported by a factor of ten, and a human lifespan of a century, we get a life time risk of catching measles at 0.2% in the US. Meanwhile let's look at the related disease, chicken pox.

Note this has a graph showing chicken pox cases consistently over 140,000 per year in the US for two decades prior to 1995, when a vaccine for that was introduced. Since 1999, no year has experienced over 50,000 reported cases and most years exhibit far fewer cases. Eyeballing the graph, I believe I would get roughly 50% of the population experiencing a reported case of chicken pox using the same calculation as above for the pre-vaccination years. This would roughly be the average annual rate of measles, were it not being severely curbed by something.

Note also that the decline in reported measles cases and the decline in chicken pox cases do not correlate, meaning that it probably isn't a change in human behavior responsible. Similarly, they experience a huge, sharp decline immediately following introduce of the respective vaccines.

Note also the reported number of cases of measles peaks at almost 800,000 cases in 1958! We have more than three orders of magnitude reduction of reported measles cases in 56 years with a growing population which doesn't correlate with human behavior.

Perhaps you are not familiar with the "evidence-based medicine" movement which calls blinded RCTs the "gold-standard" of evidence when testing a treatment.

Again, absence of a blind RCT study doesn't mean the observation is wrong.

A more than three orders of magnitude change doesn't require blinded RCTs to be observed. The "gold standard" is sufficient, but it is not necessary, to confirm observations that are orders of magnitude in strength. Finally, a blind RCT requires that some people get exposed to measles without the protection of the vaccine (the "controls"). That creates significant suffering and risk of death or major injury in order to confirm a strong signal. What is there to gain scientifically that justifies that price in suffering? I see no justification for it.

Comment Re:Real terrorist threat level (Score 1) 91

Given the fact that security at airports is not very good and nothing really bad has happened in the last decade, what does this tell us about the real terrorist threat level in Europe?

That much of Europe has probably been almost lulled into the level of complacency that will make a truly horrifying attack possible?

Comment Re:In other news: (Score 2, Insightful) 91

In other words: This shows that there isn't a real danger that this security theater is protecting us from.

No, that just shows that the Intent, Capability, and Opportunity haven't yet aligned to result in an incident or attack... that you know of. Absence of an attack isn't the same as absence of a threat. And you're kidding yourself if you think there aren't terrorists in Germany, or flying through it, that wouldn't attack the airport, planes, or other places in Germany specifically or Europe in general.

Attacks on Frankfurt Airport, Ramstein Planned: Three Islamist Terror Suspects Arrested in Germany - September 05, 2007

Germany Sends 240 Cops to Arrest Nine ISIS Suspects in Cologne - November 12th 2014

Submission + - GCHQ Warns It Is Losing Track Of Serious Criminals (telegraph.co.uk)

An anonymous reader writes: The Telegraph reports, "GCHQ has lost track of some of the most dangerous crime lords and has had to abort surveillance on others after Edward Snowden revealed their tactics ... The spy agency has suffered “significant” damage in its ability to monitor and capture serious organised criminals following the exposes by the former CIA contractor. Intelligence officers are now blind to more than a quarter of the activities of the UK’s most harmful crime gangs after they changed their communications methods in the wake of the Snowden leaks. One major drug smuggling gang has been able to continue flooding the UK with Class A narcotics unimpeded for the last year after changing their operations. More intense tracking of others has either been abandoned or not started because of fears the tactics are now too easy to spot and will force the criminals to “go dark” and be lost sight of completely. ... The GCHQ works with the NCA to combat the most serious organised crime groups who cause the most harm to the UK. They include drug smuggling networks, gun runners, paedophiles, human traffickers, money launders and fraudsters. Serious organised crime costs the UK £24 billion a year, according to the Government, and involves around 5,500 active gangs, made up of 37,000 people. " — More at the Telegraph:How criminals have changed tactics after Edward Snowden leaks

Submission + - South Korean power plants to conduct cyber-attack drills following hack (thestack.com)

An anonymous reader writes: South Korea’s nuclear operator has been targeted in a cyber-attack, with hackers threatening people to “stay away” from three of the country’s nuclear reactors should they not cease operations by Christmas. The stolen data is thought to be non-critical information, and both the company and state officials have assured that the reactors are safe. However, KHNP has said that it will be conducting a series of security drills over the next two days at four power plants to ensure they can all withstand a cyber-attack. The hacks come amid accusations by the U.S. that North Korea may be responsible for the punishing hack on Sony Pictures. Concerns have mounted that Pyongyang may initiate cyber strikes against industrial and social targets in the U.S. and South Korea.

Comment Re:Has NASA done all that badly? (Score 1) 156

I don't see that as even remotely relevant. The point as I see it, is that NASA prior to Apollo used its contemporary advantages to wring as much value out of its funding and available resources, such as using rockets which were already mostly developed rather than rolling its own or exploiting economies of scale. Modern NASA does not. There is a remarkable blindness to cost, outcome, and goals.

Comment Re:Hard to do sample return with MER class rovers (Score 1) 156

One of the big drivers for MSL and the skycrane landing system was the ability to put more mass in a precise location on the surface of Mars, which is something you kind of need for sample return.

No, you don't need that level of precision. And you could have always worked on getting that precision with the MERs. Six more vehicles gives you plenty of opportunity to improve landing precision.

And the quest for more capability is a common NASA failure mode. What is the point of obtaining costly capabilities you don't use?

Comment Re:Yet another clueless story on automation (Score 1) 628

We're talking about future developments that will apply everywhere.

I notice that you say a number of wrong things in your comments on this story. The most important is this one:

The problem is that median wages have been stagnating for decades.

Not in the developing world. For example, the first chart at this link shows over 60% growth in real income (adjusted for inflation) for the global median wage over the period 1988-2008. How does a 60+% growth in global median wages translate into "have been stagnating for decades"? They don't. You are ignoring 4/5 of the world's population.

The whole point of this topic is that as the supply of labor (provided by workers and/or robots) goes up, the value goes down

No mention of demand for that labor. Supply of labor has been going up for centuries, yet it is more valued than ever.

If the demand for productive labor can be filled by more robots, the value of human labor can still stay at zero.

The non sequitur.

You certainly could get to a point where it's just too much of a bother to even keep track of a low-achieving human employee vs. having a robot do it. Those people could essentially become unemployable.

We could always make it less of a bother to keep track of low-achieving humans. This is my theme throughout this discussion.

So why should I believe what you have to say about the future, when you are so painfully wrong about the present?

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