Groupon seems to me like one of those ideas we'll look back in retrospect and think, "Why was it worth that much? It was so obvious!"
The idea of landing a big number of first-time customers sounds great until the customers start coming in. From the experiences of business owners I know, Grouponers were, simply put, cheap (not condemning cheap people here, as the times demand it for many.) If the groupon is "get $50 for $25," you better damn be sure most customers will spend the $50 and not a penny more. And if it's a restaurant, they'll tip on the $25.
I expect that those customers will not be back; they will move on to the next goupon.They're not looking for a new place to eat; they're looking for a deal.
And for consumers, the deals are already being watered down by the typical (one month free at the gym, or free karate classes for a week) that you see everywhere.
As for the businesses themselves,I wonder how many more of these kind of situations we'll see - a restaurant using a Groupon-like company hoping to land quick cash in desperation.
Also, from my conversations with people who own businesses, Groupon's sales approach is very aggressive. They put dollar signs in the business owner's eyes. But eventually, they'll get found out. Right now, people don't want to miss out on this since all the cool kids are doing it.
Of course there are businesses who've had great results with Groupon. I just think it's lunacy to think they're worth $15B.