Despite Apple's insane press coverage and a Silicon Valley-centric view of reporters, the iPhone is still only 1/6 of the market in smartphones. A spectacular success for a newcomer, but not market domination. Even iPod, Apple's most successful product, has less than 1/4 market share. Apple has never managed to dominate a market. At best, they hit a peak at 15-20% and then slowly decline. In the end, there are only so many people willing to pay $500-$900 for an iPhone (and that's what it costs, whether it's hidden in subscription fees or paid up front).

Android, on the other hand, has the potential for some really low-cost devices ($100-$200), and its greater openness both towards carries and towards applications mean that it will likely overtake the iPhone in a couple of years.

Of course, the iPhone won't be "killed", just like the Mac won't be killed. Apple's market share dropped from an all-time high of 15% to a couple of percent and now is back at 3-4% worldwide, but it never disappeared.

GP does get a key point: The software is key. Carriers (and freaking Verizon in particular) in the US simply refused to understand this. They build the network, while all the innovation is in the handsets and the software, but for some reason, US carriers seem to think they are the true innovators and handset providers are fluff. Now that Verizon has screwed up on handsets for three years straight, they finally realize that their strength is simply the network they build. Maybe they've been listening to their own adds. They're finally going to ship a modern phone, without screwing up the software first. Stupidity at Verizon may be going out of style.

Anyway, as said before on slashdot, Android vs iPhone is just like Windows vs Mac all over again. With Verizon on board, Motorola building 20 new Android phones next year, and 50 Android sets in the works around the world, Android is set to finally deliver on it's promise of unifying the software across a broad spectrum of handsets. There wont be any single iPhone killer, just as no single PC was ever a Mac killer. However, I see nothing that can stop Android from becoming the world's dominant smart phone OS.

The Motorola Droid isn't quite as exciting of a device as the Sony Xperia X10. I suspect we'll keep seeing Android based "iPhone killers" plunk away until Adroid wins the race.