Even former pros at this, like RIM/Blackberry, HP/Palm, and others are in the ditch. Sony-Ericsson, both of them bleeding heavily. Dumb phones are going the way of the landline, and in the land of less developed areas, growth will be huge-- and those will huge portfolios of patents are already parachuting in.
Microsoft wanted to be like Apple, and control its supply chain, which is barely do-able because they don't have the militarism of Apple when it comes to discipline. They might get a few points but it'll be a battle against Huawei, HTC, LG, Samsung, and the supply chains of Softbank, etc, that Microsoft will have to pull together.
It's not like how Google bought then divested of Motorola. Microsoft's been making billions from Android in pre-court settlements over patent issues. It was a bastard way of soaking Google's OEMs, and it worked.