Lots of people think they're good, but they're not. You'd be shocked (or not) at how many people fail the fizzbuzz coding exercise.
My general interview process is a brief verbal over their resume and some light tech questions, then you get a laptop with a dev environment and help files. You write a few coding exercises, stuff that would take a "good" coder probably 5-10 minutes.
My most recent hire was fresh out of college, he nailed it. I've had dozens of people claiming 5+ years experience that can't even finish it.
In any career you're going to be a lot like high school: You have your top 10%, your 10-25% that can bumble along, and then the other 75% who you wouldn't trust anything of value to.