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Comment Re:Rich stock analysts (Score 2) 335

You're right. Let me rephrase that. I've never met a rich stock analyst who made his money by doing exactly what he told everyone else to do.

I've only ever found 1 who seems to do that. This guy. One of his rules is that he discloses what he is currently investing in. He also revisits his predictions later, identifies how he was wrong , and offers some commentary, as in the last table of this article.

I have not actually subscribed to his services, but have read his (Free!) newsletters for many years.

Comment Re:Major changes in many countries (Score 5, Insightful) 333

There has been practically zero progress on handling the demand side. Doing so would require a radical rethink of how Western countries deal with drugs and drug addiction. This is not likely to happen in the next 20 years at least, and it is stupid to condemn other countries to 20 more years of violence by keeping our focus on limiting supply.

In Canada (at least in Sydney, Nova Scotia), addicts get their fix right at the hospital. For free.

It seems stupid at first, but it is extremely effective in reducing all kinds of crime related to drugs and addiction. Nobody there is breaking into houses or summer cabins looking for painkillers or goods to pawn. Nobody is stealing car stereos and pawning them to finance their habit. The number of people mixing dangerous chemicals in their house or garage is reduced. Why bother with all that when you just go to the hospital and get your legal high for free? Product originating from Taliban-controlled areas can't compete with free.

If Marijuana is more your style, they have medical marijuana laws and lax enforcement of recreational use. The end result is that local people grow it in their basements, cutting out any foreign supplier or middlemen. Marijuana isn't free, but I have yet to hear of any case where someone broke the law in order to get money to buy weed.

Comment Re:Sudafed (Score 2, Interesting) 333

We had this "better world" 130ish years ago. It was not better, addicts were becoming a huge problem for the society - the actual reason drugs became illegal. And yes, there still was a war in Afghanistan.

Yes, but 130 years ago we were still in an "all hands on deck" global economy. We now have the ability to produce all the things that the world needs or wants with far less than 100% of the population. The global economy no longer needs a significant portion of the population to participate in the economy. How do you solve that? Having a class of people who do nothing but drugs all day long may actually be somewhat helpful in solving the problem of what to do with all the people that society doesn't need.

Comment Re:You're dying off (Score 5, Insightful) 287

While those Gizmos may be cool and fun, they are no longer your major concern. Now this isn't all that bad, you are more mature and comfortable with yourself, things don't bother you so much, but you also need such distractions as well.

I thought like that for a long time, then one day I realized that I had optimized "fun" almost entirely out of my life. I am a lot happier now that I make sure to budget for "fun" things. Going through life without frivolous, but fun things was negatively affecting my mental condition. The joy of saving a dollar can only take you so far.

Comment Re:Oh please (Score 1) 287

Hardly anyone over the age of 25 cares about the eye candy touchscreen and gadgets in the car. They either car about space for kids and/or general crap, fuel economy, performance or looks or a combination of the above. Everything else can be done on a smartphone.

Well, I'm 30 and I drive a lot of rental cars. There is a big difference between an entertainment system done right, and one which has an idiotic interface. I love the Remote touch (a trackball/mouse-like interface) in my Lexus, even though I hate the rest of the entertainment system. It's conveniently located right where my hand would be comfortably resting anyway.

On the other hand, in many Ford models, if I set up the seat to be perfectly comfortable for my legs, then all the controls are about 3" farther away than I can reach without leaning forward. I'm 5'10" tall and don't have stubby arms so that's just poor design.

100,000 miles in a car at 45MPH is equivalent to over a year's worth of 40-hour weeks. I don't know about you, but I am interested in having the most positive experience in my car that I can reasonably afford, because during the lifetime of a car a great deal of time is spent in it. So I pay attention to everything that adds or detracts from a positive experience.

Comment Re:Lobbying Against PTC (Score 1) 393

Replying as anonymous for business reasons...

I worked on the PTC a few years ago with Lockheed Martin and Norfolk Southern. The LM folks were very committed to the program, but NS kept reducing funding. I wont make you read between the lines here, the program was a absolute disaster.

Technologically the solution evolved GPS/Radio units in every train and maintenance vehicle that reported back to a bunker, data center, the trains approximate location, direction, and speed. However because of accuracy issues it was really hard to tell EXACTLY which track a train was on, especially in high density rail yards. So train GPS was supplemented by track circuits which in theory tell you if a train is on a section of track. Which is good in theory, but it can't tell you which train, nor distinguish between maintenance vehicles and trains, nor can it tell you how fast or long a train is.

Knowing how long a train is became important for guaranteeing safe spacing between vehicles, as well as knowing safe times to switch track selectors.

And don't get me started on the software, if anything were ever written by a room full of monkeys it was the PTC software. I recall one function in particular that controlled logic for determining which track a train was likely to be on; when printing out was over 30 foot long. To give you a since of how convoluted that code was, that single function had a McCabe complexity of over 1.5 million.

Now I don't care how brilliant you THINK you are as a programmer, but thinking that you could understand that function only proved to me you were an idiot. 1.5 million possible paths through that one function (yes I know that we didn't account for similar condition statements that artificially inflate that number). That one function is absolutely guaranteed to kill your program, and we stressed that until we were released from the program. Just by odds alone, you are likely to add 5-10 defects while trying to fix a bug in it. And for two solid years that is exactly what happened, the defect count literally oscillated like a sin-wave function.

I'm not telling you this as a slight at the programmers, nor the management. I'm telling you this because a project like PTC is HARD, its like the traveling salesman problem but with 50 salesman who can't be at the same place at the same time, but can pass each-other as needed, are likely going in opposite directions, and you have to recompute the whole mess every 30 seconds and resolve conflicts when a previous solution made the train "jump". Let me tell you there is nothing worse than watching a train make it's way through a switch yard then suddenly jump 10 lanes halfway through on the display.

I too was once involved in a Lockheed software project for a (thankfully) brief time. I came away with the impression that Lockheed has a very strong aversion to anything that wasn't developed there. Using Off-the-shelf hardware or software just isn't their thing, and making convoluted code was very common. Its how they run up the man-hour bill and keep support contracts. I would even go as far as to say that writing crappy code and using custom hardware is part of their business model.

Comment Re:Affirmative Action (Score 1) 529

Sorry bub. There's no such thing as "equal footing".

It's a nice concept. But that's all it is.

What you're asking for isn't EQUAL treatment. It's SPECIAL treatment.

This is victim mentality and places you at greater disadvantage than the actual oppression did to your ancestors.

And your mindset would have us eternally offering "reparations" because there's no way you can ever be "equal" in your own mindset.

Nowadays, how much of the African American community's problems are from remnants of oppression and how much is of their own making?

The fact is, the deck is stacked against black men from birth. Would you mind being born black in the USA? I wouldn't wish that on anybody. All the skill and bootstraplifting in the world can't make up for the inequalities that some minorities face from K-12. The problem is that we are not trying very hard to equal the K-12 system, we are trying to fix things at the college level with special treatment. At that point, we are stacking the deck against good students to try to make up for not doing so at the elementary school level.

Comment Re:Lets all stop pretending (Score 3, Insightful) 613

People tend to overlook that in attacking this, one is also saying that women simply do not have as much merit and ability as men. And then people are surprised when they are called sexist for it.. it shows just how deeply ingrained the idea of female inferiority is in their minds... that the natural order, which just happens to disproportionately benefit them, is simply the way nature intended and any attempt to question that is somehow hurting them.

Not necessarily. My personal opinion is that the skills and thought processes needed in some disciplines simply might not be interesting to people who have more estrogen than testosterone in their blood.

It is curious that this kind of movement always seems to be only interested in obtaining safe, high-paying, white-collar jobs for women. If there is any hint that a job might be Difficult, Dangerous, or Dirty, there is no real push to put women in those roles, even when the pay is high. I have never met a single female welder, for example. A good welder is patient, deliberate, and if the directions don't line up with the situation, they need to ask for further directions. If you wanted to pick a gender most suited for that, would you pick a man? I wouldn't. Yet because it is (very mildly) dangerous, often dirty, and sometimes difficult, most women don't seem to be interested.

Comment Re:High Center of Gravity (Score 1) 160

If you look at this amtrak passenger coach, its height seems to be above 20 feet. When something this tall, riding on narrow rails, takes a high speed turn, it's bound to overturn and derail due to high center of gravity. Why don't they make much shorter coaches to reduce the CoG? That might eliminate most of these crashes.

That's a special parlour car, which seems to be extra high compared to most passenger coaches in the USA. The standard is the Amfleet I and Amfleet II passenger cars, which are all 12ft, 8 inches tall with a CG of 60.4 inches.

Comment Re:High Center of Gravity (Score 1) 160

I would be surprised if the center of gravity is much more than 6 feet off the ground.

It's probably higher than that since the coach rides high over the chassis. Most cars are way below 6 feet in height and SUVs, which are around 6 feet in height, usually have a high rollover risk, again mainly due to their high CoG compared to regular cars even though they are bottom-heavy, just like train coaches.

Well, prepare to be surprised then. According to this diagram of an Amfleet I car, the CG is at 60.4 inches or a hair more than 5 feet. The wheels and bogies of a train are very heavy. Amfleet II cars are a little different, but not in ways that would significantly affect the CG.

Comment Re:Rail Personnel (Score 1) 160

This was the Amtrak line between DC and NYC. There's no diesel fumes on that train, because it uses an electric locomotive.

It may have been a diesel electric unit. Many routes, such as the Northeast Regional travel from DC to NYC. But they also continue on to other places, like Richmond, VA. I can assure you that the trains continuing on to Richmond are diesel-electric since that line is not electrified. Often they will swap locomotives in DC, but not always.

Comment Re:satellites (Score 4, Insightful) 403

One should be very wary of the distinction between "run without refueling" and "run without regular maintenance". Even assuming that the reactor's fuel would last, the ancillary equipment associated with the reactor's operation (coolant pumps and such) and electricity generation (steam turbines) certainly wouldn't be expected to operate unattended and unmaintained for months, let alone years.

That said, the fifty-year planned lifespan of the Nimitz-class includes, if I'm not mistaken, a mid-life refuelling and complex overhaul (RCOH). To be fair, the reactor's fuel would likely last longer than the planned 20-25 years if the carrier weren't actively steaming--but I wouldn't trust the other parts to last anywhere near so long.

As a steam turbine engineer, I am fairly confident that, given a well maintained system to start with, the first failure would probably be in a stuck steam control valve. Over time, oxides build up on the valve stem, which would cause it to become stuck at some point. This would probably take 3-6 years. When that happened, the instrumentation control loop (need more steam, open valve, need less steam, close valve) would have a hiccup since it would ask for more or less demand and the valve wouldn't move. Valves stuck-open have historically caused many turbine overspeeds and resulting disasters.

Depending on exactly how the system was set up, the stuck steam valve should trigger the control system to automatically close a different valve, shutting down the plant. However, it is possible that it would result in a large kaboom as the turbine entered overspeed and the turbine blades liberated.

As for the last electrical device operating, my money would be on a solar powered yard light. The quality of those devices is generally terrible but the law of averages suggests some of them have to be on the long tail of a MTBF curve.

Comment Re:*Badly (Score 1) 223

Personally, I have a Windows tablet and I love it. The only real problem is the small number of apps. If they could make iOS and Android apps run on it, then all the better.

Why do you think a small number of apps is a problem? I have a Lenovo Yoga Tablet 2 with Windows 8, and it can run any Windows software ever written that it meets the minimum requirements for. I have never once thought "boy I wish I had an app that did X". In fact, I wish some of the apps that I do have (Skype, for one) were not apps at all but normal Windows programs.

Comment Re:Why? (Score 1) 223

they're probably talking about wanting to run Android/iOS apps on Windows 10 phones.

Are you sure about that? I have only seen Windows phones, and not owned one but as an owner of a Windows 8 tablet, the desktop OS looks a lot like a portable device and vice versa. In fact, it seems they have been planning convergence for some time. Windows 10 might be the OS where the differences between mobile and desktop are only in the relevent aspects of the UI.

Comment Re:Tablets and technology march on (Score 1) 123

Ouya has loads of competition now from ARM "sticks" and media adapters like the Fire, Roku or Cu Box. And each year brings more capable hardware while Ouja stays the same. The new raspberry pi 2 or Amazon Fire are arguably superior in all ways. Certainly both those alternatives make excellent XBMC/Kodi boxes.

And competition has also come from tablets in terms of casual gaming. Tablets benefit from huge economies of scale and large online market ecosystems. Ouja was always going to be a niche market appealing to techies and gamers.

I have a Fire TV (the fat one, not the stick) with Kodi on it, and it is not that "excellent". If you don't exit Kodi properly (by just pushing the "home" button on the remote, for example), then Amazon videos won't play. Various other minor, but irritating bugs make me wonder if I should have just gotten a cheap Chinese android stick or android box instead. I got a Maige TV HD3 recently, which is OUTSTANDING albeit not perfectly legal, so I will probably be dumping Kodi and all my home server content in the near future anyway. Curating my own content just takes up too much of my time, at a time when the amount of free time I have is shrinking.

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