The problem is for every expert there is an equal and opposite expert. In this case there are companies (not to mention the economy as a whole) that would lose enormous amounts of money if we start to crack down on carbon emissions. There are also people who are set up to profit both politically and financially from "proving" the science behind climate change.
The other problem is that the public isn't being asked to believe in this stuff because believing in it will magically fix the problem, the public is being asked to believe in it because the government is asking for our money. They are asking for us to pay higher prices for EVERYTHING because everything we do requires energy. The cheapest way to get energy right now is to burn fossil fuels. On the other hand if New York is indeed going to be buried in water in 50 years then it's going to be cheaper and better all around to do something about it now while we still can. It is very important to get this right and saying "trust me I'm an expert" just isn't good enough.
The proposed solution to this problem is of course to declare that there is a consensus among all scientists who matter. But of course as a lay person the process of deciding who gets to decide which scientists matter and which one's don't is no easier than deciding which experts are correct in the first place.
Establishing the truth about anything is simply a difficult problem and pretending that because someone is an "expert" that they can't be wrong is just stupid. Certain things are just very complicated. Fields that study complex systems evolve more rapidly and have less stable elements than those that study simpler more easily observable phenomena. For instance, if you told me that you were an expert on Newtonian physics, and you told me that you could launch a canon ball and tell me where it was going to land I would believe you. If you were an expert in quantum physics and you told me you knew exactly how, given the proper equipment, to produce a Higgs Boson, I would assume that you understood what the theories said but that in your excitement you might be a little overly confident since no one has ever done such a thing and the theories could be wrong. If you were an expert in psychology and you told me you could tell me what I was going to eat for breakfast in the morning I would call you a quack.
If you were a doctor telling me that the surgery you were recommending had an 98% chance of killing me I would get a second opinion. Even if I thought you were the best most "expert" doctor in the world and you told me that the alternative to the surgery was certain death, I would get a second opinion. And probably a 3rd, and a 4th and a 5th opinion as well. Why? Because the cost of getting the opinions of 4 doctors is way, way more acceptable than the possibility of dying on the operating table and there is some chance that my doctor made a mistake.
The impression that I get after looking into the situation with these leaked emails, and please correct me if I'm wrong because I would very much like to wrong, but the impression that I get is that no one, outside of the research teams that developed these models has ever seen this code or been able to duplicate it themselves. I don't know what happens in the peer review process but it appears that actually looking at the code and validating that it works properly is not part of it. And even if it is, why not let other scientists look at it? Why not let other "experts" look at it? I feel like you are telling me that once the first doctor has done a diagnosis that he has the right to hide all of the data related to it, not let anyone, except a self-chosen peer, look at it, and that I should believe that anyone who comes up with a different diagnosis could only be wrong and I shouldn't listen to anything they say.
You say:
Research gets published in journals for everyone to see, etc. It's not like we're keeping it a big secret
But the impression people are getting from this incident is that only part of the research gets published and that some parts are hidden and that scientists are even committing illegal acts such as deleting information that could be requested as part of a Freedom of Information Act in order to keep things hidden. When I read accounts of other climate scientists trying to duplicate the results and being unable to and then requesting information on how it was done in the first place and that request for information being denied what am I supposed to think? That the man working in secret is right because the UN published his results and that the man who appears to be working out in the open is a villain? When I read that after their models are revealed they produce the same charts regardless of whether they are fed real data or noise am I just supposed to assume that they were correct because the were created by experts?
Your right, as a lay person it is hard to understand the arguments of experts. But in a situation where determining who is correct is vital to our future prosperity there is a larger burden than just doing good science. In situations where the only thing that matters is the opinions of other scientists I would say that you are right to not waste your time arguing with idiots. But when science influences policy there is an additional responsibility to make a convincing case that those idiots can understand. Is it a lot more work. Yes. Am I asking you personally to sit down and tutor every one of them? Obviously not. If you go to http://copenhagendiagnosis.org/ you will see the following:
The report has been purposefully written with a target readership of policy-makers, stakeholders, the media and the broader public.
This is because these people are not idiots. They know that they are asking for major changes to be made with regard to how our economy functions and that the burden for those changes will be paid for by "the broader public". Hence they are willing to engage with said public. And that report in fact, I believe does a very good job of that. More is required however. The report makes sense. But if the codes and raw data sets used to come to these conclusions are secret and cannot be duplicated by others how am I to have confidence in them? If skeptics, even lay skeptics, raise concerns they should be addressed and communicated to the public in as clear a manner as possible. The burden of proof is in fact extraordinarily high. The following must be determined with a very high degree of certainty before we can be confident that we are making the right policy choices:
1. The earth is getting hotter
2. The warming is a long term trend
3. The warming is caused by humans
4. The warming is caused by human produced CO2
5. How much warming is going to occur?
6. What is the effect of the warming?
7. What is the best way to deal with the effects of the warming?
8. What is the best way to stop the warming?
The answer to all of these questions involves the analysis of very, very complex systems. If you are trying to say that a doctorate level degree equals expert equals trust everything they say without question, then you are in fact the idiot. My experience with medical doctors is that they are wrong more times than they are right when it comes to anything that falls outside of the normal situations that they regularly run into. Do I assume that there is a conspiracy amongst doctors to harm my body. No, that would be just as stupid. They are wrong because the human body is very complicated and despite the fact that we have been studying it for a long time there is still much that we don't understand. To assume that someone with a Ph.D in a much younger science such as climate science, studying a much more complicated system, the earth, of which we only have one specimen rather than billions, is automatically right to the degree that we are willing to institute programs that cost billions of dollars, is just crazy talk. I'm not saying that the science is not good only that much skepticism should be applied. Essentially:
1. The burden of proof is high. Doing a couple of peer reviews per study is not enough.
2. The entire process should all be done out in the open where all "experts" and consequently lay people have equal access to all data and code so that every expert can make his/her case.
If I go to you and demand your time to explain to me your job because I am curious than, yeah, I am the arrogant one. But if you take the results of your work and come to me and demand that I change my lifestyle and spend my money in a certain way and that I shouldn't question you or ask for you to explain yourself or show other scientists how you arrived at your conclusions then your arrogance is just stupefying.