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Comment Re:Ah....and please tell me what your definition o (Score 1) 188

A projection is.

In my definition, it is "if I have x, y, z, and it continues on path q, I can project that it will continue to do so with a given accuracy". But as soon as I open my big fat mouth and say that "q will be such", I've changed from a projection of a model to a prediction. And when ALL of those predictions are wrong and revised.

That's where I think you're mistaken; they don't say, "q will be such", they state something more like, "if q continues to be such, we expect ___ with an X% level of confidence" (ya know, like scientists tend to do).

I found this IPCC glossary:

Climate prediction

A climate prediction or climate forecast is the result of an attempt to produce a most likely description or estimate of the actual evolution of the climate in the future, e.g. at seasonal, interannual or long-term time scales. See also: Climate projection and Climate (change) scenario.

 

vs

Climate projection

A projection of the response of the climate system to emission or concentration scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios, often based upon simulations by climate models. Climate projections are distinguished from climate predictions in order to emphasise that climate projections depend upon the emission/concentration/ radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions, concerning, e.g., future socio-economic and technological developments, that may or may not be realised, and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty.

Finally, the IPCC projections are criticized for being, if anything, too conservative in their projections. Time and time again they've said X in Y years and in Y - Z years X is seen to be having an effect. And when something stupid does come out (Himalayan glaciers melting in 30 years), they correct it. Ya know, like scientists do.

Also, don't confuse media headlines with IPCC projections, just like you can't expect to see realistic scenes of IT in movies.

And please, check out the link a few posts above that points to the Ars Technica story where the comp sci prof has a look at the models - he was impressed - they're pretty good. Or, "all models are wrong, some are useful" and climate models are useful.

Comment Re:Two standard deviations more (Score 1) 188

If climate models were accurate, their predictions would be accurate. All of the models have failed on their predictions. This means, they are inaccurate and are not accurately reflecting the real world model.

They don't make predictions, they make projections; if you can't get that right, you're worse than the climate models.

Similar to confusing weather with climate.

Newtonian physics doesn't make accurate predictions (at relativistic speeds, for example), but it's still accurate (enough) for models. Or was Isaac Newton a "physicist" instead of a physicist because he didn't cover all cases?

Comment Re:Two standard deviations more (Score 2) 188

But I can't prove anthropogenic climate change with anything but a computer model... and I've made too many computer models in my day for that to be very convincing.

Have you seen climate models, or do you just deny the ones that you don't like due to your standard of "truthiness"?

Ars Technica covers climate models nicely: (see page 2)

Steve Easterbrook, a professor of computer science at the University of Toronto, has been studying climate models for several years. “I'd done a lot of research in the past studying the development of commercial and open source software systems, including four years with NASA studying the verification and validation processes used on their spacecraft flight control software,” he told Ars.

When Easterbrook started looking into the processes followed by climate modeling groups, he was surprised by what he found. “I expected to see a messy process, dominated by quick fixes and muddling through, as that's the typical practice in much small-scale scientific software. What I found instead was a community that takes very seriously the importance of rigorous testing, and which is already using most of the tools a modern software development company would use (version control, automated testing, bug tracking systems, a planned release cycle, etc.).”

“I was blown away by the testing process that every proposed change to the model has to go through,” Easterbrook wrote. “Basically, each change is set up like a scientific experiment, with a hypothesis describing the expected improvement in the simulation results. The old and new versions of the code are then treated as the two experimental conditions. They are run on the same simulations, and the results are compared in detail to see if the hypothesis was correct. Only after convincing each other that the change really does offer an improvement is it accepted into the model baseline.”

Comment Re:And as usual... (Score 1) 62

And as usual no individuals will be held personally accountable for this. Perhaps a general censure will occur, or a mocking speech stating that they didn't do anything wrong thinly veiled as an apology.

Canadians often mock America but it seems that you guys have achieved banana republic status too.

Sorry, that's petro-state.

Too cold for bananas up here.

Comment Re:What happens when it can't keep up? (Score 2) 237

Solution: Don't drive a McClaren in those conditions. You'll just have to take the Bentley, or the Rolls Royce.

You don't drive a Bentley or a Rolls Royce... Your chauffeur drives the Bentley or the Roller. So it doesn't matter how the windscreen is kept clean as you will be riding in back, far away from such irrelevancies.

As it should be.

The windscreen is kept clean by the butler strapped to the bonnet / hood and operating a squeegee.

Of course.

Comment Re:Say what ?! (Score 1) 280

... if, say, the military or state department actually follows the NSA's suggestions, there's a decent chance that those suggestions are pretty close to as good as it gets ...

Are you saying that NSA hasn't yet created enough havoc, that you wish the State Department and the Military to join NSA in making even more violations to our Constitutions ??

When he said suggestions (not examples), I think he meant something like the NSA's Information Assurance recommendations.

Check it out, it's quite informative (+5 Informative).

Comment Re: They have the money to do this (Score 1) 250

Posting AC because I modded you up. I'm just turning 49. My earliest memory is being woken by my dad to watch Neil Armstong descend that ladder on out tiny B/W TV. That memory shaped my life.

It's with sadness that I don't recall that specific event, though the parents assure me that I was watching.

I do recall other, related events though, just not the big one.

Also, posting AC will remove your given mod points, unless perhaps you logged out altogether.

Easy to test: check score on some post, then give it a unique moderation. Check the score to ensure it was recorded. Post a reply as AC. Check score again: your mod will be gone.

Comment Re:Ups and Downs (Score 1) 324

The open nature is also being drastically eroded by moving more and more stuff into the Google Play Services. So while the platform is still technically open source, all the interesting things are moved into a separate, closed, layer.

Slowly but surely, android is closing up.

Perhaps, but I thought that moving things into Google Play was mostly in response to the "fragmentation" issue, and / or because manufacturers and carriers were unwilling to issue updates for Android. Perhaps compensating for allowing too much freedom for carriers to add crapware, sell handsets, then neglect the customers.

The separation of many features into Google Play allows them to be updated without the participation of the aforementioned parties - is this not the case?

Having said that, I try to avoid Google services where possible - I don't like any one entity knowing too much about me.

Comment Mis-read the title (Score 2, Funny) 207

I read it as "Ford Self-Driving R&D Car Smells Small Animal From Paper Bag At 200 Ft." and my first thought was, "What the hell kind of test is that?!?"

Split second later, "Waaiit a second, that can't be right."

But hey, my truck smells like a small animal in a paper bag - from 2 years ago.

*goes back to sleep*

Comment Re:Court order (Score 1) 228

Was this the guy who was then billed by the hospital for all of these tests?

Yes.

Just too much outrageousness to easily summarize in one (or two) posts.

Popehat does the usual excellent job, plus has links to other sources for anyone that wants a different take on it. Popehat's coverage is rather in-depth from the legal perspective (Ken was a former LA DA and now defence attorney with 1st amendment focus if I recall correctly).

Comment Re:Court order (Score 1) 228

Ah, good question.

He pulled out of a WalMart in New Mexico without coming to a complete stop.

Then he looked nervous when pulled over. Allegedly appeared to be "clenching buttocks" when asked to step out of car.

Then, the officer got on the radio and heard from a colleague that the suspect had some previous drug related incident. Which the cop on the scene spun into "was caught with drugs up his butt".

The (uncertified) drug sniffing dog gave the signal, allegedly, on the guy's car seat.

Court gave search warrant for suspect's butt based on police officer's claim (unverified) of previously having hidden drugs up his butt.

2nd police officer's report makes no claim of previous incident being about drugs up butt.

The search was done in a different county (possibly outside jurisdiction of warrant) after hospital #1 refused to participate. Some of the search (colonoscopy at least) was performed after the valid time period of the warrant (rendering warrant invalid / expired?).

This is not an isolated incident.

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