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Comment Re:I wonder (Score 1) 776

On the blog, she states that the direct attributes from her in the Mail article were accurate. Here is one of her direct attributes:

"There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped,’ she said. ‘To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.’"

From that, I think it is pretty clear that she is indeed saying that the warming has stopped over the last 10 years. I read Dr. Curry's blog a lot and I'm pretty familiar with her point of view. This isn't the first time she has talked about the stalled warming. At this time, there is a real debate in the climate world concerning this stall. Is it significant (we need more time to know). If it is significant, is it solar? aerosols? ocean variability? Does it prove CO2 is not important? Does it prove the feedbacks are negative? Is there some hysteris effect that will result in a massive surge in warming? Finding the answer to such questions will lead to a better understanding of the poorly understood climate on this planet. That will happen faster if people stop trying to score debating points and start being real, skeptical scientists again. Because the alternative of unskeptical scientist is an oxymoron.

Comment Re:Not news (Score 1) 776

The term "mainstream side" is intended to be neutral. Other terms, such as alarmist or denier are inflammatory and detract from the debate. I am working at toning down such inflammatory rhetoric in my own writing. In science, one should not care if one is in the mainstream or not. Max Planck was advised by Kirchoff to stop worrying about minor discrepancies in thermodynamic quantities. Good thing he worried about the little details that the mainstream claimed to be unimportant.

Comment Re:Where to learn more (Score 1) 776

There is much emotion and strong politics involved in CC.

I'm not a scientist nor trained in climate science. and find it hard to gather information that is neither too science heavy/too dispersed nor too politicised/emotional.

For the unitiated like myself, can the community recommend a book that can give good primer on where we are on CC, with compelling evidence of AGW?

All suggestions welcome.

For the physics of radiant heat transfer (which is the fundemental basis of the greenhouse effect) there is an excellent blog:

http://scienceofdoom.com/

As for compelling evidence of A (with emphasis on the A) GW., there you will have to get help from others. I haven't found any. For compelling evidence of GW on the other hand, google Ice Age. A good book on geology will provide background on climate change over the last few billion years. If you learn some geology, you will learn that CO2 levels have previously been 10 times higher than today, though rarely much lower. You will learn that climate can change dramatically in a very short period of time. You will learn that our climate today is relatively cool compared to almost all time since the earth formed billions of years ago. You will then scratch your head and ask what all the excitement is about. Don't ask someone though. They will call you a skin headed denier of a flat earth creationist.

Comment Re:Muller is the biggest skeptic the world. (Score 1) 776

Umm. McIntyre and McKitrick? Eschenbach? Spencer? Pielke Sr.? All have at least one (Pielke a whole slew) of papers published in peer reviewed literature. There are quite a huge number of others equally or more skeptical. And how is the failure to calibrate a "slight potential source of error". When I do science (engineering actually, which is harder as people sue you if you are wrong), if one of my instruments fails to calibrate, you don't use it as a measurement device. And "hide the decline" was entirely about the failure to calibrate tree rings as a proxy, hence making all of the hockey stick graphs meaningless as measures of temperature. Yes. The results are worthless because the instruments failed to calibrate. Also, Dr. Mullar has stated, in his paper, that there has been no warming in the last ten years. The WSJ, Huffpost, etc., put words in his mouth with about as much integrity as the Daily Mail putting words in Dr. Curry's mouth.

Comment Re:where is the actual disagreement? (Score 1) 776

Time frame is critical in these discussions. The area of greatest debate is the medieval warm period(MWP). Up until Mann produced his hockey stick graph, it was accepted that temperatures in the MWP were warmer than today. As such, if this were true, then yes indeed, it hasn't warmed. After the hockey stick, this became an area of debate. McIntyre and McKitrick showed that the statistics of Mann were flawed. Mann countered and there is still debate. The "Hide The Decline" is a separate area of debate. If Mann would be as open as the BEST team, there would be considerably less debate. Much of Mann's reconstruction relies on tree rings. The "temperature record" as recorded by tree rings drops off dramatically after about 1960. The instrument record shows that temperatures were flat, then increasing. This trend was removed from plots of the hockey stick. This is the "decline" that was "hidden". Given that Mann is asserting that tree rings are good thermometers, it is valid to question this assertion when they fail calibration during the time when our ability to accurately compare temperature to tree growth has been best. Recent temperatures, from the end of the little ice age have been increasing. The BEST data clearly shows that temperatures decreased from 1945 to 1975, began rising again then and have been flat since 2000. Temperatures have been rising, they have been falling, they have been flat. So, if you cherry pick, you can support both sides. And both sides are cherry picking. One side tends to be a little nastier in their assertions though. What with the comparison to skin head holocaust deniers, creationists and flat earthers. Given the vitriol of the mainstream, I started to wonder what they had to hide. So I started to look. That is how I became a skeptic.

Comment Re:Not news (Score 1) 776

Denialists rely upon a narrative. After all, they are faced with an insurmountable amount of repeated observations stretching back 100 years - the entirety of human reasoning and science is against them. The only way for Denialism to seem reasonable is to formulate a narrative, a myth based on an evil conspiracy of scientists colluding to hide the actual truth. Its all a conspiracy! That explains why the science is all in agreement!

Muller has destroyed that narrative. By formulating a test outside of the conspiracy in the narrative, he has demonstrated that the narrative is myth. The CRU was right. GISS was right. The narrative that they colluded to fake the data is debunked.

Not sure where this "conspiracy" meme is coming from. Possibly the Laframboise book. Anyway, one doesn't need a conspiracy. Only a whole lot of money to be made. Also, I'm a "denialist" (nice Godwin by the way). Here is what I know to be true.
1: Global Warming is real
2: The greenhouse effect is real
3: CO2 is the second largest contributor to the greenhouse effect
4: While the effect of water is greater, the effect of CO2 will be cumulative, hence we can (mostly) ignore the effect of water.
What pray tell are you suggesting I'm denying?

Comment Re:Different thing (Score 5, Informative) 776

Actually, 390 ppm in the entire atmosphere is the same as a 50% CO2 atmosphere over 5 meters. So, yes, from a radiative heat transfer point of view it is a lot. So much that increases now have a marginal effect. Ironically, if there really were "very little" CO2, then an increase would matter. It is precisely because there is so much in the atmosphere that it doesn't matter much how much more we add, up to about 2,000 to 3,000 ppm where it might begin to impact on respiration. (Yes, I am an expert in radiant heat transfer).

Comment Re:I wonder (Score 1) 776

The nice thing about the BEST data is you can see it all, see the methods used and if you want, plot your own. If you do this, you will see that the data has been flat for 10 years. Further, the other data sets (CRU. GISS) have also all been flat for 10 years. It has gotten to the point where Dr. Kevin Trenberth is telling people that all that energy that should have hit the earth, but didn't actually warm anything, is in the very deepest oceans. Places where (conveniently) we don't have any historic records. The heat magically made it's way there without warming any of the water in between.

Realclimate is not the only source of authoritative climate science on the web. Read Dr. Curry, the Dr's Pielke for some balance. If you have the courage of you convictions, read some of Roy Spencer or Freeman Dyson. That would be a good start. You will see that there are many people with many doctorates in physics, atmospheric physics, statistics, engineering and other sciences who a pretty certain that there really isn't much to worry about here. And if you are going to say "we should act now, what harm could there be" ask the Australians who were flooded because the climate alarmists told the government not to draw down reservoirs that should have been empty when the rains came. Ask Heathrow airport who have finally decided to upgrade their snow removal fleet, after realizing that there was actually still going to be snow in England. In the next 5 years or so, ask the people in the Mediterranean when the rains return and they have set up systems to live with drought, but forgotten about shedding water. Of course, when those rains return and make a lie of the assertion that the droughts were a sign of global warming, the rains too will be claimed to be "consistent with global warming" or climate change or regional climate disruption, or whatever it is called this week.

Comment Re:Not news (Score 3, Insightful) 776

Not to mention that Mullar was never even close to a skeptic and his co-author (Dr. J. Curry, a prominent climate researcher who would hardly be called a skeptic either) is disputing his comments about what the data shows. The great thing about the BEST project is all of the data and methods are available. Unlike Hadley CRU who have lost their original data, and still refuse to provide the various Ural data sets.Or GISS that won't provide the method(s??) used to 'normalize' their data. With the BEST project, we can see things like this comparison of what Mullar released to the press and what the data actually shows. Note that the two graphs have different time scales on the x axis, which is not quite cricket, but the point is valid.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2055191/Scientists-said-climate-change-sceptics-proved-wrong-accused-hiding-truth-colleague.html

No, it is more likely that Mullar, who has always been on the mainstream side, knew his data set would show 10 years of no warming while CO2 increased. This would be fuel to the fire of climate skeptics, so he pre-empted with a press release stating that the data shows one thing when it actually shows the exact opposite.

Given the number of true believers here (people I equate with the deniers on the skeptic side), I am wondering how long this post, all of which is factual and can be confirmed with relative ease, will be modded "troll". Seems to happen to all posts that are in any way skeptical.

Comment Re:We're not there yet... (Score 1) 535

Also, ocean level increase seems to have reversed itself. If this too continues, will the alarmists finally admit that maybe things are not worse than we thought? Personally, I believe that it IS worse than we think. We are on the cusp of the next ice age and instead of figuring out how to live in a much cooler world we are maniacally doing everything in our power to make it cooler. Of course the people who are advocating this are the same people who tell us the solution to the debt crisis is to borrow more money.

Comment Re:Read the literature already (Score 1) 535

The fact that human activity is the source of most of the CO2 increase has been documented. CO2 outputs can and have been measured, and there is no doubt that human activity is the cause of the increase. That *you* can doubt this shows that you are being influenced by the denialists. We are rapidly approaching the point where we will be unable to prevent global temperatures from rising higher than they have ever been during the existence of humans. Do you really think it likely that we will do *better* in an environment that we did not evolve to live in?

I see you didn't quote the parent. You are talking about increased CO2 being a result of human activity. The original poster was talking about human activity impacting climate. I would be someone you would call a denier. Here are things I'm sure of. Please point out what I'm denying.
1.Global Warming is real.
2.Humans have impacted climate, particularly by gaseous pollutants. Methane will have an impact on climate, CFC’s really do chew up the ozone layer. SO2 has cooled the world. (and probably accounts for the cooling from 1945 to 1975 and may account for the flat lining over the last 10 years)
3.The “greenhouse effect” or the increase in atmospheric temperature due to absorption of electromagnetic radiation, is real.
4.CO2 is the second largest contributor to the greenhouse effect.
5. Though water is the largest contributor to the greenhouse effect, the CO2 affect is cumulative to this, so it is important.

If you get your information from realclimate, or worse New Scientist, the fact that most deniers agree with all these points is probably news to you. But they do. So you can see why denier is not only a derogatory term, it is also wrong. Skeptics yes. Deniers? Not so much.

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