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Comment Re:What? (Score 1) 68

Think "anomalously long backscatter times"/"anamalous diffusion of backscatter" for energetic cosmic rays. You can refine the specificity for the location utilizing synthetic aperture techniques, but you end up with very thin stripes for each pass over the scanned region. I *did* say "long term observation"...

Note that the Fukushima detectors are a pretty long ways away from the reactor itself, as well as the containment vessel, compared to straight tomographic techniques used to examine cargo containers, say in Oakland.

NB: These days, it's pretty obsolete as a technique, and we use neutrino tomography instead, but there are enough "dark spots" that it's not possible to cover everywhere with the technique. Interestingly, Vernor Vinge "outed" the neutrino tomography technique in his novel "The Peace War", although his details are a bit hand-wavy and wrong.

Generally we don't have to worry about being shot down when we fly a constellation of high altitude aircraft over North Korea without their permissions in order to create a synthetic aperture large enough to be meaningful, so it's OK for filling in the dark spots there. You wouldn't want to run the same flights over Russia, even at 90,000 feet these days.

PS: In case you missed it, there was a story the other day bemoaning the lack of noble gas detectors to detect by-products of fission plant operation, but they also wanted some better generalized climatological models (read: give us lots of money for supercomputer hardware to play with) in order to determine the origin, should noble gasses be detected with their new detectors.

Comment Re:Daycare measles herd immunity is impossible (Score 1) 580

#1 Can't give MMR below 12 months in age. Period. Exception: infants traveling internationally warrant the risk.

Most day cares don't take infants, and when they do, they usually don't take anyone else. The day cares I went to didn't want you until you were potty trained.

This article is specifically about Silicon Valley Day Care.

Which I think is probably code to "The day care next door to Marisa Mayer's office", but even if it's not, in the companies I've worked in in SV, they were a substitute for a babysitter to get mothers and fathers back to work as quickly as possible following a birth, without paying them enough to be able to afford a nanny. They took kids from a few weeks old up to age 4.

Comment Re:Microsoft has gotten themselves in trouble. (Score 1) 271

Totally ignoring the fact that for all middleware-based vertical market software (which is, in effect, "all of it", mostly written in dialects of VB to glue a bunch of Microsoft and third party DLLs together) it's an added "rewrite everything from scratch" overhead, it ignores buying cycle.

But I have stuff like that running on my Windows 7 amd64 system on a regular basis. WTF are you on about?

You can have stuff *like that*, but it's not going to be the same stuff, it's going to be *new stuff* written in VB.Net or C#.Net.

This would be fine, if anyone had liked some of the intermediate Windows releases, and gone forward on those platforms, instead of running more XP systems because they freaking *HATED* "ME", "Vista", which is why they never achieved sufficient market share to displace XP. This should have been obvious when everyone avoided "200" and instead went for XP when it came out.

Instead, the vertical market code is still living on the old VB platform on XP.

While VB6.0 apps *can* run on Server 2008, Windows 7, and Windows 8 platforms, most *don't*.

First of all, the Server 2008 platform is irrelevant for vertical market apps, since they run client side, not server-side.

Second, you can't use Office 2000 as an installed application on the new platforms, you have to use Office 2011 and 2013, and the DLL components that make up the components you'd use in the vertical market app are sufficiently different from one another that you'd have to pic running one or the other anyway. Which would be fine, except Office 2013 requires Windows 7 or above to install. So basically, if I want new Office, I have to tke new Windows, and vice versa.

This means that you have to do a re-buy, or you have to have two versions of your vertical market application.

To add insult to injury, it's practically impossible to force the newer versions of Office to use the older file formats at the DLL level, without reselecting the settings every time you save a document. So if your vertical market app has to communicate data between an older and a newer workstation instance, even if you invest in rewriting you vertical market app from scratch to move off VB 6.0, it's most non-interoperable without a bunch of "Can you re-save that document in the old office format so I can use it? Thanks.".

At a minimum, if I'm a small business with 20 employees, and I want to add 3 more, I am pretty much screwed, unless I've done one of two things:

(1) Pre-bought a bunch of XP systems and stuck them in a closet in case I wanted to hire someone, or someone's computer dies

(2) Paid to move everyone forward onto at *least* Windows 7 and Office 2003, and paid to have my middleware rewritten.

Even so, there are a lot of third party DLL components that simple *are not available* as 64 bit versions. So I m either SOL, or paying to duplicate their functionality, as well, in order to get my dentists office / collections agency / non-profit call center / POS systems / whatever vertical market app, back online.

---

So like I've said: they've missed the boat for about 70% of their market, which simply can not afford to redo everything all at once.

They *REALLY* needed to deprecate the OS and the applications components - Office - and the applications platform - VB 6.0 - *separately* so that SMBs could do overlapping buy-forward, which is more in line with the fact that they are constrained in their instantaneous purchasing power by being in a cash flow business model, but relatively unconstrained in their over time purchasing power, for the same reason.

Frankly, they *could* have maintained component binary binary compatibility, while deploying a new office.

The actual order should have been:

(1) New windows with VB 6.0 and Office binary backward compatibility
(2) Deprecate XP and force people OS-forward with (relatively) little pain

(3) New Office with component binary backward compatibility, requiring new OS

(4) New VB.Net capable of running VB 6.0
(5) *GOOD* source translation tools that warned about coming incompatibilities. Include translation to C# instead of VB.Net for extra good will

(6) Deprecate VB 6.0 in favor of VB.Net / C#
(7) Deprecate old Office DLL APIs that were warned about in #5; force migration to new DLLs for new installs of Office used as components

This would have allowed layered buy-forward into the new ecosystem without crapping on anyone's business that they've been running on a vertical market since 1991.

Microsoft sold everyone a bill of goods with their component architecture, and then failed to carry through on component reuse going forward.

And I would say that that is about 70% of their installed base.

Comment Re: Bring it on, folks! (Score 4, Interesting) 215

Back before DVD drm was generally broken with DeCSS, I had my own mechanism for breaking DVDs It was cumbersome but it worked.

Me too. I electrically emulated a LVDS flat panel and reconstructed the high resolution image from the LVDS.

Works great for BluRay encryption, and for projectionist monitor screens in movie theaters, too, since the flat panels themselves are *after* the content decryption.

Comment We've been using muon detectors for over 40 years (Score 4, Interesting) 68

We've been using muon detectors for over 40 years to detect nuclear-related activities in various countries, including reactor installation, stockpiling, bomb-building, and so on. One of the reasons for the ability to move MX missiles around underground was so that long term muon detector observation by the Soviets could not pinpoint the location of the missiles.

Comment Microsoft has gotten themselves in trouble. (Score 1, Informative) 271

Personally I think that Microsoft has been doing quite well lately, but no matter what they do, people seem to find something wrong with it.

Microsoft has gotten themselves in trouble.

One of the big things they did wrong was kill binary compatibility for software running on XP at the same time they killed XP.

This effectively forces a re-buy of all your hardware, because any new hardware you buy can no longer run the old software.

Totally ignoring the fact that for all middleware-based vertical market software (which is, in effect, "all of it", mostly written in dialects of VB to glue a bunch of Microsoft and third party DLLs together) it's an added "rewrite everything from scratch" overhead, it ignores buying cycle.

Typical accounting for computer hardware is an accelerated depreciation schedule, which is a 3 year schedule. This effectively means that every year, you intend to replace 1/3 of your computer systems (without an accelerated depreciation, as allowed by the IRS, this turns into a 5 year schedule, which means 1/5th or 20% get replaced).

The changes in binary compatibility at the same time the OS changed means that you have to do a full re-buy to handle adding people, or simple because old systems need replaced.

While this is great for Microsoft (they get a 3X - or 5X - bump in the number of licenses the y get to sell for everything), and it's great for computer vendors (same bump, in order to sell hardware capable of running the new OS), and it's great for vertical market consulting developers ("hey, we get to do the same job we did ~10 years ago over again for more $$$, and it's an emergency, so we can charge usurious rates!") ... it's a pretty big hit.

Larger businesses can pretty much stomach this hit, because they have reserve.

Small and medium businesses, however, are cash flow-based, and have to have money on hand. Which is why they were still using XP in the first place: they needed to be able to do incremental replacement a a survival requirement, since they pretty much can only afford to replace a machine every month or so, rather than fully re-buying, or even replacing the 1/3 or 1/5 of their machines all at the same time.

Sadly, you can't glue things together to make a vertical market app with all the software living on the back end (as it does with Office365), which makes that a completely unsuitable alternative.

So:

(1) Microsoft missed the boat on Office365 because that's not actually how 50% of the people use their products: they don't use them stand-alone, or at least, they *also* use them as components in vertical market systems, if they use them standalone too.

(2) Microsoft missed the boat on bringing people forward onto the new OS, due to inability to use a new OS system as a fungible replacement for a Windows XP system; they really needed this to keep working as they EOL'ed XP.

(3) They assumed their primary market was education/corporate, rather than SMB (Small and Medium Businesses); most estimates put the Microsoft market at 72%+ SMB, since bigger businesses have options, which are generally corporate mandates. These include Lotus's suite, Google Docs, and other options, up to and including in-house supported OpenOffice, among others.

So you're really quite wrong about them doing well.

They've been trying to reinvent themselves on a lot of fronts (tablet OS company, Phone OS company, SAS company, Cloud provider company, etc., but they lack a really coherent vision for their existing base market which they could then leverage to enter and successfully compete in their new frontiers (either via "whole product" offerings, or via "Halo effect" offerings).

So, I think Microsoft must turn their ship, or they're in for some really rough times ahead.

It's one thing to shoot yourself in the foot once, perhaps even twice; it's another thing entirely to reload and continue firing.

Comment Re:LOL at 'herd immunity'... (Score 1) 580

Vaccination works.

You are likely an idiot if you do not get yourself and your kid vaccinated, if you can tolerate the vaccine.

If your kid is immunocompromised, they will either (A) not vaccinate or (B) be very careful about vaccination.

If they go route 'B', then they will do single dose vaccines, rather than combinations (i.e. separate measles vaccine, rather than MMR), and they will do an antibody titer (a relatively expensive test) to verify a primary, rather than secondary, immune response to the disease. A secondary response is generally a response to the IgE response, and is likely to make your child *more* sick than if they had not been immunized. Then, if necessary, they will immunize until they get a primary response. Your child will not be one of the ones with unknown vaccine effectiveness.

You definitely want an immunity to measles. There's up to an 8% chance of untreatable encephalitis from measles (the protein coat makes most broad spectrum antivirals ineffective as a stop-gap), after which your child will at a minimum be brain damaged, if they do not end up brain dead or actually dead.

So get vaccinated. Get your kid vaccinated.

Just don't do it for Measles or Diphtheria out of some misguided sense of social responsibility.

Comment Re:Here immunity is a myth (Score 1) 580

In almost all the outbreaks that have occurred in the USA, the source was someone who traveled to or from a region where the population there was generally not vaccinated and that had the inevitable high rates of infection and transmission.

Thank God we don't have people flooding into the U.S. who are undocumented to have been vaccinated, and who do not participate in local vaccination programs for fear of deportation; thank God those people do not make up 8.1% of the population, since herd immunity for the most virulent strain of measles requires 94% of people be vaccinated!

Slashdot really needs a sarcasm tag...

However, all of those outbreaks extinguished immediately. The reason they extinguished was due to herd immunity.

In New Jersey, anyway, the reason the Pertussis outbreak at the magnet school (which was caused by an infected teacher who had travelled abroad, and brought the disease back for "Show And Tell"), the reason in burnt out was they sent everyone home for 1.5X the contagious period. In other words, it was voluntary quarantine, not herd immunity.

Which does beg the question of why were are not giving immunity testing by titer to teachers and other school personnel likely to be primary vectors, and vaccinating them repeatedly until they test immune. It's much more likely for a teacher to take a trip to a disease hot zone like the Philippines or Thailand than it is for a student, after all.

Comment Daycare measles herd immunity is impossible (Score 1) 580

Daycare measles herd immunity is impossible. It's straight math.

#1 Can't give MMR below 12 months in age. Period. Exception: infants traveling internationally warrant the risk.

#2 Second dose is usually given 1 year after the first dose (at annual checkup), but at least 4 weeks after first dose, and prior to age 4
* immunity level 4 weeks after first dose: 74.3 % - 25.7% failure rate for single dose vaccination
* immunity level 4 weeks after second dose: 87.5% - 12.5% failure rate for two dose vaccination

#3 6% of individuals cannot be vaccinate

#4 Herd immunity threshold for measles: R0 of 12-18 = 83%-94% must be immune (not just vaccinated)

#5 12.5% + 6% = 18.5% ; 100% - 18.5% = 81.5% ; 81.5% 83% -- herd immunity is not possible

By all means, get your kid vaccinated for measles *WHEN THEY ARE OLD ENOUGH*.

If you are able to insist upon it, in fact, get the daycare workers to have an antibody titer to verify they are in fact immune, and revaccinate the shit out of them until they test positive for immunity before letting them around your kids.

Just don't do it because someone appeals to your social conscience about "herd immunity" for measles; they are relying on you being bad at math.

If the same person comes back and preaches herd immunity for Diptheria, Mumps, Polio, Rubella, or Smallpox -- *YES*, herd immunity for *those diseases* is possible.

PS: Pertussis (whooping cough) has the same problem as measles (R0 12-17, threshold 92%-94%).

Comment I am less optimistic. (Score 1) 18

Next 5 years - maybe sooner for the brands with CEOs under 30

I am less optimistic.

Unless the parts are all things that have to be sintered by a repair shop, most of the value in being an appliance dealer is in the repair business for intentional wear parts. It's what you get in exchange for selling the appliances in the first place. It's no mistake that the repair truck "happens" to have the part you need on the truck.

I suspect that it's going to take as long as it takes to get a portable system truck-mounted in something a small as a panel-van.

The major benefit to the OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) is an end run around the parts stocking requirement for 10 years, which is a legal hurdle to the introduction of any new product, including cars, in the U.S. today. But the dealers are still going to have to get their cut, or there will be no reasonable sales channel, since there's still a desire to see and touch in person the thing before you buy it, especially for major purchases, but even for relatively minor ones you will have to live with for a long time.

As an example: bathroom fixtures are relatively cheap and easy to replace, compared to a dishwasher, but you don't see that happen a lot. So there are still places where you can go to see what a given fixture looks like installed, and touch it, and play with all the levers and knobs, and decide if it's for you or not. I don't think that's going away soon for high inertia items, regardless of cost. Seeing is often not enough.

Comment Re:Making a decent living freelancing (Score 2) 55

No, I'm talking about solo contractors with high reputation. Hiring out to shoddy subcontractors will affect your reputation and actually prevent you from making more.

I think you are misunderstanding. You farm the *same* project out to 6 *different* subcontractors, and take the best one, and present it as your work product. Wash, rinse repeat.

It's also possible to get to that point with one lucky contract, but you can bet that if someone is making 100K at one of these sites, they can make 500K by hanging out their own shingle instead of using the site as an intermediary, and paying site fees. Reputation is not some score on some web site, reputation is something which happens word of mouth - which is incidentally, how you get contracting work, once you've got a reputation.

I suspect you of being here solely to push "Elance" as a platform for what I, personally, do not see as a viable business model for anyone but the platform vendor.

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