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Comment Re:Duh. (Score 0) 222

Keep in mind that a few rolls also don't confirm that the dice are as loaded as you claim they are. A huge part of the problem is not that the dice are loaded, but a) nobody knows what unbiased dice roll like, and b) nobody has evidence to confirm that the current dice are as loaded as claimed.

And narrative thinking comes much more naturally than statistical thinking.

I notice that once again, we're heavy on "narrative thinking" and light on actual evidence.

Comment Re:10 years ago on Slashdot (Score 1) 222

Hurricane INTENSITY is projected to increase BY THE END OF THE CENTURY. That has nothing to do with hurricane FREQUENCY which is primarily driven by short term WEATHER patterns.

Right. Hurricane INTENSITY, let us note, is also primarily driven by short term WEATHER patterns. Which makes your observation completely pointless.

Comment Re:Don't worry guys... (Score 2) 880

And what happens when, not if, actually crime happens because of law enforcement involvement or because the sting contributed in some significant way to the crime? We already have an example of the latter with the "Fast and Furious" operation by the ATF (Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms) contributing just over a couple thousand firearms (they assisted in getting those firearms smuggled over the US border to Mexico untraced and with who knows what else included in the package) to the Cartel wars in Mexico. Those firearms then showed up in numerous murder scenes (over 200 deaths by 2011, as I recall), including the death of a US border agent. The end result was that after two years, some minor characters in the smuggling operation were arrested, but not any important figures in a cartel.

The main problem here is that without the agency of the uncover agent, the crime might not have happened in the first place. But even when we know crime happens, the sting can actually make it worse in various ways (such as creating an easy, predictable route by which to commit additional crimes or enabling criminals to do worse than they could before).

Comment Re:Justice in the U.S.A (Score 0) 55

Mathematics is not truth. It is in a sense logical consequences. If certain premises hold, then certain consequences follow. The premises need not be true in our reality in order for us to study them mathematically.

You still have to show that the premises (such as your hypotheses) hold. That is beyond the ability of mathematics and leads you into some variation of empiricism such as scientific observation.

Comment Re:This isn't really surprising at all (Score 1) 176

Do not expect your next car to last as long as current one. There is much much progress done in programmed life of product.

The only way to sell such a car is as a lease where the car gets junked at the end of lease. Else you'll suffer a reputation hit from all the people who held onto the car past the cutoff - that would mean lower demand for your products. But a lot of the value in leasing is selling the vehicle at the end of the lease. So this means a substantial loss in return. So you need a vehicle that is sufficient quality that people are willing to pay you enough over its lifespan to profit off the vehicle yet you're junking the vehicle at the end of its lifespan.

I don't think the economics make sense unless the car market is far less competitive than it currently is.

Comment Re:You can thank the BANKS for that! And AT IT AGA (Score 1) 176

It isn't risk that is the problem, it's leverage. But I'm sure there's some current investment scheme (possibly to be enabled by the current bill you refer to) combined with future law out there that eventually will let someone borrow gobs of money on minuscule amounts of equity. Then we'll get another financial crisis like the many previous ones.

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