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Comment Re:Odd... (Score 5, Insightful) 150

Nope - under ICAO, for air crashes, preliminary report is supposed to be within one month.

Plus, this was a test flight, and was probably instrumented to death - very likely they have full real time telemetry before they even need to go near recorders in the wreckage. Apparently they have cockpit video too - something the aviation industry has always resisted (at least the unions).

Comment Re:my thoughts (Score 1) 372

> Indeed, where you're wrong is thinking that's a BAD thing -that's exactly what we, as the humans, WANT.

yes, to a point.

Y Pestis was once much scarier than it is now, which is good news.
Bad news is it killed 30-60% of population (in Europe at least) to get there.

Might be interesting to try and work out what 30% population loss does to the world economy - might depend which 30%, if it's all the old people it might not be too bad, if it's all the medics (likely)... If it knocks us right back to subsistence farming, how many more would we lose to starvation in 1st world ?

Comment Re:my thoughts (Score 5, Informative) 372

Some types of mutation are fantastically unlikely

Yep, that's all true, but there are other options, possibly no less scary.

This virus is well established in humans now in this outbreak, whereas before it was mostly a zoonosis (caught from animals). Mutations will now be being selected by their efficacy in prospering in us, not in the original host(s).

Some scientists believe this is already happening, we know it is mutating and there is evidence that it is mutating to become more infectious, to us: http://www.businessinsider.in/...

If it is true that viral loads are coming up earlier and higher than before, then it could be shedding before symptoms. Wouldn't be entirely surprising - containing it through hazmat-after-symptoms will probably select for strains that infect before symptoms. That would screw up all our containment measures rather well. Even if it just accelerates symptoms it could get a lot harder to contain - if first symptoms are a fever _and_ the infected is monitoring and gets themselves straight into care, further infection can be limited, but if first symptoms are fever and projectile vomiting you have much more of a problem.

All that said, scariest thing to me is that this is an African zoonosis that hasn't been out of Africa before except in the lab. We have no idea what hosts it may find in the non-African animal population, should it get the opportunity. If it finds an easy first-world reservoir host (maybe it likes our bats, or our foxes, or our rats) then it will become endemic, rapidly. Endemic ebola (in the absence of vaccine or cure) will be a game changer for 1st world medicine - think about every fever case to be isolated and treated using hazmat until tested negative (probably twice X days apart). Africa's health system, such as it is, is already feeling that pain - Ebola may well kill (already) more people via malaria than it does directly: http://www.reuters.com/article...

Comment Re:American Exceptionalism Strikes Again (Score 1) 384

Thomas Duncan, the ebola patient, wasn't sent home because as you put it, "poor Nigger, not gonna pay his bills." He was misdiagnosed. That isn't hard to understand. It isn't hard to get right.

Timeline details missteps with Ebola patient who died

From WSJ: “Princess Duo, a niece of Ms. Troh who lives in Dallas and spoke with her following the ER visit, said Ms. Troh recounted being specific in the information she gave nurses that night. “They asked him for ID, and whether he had insurance. And she told them he did not because he had just come from Liberia,” Ms. Duo said."

Sure he was "misdiagnosed" (or more realistically, not diagnosed, unless you have information as to what he was positively diagnosed with) , but only because they did not take the travel history properly or act on it.

Comment Re:Politics (Score 3, Interesting) 384

Nigeria overall has less resources than US, sure, but compare the what they actually did and the resources they actually _used_.

First, in Nigeria patient zero hit a good observant doctor with a clue, and instead of being sent home with antibiotics, was kept in hospital and restrained to prevent him leaving - all (I believe) before any official quarantine order or similar. The doctor that did that paid with her life. That action probably prevented an epidemic across Lagos, nothing to do with amount of resources and everything to do with one doctor being on the ball and prepared to fight the system to do the right thing.

The official response included tracing close to 1000 primary and secondary contacts, 18,500 personal visits and 100s in isolation / quarantine. They had emergency presidential decrees, overriding the rights people would normally have (probably a lot less than in the US to start with) and extensive use of law enforcement agencies. Widespread advertising campaigns, banning shaking hands, kissing etc., Changing holy communion practices in churches. Closure of _all_ schools.

The US doesn't appear to have done anything like that, despite its greater resources. Maybe Nigeria over-reacted, maybe US under-reacted and got lucky.

Comment Re:Can we stop trying to come up with a reason? (Score 5, Insightful) 786

It is because women are smarter than men, and are making more informed career choices.

Back in the days of punched cards and computers the size of a whole data centre now, and memory that didn't got away when the power went off (yeah, I know, that one's come around again now), programming was a 9-5 family friendly (as much as any job was) day job. Programmers and operators were often women (my mother was one), if not mostly women - seriously, just do a google images search for "mainframe operator 1960s" (just for one example), those images reflect the number of women working with computers that you'll see in printed material from that era too.

Somewhere around the 80's - 90's with the personal computer revolution, and gaming, and continuing with the dotcom boom, programming turned into an aggressive deadline-driven first-to-market ship-it-yesterday career, with a long-hours work-till-it's-done culture that spread from startups out to entire parts of the industry (see gaming...). And the women stopped coming.

To pick a couple of other industries / careers I have some (UK based) knowledge of: in roughly the same time scale, in medical and veterinary, professionals went from being on-call all-hours (junior doctors infamously worked a standard 120hr week) to having out-of-hours contracted out and on-call hours counted into the limits under EU working time directive. Every programming job I've had has required me to opt out of the working time directive, but doctors don't. Now take a guess on two professional careers in the UK which are (or soon will be) majority female... medical (doctors) and veterinary. That is where all the smart women went, and if you want to know why just look at the culture changes in those professions and in programming.

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