Comment Trust vs Desperation... (Score 4, Insightful) 331
The US is unique in developed economies - luxuries are cheap...big screen TV, a car and so on. But necessities are expensive...healthcare, decent education, and to an extent housing.
There is no longer any room for doubt that we are living in a plutocracy, not a democracy. And according to a recent NASA study, that is a prime indicator that we are a society on the brink of collapse.
US might be a plutocracy, but not a society about to collapse.
US has a great middle class, and even with the current crises, they are yet to get into lower class/poor. And even when you are poor, you don't starve.
Unless a huge shift occurs and the current middle class starts starving the collapse you are worried about won't happen.
The Arab spring occurred in countries where the middle class was not really strong - in numbers and social indicators. In Tunisia a man self immolated out of the tragic circumstances of not being able to feed his family. This seminal event kickstarted the uprising.
Saudi Arabia for all purposes is ripe for spring cleaning, but the middle class gets a lot of handouts from the rulers and they get fat and lazy. So there will be a lot of diabetes and heart attacks, not society collapsing.
Science Is Running Out of "Great" Things To Discover.
National Geographic is running out of "great" things to discover.
And instead of dirty and dangerous manufacturing jobs, people are moving to service and white collar jobs in a big way.
We will not have this conversation if the service and white collar jobs DID offset the loss of manufacturing jobs and any losses due to automation. That was the whole thread/post/page about.
...you are contradicting your own premise.
I was only making a larger point. Automation will result in reduction of number of hours, but unless some type of allowance makes up the deficit in income both with reduced number of hours and reduced work opportunities, the existing quality of life might decrease further. I was not contradicting any premise. Its also a complex issue with many possible permutations and combinations as outcome.
That is not something we can adopt, and it solve absolutely nothing.
"Lavish pensions" is only a symptom, not a cause. State will not be able to keep up the benefits unless some new revenue opportunity or tax base comes up. The same time, the automation will reduce existing tax base further. Its sort a double whammy. I have no idea about any solution.
Labor participation rate steadily increased throughout the 20th century despite the supposed decline of the kinds of "mass employment" job categories you imagine.
20th century was an exception...rapid industrialization happened which employed millions. Now that phase is over...no need for more factories to produce widgets, and existing factories are getting automated. Look around yourself.
Whether I pulled my statement out of thin air...lets wait for the future to decide. You can come back here in ten years and decide for yourself.
That is, if automation makes things twice as efficient, it means everybody can work half time and enjoy 20 more hours of leisure a week.
The above can be possible, but you may not get full time work even if you wanted. Not everyone can be retrained for software programming or robotics, and even if they were, you don't need millions and millions of people with such skillset.
That's why a growing acceptance or realization that some type of guaranteed allowance will have to be given to a majority when the jobs vanish. Many countries are already in that path - in US you have social security which kicks in after retirement, what if it kicks in early? (You need political will, and much greater acceptance to the truism "jobs are not there".) In India there is 'Right to Food', which can be the beginning of such programs.
Indian politicians and Chinese have may be a decade of "more growth for prosperity" philosophy to work its charm. US and other developed nations got no such space.
Of course, it's not actually true because people have an amazing capacity to come up with new products and services.
Here is the issue, the new products and services may not generate "mass employment". Amazon, Facebook and Google are great examples. The same with Tesla.
"Mass employment" happens with manufacturing or may be Walmart (not only employment at their stores, but building the stores to the driving the trucks), not with the new products or services you have in mind.
My mother (who is a grandmother to my kids) runs Debian Wheezy with the XFCE desktop environment.
Are you sure its your mother? Me thinks its Linus Torvalds in drag.
The major difference between bonds and bond traders is that the bonds will eventually mature.