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Comment Re:Predicitng the future is hard (Score 1) 352

So apparently this was a legitimate article from Ars Technica in 2005. Let's see how we're doing so far, just 8 years later.

1. The people of the future are a scantily clad people. They delight in showing off their naked, tattooed flesh.

Check.

2. In the future, an airport security checkpoint will work exactly the same as it does now, except that the scanning technology will be different. For instance, at the GE-manufactured checkpoint that I saw, the machine supposedly sniffs you for bomb residue.

Check.

3. The elderly Japanese people of the future will be so desperately lonely for companionship that they'll purchase creepy android replicas.

Not quite yet, but still seems headed in that direction.

4. The senior citizens of the future won't roll around in wheelchairs - not even cool robotic wheelchairs like those invented by Dean Kamen. Instead, they'll have robotic exoskeletons that will make them much stronger and faster than the non-elderly. So in addition to being the largest voting block in future elections, they'll also have superhuman strength and speed.

Not yet, and not looking too likely at this point. Robotic exoskeletons exist, but they're not even used much in heavy industry yet.

5. In the future, most robots will look pretty much like robots have looked since the 1970's.

Robots pretty much look like Frisbees. (I.e. the Roomba is the only successful robot so far.)

6. Apple's market share doesn't change much in the future.

Considering the iPhone and iPad, I'd say their market share has definitely increased.

7. On the weekends, the people of the future will take to the water in dolphin-shaped craft that don't look nearly as much fun to drive as a Seadoo of today.

No signs of that happening any time soon.

8. Dolphin watercraft aren't the only form of future transportation that's a bit cramped. The electrically powered cars of the future will be quite small.

We now have the Smart, the Fiat 500, the Mini, and several others. American drivers have a lot more choices in very small cars than they did in 2005.

9. Future entertainment will follow the trends that were established with the rise of disco. First, they replaced the live band with a DJ. Next, they'll replace the DJ with a large, floor-mounted robotic arm. ... Vinyl aficionados can rejoice, though, because vinyl records are still around.

Not sure about the DJs. That seems to not have changed much since 2005, and I think the mix of live music to DJs to Musak is likely to remain where it's been for the past few decades. Maybe more iTunes mixes though, especially at parties. The prediction about vinyl records was spot on though.

10. In a future 9/11-style scenario, where the top of a high-rise building is on fire, a Moller Aircar...

The Moller is still 50 years away, as always. Moller says it's 5 years away, as always.

Comment Re:Paver Stones on the Road to Single-Payer (Score 1) 637

I should have said "some control" over my elected officials.

Healthcare has never been denied.

Ah, now I see that it most certainly you that is deluded. Healthcare is denied by insurance companies all the time. Sure, if I go to a hospital, they'll do the minimum amount to keep me alive. But that's not the same as providing me all the healthcare I need. Plus, I will be charged for what the hospital did, even if I cannot pay. So I'm likely to be bankrupted by the experience.

Comment Re:Paver Stones on the Road to Single-Payer (Score 1) 637

At least I have control over my elected officials. I have no control over the people running my insurance company.

The whole idea of profiting from denying healthcare is abhorrent. The government-run programs at least remove most of that.

But of course, this is just a red herring -- ObamaCare doesn't actually remove this function (or profits, except for profits over 20%) from the insurance companies.

Comment Re:A cynic's view (Score 1) 637

George W Bush: started 2 wars on false pretenses

While I agree that W and Cheney are war criminals (failing to treat POWs as required by the Geneva Conventions), I'm failing to come up with a 2nd war started on false pretenses. Iraq is obvious. But the other major war -- Afghanistan -- was in retaliation for harboring the 9/11 terrorists. I have no problem with having gone into that war. I actually had a problem with the war in Iraq getting in the way of eradicating the terrorists in Afghanistan. (Both of which lead the creation of more terrorists than we eliminated.)

Can you please explain the 2nd war started on false pretenses?

Comment Re:Eh (Score 1) 637

Generally speaking, the NHS is fantastic when anything life-threatening happens, but after care can be crap

That's pretty much the situation in the private healthcare market in the USA as well. Doctors are good at immediate needs, but not so good at managing longer-term health issues. They typically just put you on medications for anything long term.

Comment Re:Real prices vs. fantasy prices (Score 1) 533

I'd bet they are good +/- 50% of the figures he is quoting. He did a pretty good job of coming up with a price on the Falcon 1/5 as well as the Tesla Roadster back when people like you were saying he was a nut case that didn't have a clue what he was doing with those vehicles.

The Tesla Roadster was supposed to cost $80k, but ended up at about $110k. So about a 40% cost overrun on that.

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