Comment Re:Gamechanger (Score 1) 514
No, I don't and the proof of that is:
Yes, you do... your reading comprehension is terrible.
Go back and reread what I wrote, you really, really misunderstood like all of it...
No, I don't and the proof of that is:
Yes, you do... your reading comprehension is terrible.
Go back and reread what I wrote, you really, really misunderstood like all of it...
Need a GPU in your phone? Fuck carrying one around. Fuckin powering the thing. I want to rent one, on an as-needed basis, sitting in a dark underground data center two states away where the weather is cooler and the power is cheaper.
Sound absurd today? Yep! Could arbitrary, on-demand, on-the-fly-provisioned remote computation be the next multi-billlion dollar idea? Could be if bandwidth was plentiful and cheap!
Isn't that what the game streaming services for the PS4 and XB1 are supposed to be doing?
Actually, it is rather smart... You could provide far more GPU power for less money, if everyone had enough bandwith... Same with CPU power...
Frankly, my internet connection is faster than my USB 2.0 memory sticks, which tend to read and write at about 10mb/s, while my internet is 18mb/s. When it comes to moving files around the house, my wired gigabit ethernet connection is FAR faster than copying stuff to USB and moving it by hand.
If I went with AT&T's new GigaFiber service, the same would be true there as well, assuming the speed is as stable as FIOS has been.
You left off the most important qualifier
That dude's usage is the future if 100+ symmetric mbps becomes the norm. HIs particulars are not, but the general idea absolutely is. Ask any middle class mother in America -- she's got thousands of photos of her kids and would absolutely love to have thousands of video clips of her kids. Making sure that she never loses a single one of them would be a big deal. Making sure her extended family can see them at a moment's notice would be a big deal. And that's just one application. If you build it, they will come.
^ That too...
My Mom's upload speed is terrible, but she is on Carbonite and while it took a long time to upload the first time, it finally got uploaded (she had no backups before then).
She takes a lot of digital pictures, now they are also backed up to the cloud.
She also has a link to a folder on my wife's OneDrive that has our family pictures, she (and my wife's Mom) can go online and view them any time they want.
Backup has become cheap, $60 a year or so, $5 a month. A lot of people currently don't backup, but that will change as people lose their files and pictures and learn their lesson. I know it happened to me.
I am not sold on how it works with the current utility grid model.
It probably works if 10% of the customers install it. It probably doesn't if 100% install it.
That being said, with such a system, why do you need a grid tie?
The interesting part of this becomes... put enough solar on your roof and put a half dozen of these in your garage... and be free of the power company...
A year ago I would have thought such an idea was further off, 10-20 years... now it appears it could be done this year.
I'll admit, I'm impressed...
With realistic estimates for the technology, a best-case estimate for almost everything else, and no capital costs, you need a $0.15 price difference just to break even. If the price for these things goes down, that's bad news for you, the early adopter who paid the current price, because then more people will buy them, and that increases demand when the price is low and reduces demand when the price is high.
All true, but if no one is an early adopter, then it will never happen.
I'm probably one of the people who SHOULD be doing it, being in the upper brackets of income...
Maybe a better way would be to say the last 2% or 3% of driving cases not already covered. Even the Leaf covers probably 70% of driving cases (random percent guess). But it's easy to think of very common use cases that it would not reasonably cover that are not in that last few percent. The current Tesla models do.
Driving cross country in a Tesla is doable *now* depending on your requirements (i.e. minimum stops and can't be stopped more than 10 minutes). I guess those use cases are things like you have to drive to a wedding 10 hours away and overslept. You can make it, but
Actually, from a "technical" point of view, I agree with you. Most of the driving cases are already covered by EVs. Even those like the Leaf.
My point is that people by and large don't make car purchasing decisions based on the technical data, they buy emotionally.
You need EVs that are WAY beyond what most people "need" before they'll "want" them.
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That being said, I just noticed that Tesla a few weeks ago upgraded their base car from a 60kwh to a 70kwh and made some other changes, it is now four wheel drive for example.
Looking at the base model, which is no longer quite so bare... the purchase price and lease cost is no longer as crazy as it once was.
I don't want a "car", so it really isn't of interest to me... but if it were in the shape of a SUV, I might be more interested. Yes, I saw the Model X, it is probably too small for me.
As I sit here at my computer looking at my Yukon XL parked out front, it seems to me that if you remove the big 6.2L V8 engine, the transmission, the differental, and all the other parts needed to make a gas car work, you could put the motors from the P85 version of the Tesla on there and get about the same, if not better performance. The battery wouldn't be good for as much range, maybe down to 150-170 miles, but that would be enough most of the time.
How much would it cost? How much of the price of my truck is the engine and gas parts and how much is the sheet metal, interior, etc? I honestly don't know.
I paid $73,000 for my truck last year, it is fully loaded with everything you could want. Would I pay "more" to get an EV version? Meh, I don't want to, but if we had supercharger stations and places to plug in everywhere, I might consider it.
If you look at Dallas:
http://www.teslamotors.com/fin...
The only real place to charge would be at home. However 150 miles of range would be plenty for driving around town. I-20 and I-30 don't have superchargers, so frankly it doesn't work here yet, but I imagine they'll get them at some point.
Frankly, I don't understand why gas stations don't install them, I would pay for power, I don't expect it for free. And a 15-20 min recharge time gives me a reason to go inside and eat something.
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So to sum it up, if the cost was similar, if the range was 150+ miles, and if you could put the Tesla EV tech into my Yukon, I might become interested...
That is a lot of "ifs", to be sure. But it is quite possible that in 20 years, it will be a no-brainer.
Well that is California, what do you expect?
http://www.dovetailsolar.com/S...
Average of $3.77 per watt for residential systems, as low as $2.50 for large commercial installations.
California is paying stupid prices.
While you are right that 10/10 is not enough for some use cases, it is sufficient for the great majority of people and a good baseline. Netflix at the highest bit-rate is only about 6 megabit. 10Mb would allow a comfortable amount of headroom.
Today, for right now, at the 720p or crappy 1080p they are streaming...
What about 4k? Give it 5 years, that'll be more common..
We have 3 large TVs in the house, it is not uncommon that the adults are watching something on one and the kids on another. Sometimes two of the kids are on one TV and the third kid is on the iPad watching something.
So 3 HD streams.
Then we have about.... 20 some odd devices that like to auto-update... Say the PC or PS4 or whatever wants to download something while we're watching TV?
25 meg would do it, barely, with no headroom, but 10? Not even close.
I think there are a lot of homes today that would go to streaming, if they had 25 meg, but at 3, 6, or 10 meg? It isn't enough for multiple streams.
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Don't get me wrong, I understand what you're saying, and yes universal 10/10 next year is probably better than universal 25/25 in 5 years. But I'd suggest both are crap.
We rolled out national telephone lines a very long time ago and provided for universal service.
We now have good quality fiber, there is no reason to do any of this slow stuff, be prepared for the entire next century and roll out gigabit to everyone in the country.
Lack of access to technology and the Internet will only hurt America going forward.
Put a battery pack on your home, like one of these. Get an inverter which feeds excess to the battery and NEVER exports to the grid. The power company loses their only technical reason to gripe, because you are no longer doing Net Metering. At that point, it's all about the Benjamins.
Indeed, if you get to the point where your home is truly Net Zero, long-term, you can go completely off-grid. At which point they no longer have a say in the matter.
Except, of course, my local co-op provides both my power and my natural gas, so I can't ditch them even if I wanted to.
Actually, I don't know if they would sell me JUST natural gas, I've never looked into it. Since they are a co-op, they might, I really don't know.
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As a side note, I've always viewed natural gas as superior to electricity due to the lower cost. My natural gas dryer, cooktop, HVAC, etc. use less... well, money, than electric versions would.
But they burn fossil fuel, which won't last forever.
So the question becomes, at what point do we switch from gas to electric? I'll miss my "instant on" cooktop.
There are some interesting concepts out there (Germany) where grid-tie solar inverters can be designed to help stabilize the grid - these large utilities could be adopting such technologies for everyone's benefit. Instead they want to just ignore technical solutions and add a fee.
So, I think they really mean "threat to their core business" not "threat to grid stability".
Sadly I'd have to agree with you...
For some reason, many large businesses would rather hold on to dear life to their old business models rather than embrace a new idea.
Tesla's product could be a real game changer, especially with the big utilities beginning to bully customers with the help of the Koch brothers.
However, I to be realistic most of us would need multiple power walls per home here in the desert because summer daily power usage can go up 5x or more due to air conditioning load.
Yes, that thought occurred to me as well.
Question, are those HVAC units updated to efficient models? I was rather impressed at how much power my new HVAC saved over my old one.
My compressor went out and I considered having it repaired, but it was about 1/3 the cost of replacing it and it was a 10 year old 13 SEER unit. My new unit is a 16 SEER two stage, two speed unit and my power bill went down an average of $100 a month. It will pay for itself in about 7 years, making it largely free in my mind. (the finance cost is a bit more than the monthly savings, but it has a 10 year parts and labor warranty and should last longer since it isn't a builder's grade unit).
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I just wish I could install solar that would pay for itself in 7 years. If I could, I'd do it tomorrow.
HECO has been screwing their customers for years with the highest electricity prices in the nation. Now they found a less expensive option (PV) and they're flocking to it in droves.
The "Free Market" isn't so great when it fucks you, is it?
HECO is nothing like a "free market", since I can't go install a competing power company, now can I?
And they almost certainly won't remain constant.
When I switched away from my oil heating system, I miscalculated the huge surge in oil prices, so my ROI was insanely short.
Same with having a fuel efficient vehicle - I'm spending about a car payment less a month on gasoline than the folks who just have to have guzzlers.
Prices for established energy sources very seldom go down over the long term.
I am one of those "gas guzzler drivers". I love my big truck...
Last night I watched a Head 2 Head video from MotorTrend
Pitting a Tesla P85D against a Dodge Charge Hellcat...
I have to admit, the Tesla looked like fun. It isn't a sports car, but it wasn't meant to be one, but it sure seemed to have some fun driving experiences...
I think one of my objections to EVs is that they are all cars or little mini CUVs.
If Tesla could make a Suburban an EV that was fun to drive and cost about what current Suburban's cost, I might consider one.
I wouldn't have said that a year ago. So EVs are warming up to me... except for their cost...
The P85D in that video is $132K! That is nuts. As he says in the video, if you own both cars for 20 YEARS, you're still $1,000 ahead in total cost driving to the Dodge and buying gas as compared to the Tesla. (Maintenance might be closer than you think, the Dodge's engine should still be good in 20 years, the Tesla will need a new battery pack for $35k in that time)
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So Elon, get on it, make me a full size EV SUV for $75K with a 250 mile range!
So, if you're lucky, you will just break even with the purchase price of the battery a year or so after the warranty runs out (if it doesn't die before then). And that is ignoring the time value of money and whatnot (simply leaving your money in a savings account would be a better use of your money because you'd at least get some interest). So no, this isn't going to save you anything.
That might all be true, except for 2 things:
1. If Elon can get enough early adopters to buy in, he might get his costs down. If this were $2K instead of $3,500, those numbers change quite a bit.
2. If the night power is provided by hydro or wind and the day peak power is provided by natural gas generators, then by time-shifting your power, you're producing less CO2. This matters more to some people, less to others, but it is a point to consider.
"Experience has proved that some people indeed know everything." -- Russell Baker
