People receiving their first advice probably will punish their children, kick intruders out of their wifi or look for alternatives either changing protocols (http, torrent, ftp, irc, ...) or hiding trough proxies, TOR or VPN's.
People receiving their second advice are already more likely of knowing what's happening and why they receive it, they are also probably starting to consider paying an anomiser/VPN service.
People disconnected after 3 warnings probably know what they are doing wrong and how they do it. They are pissed off from being cut off the internet, and most probably will try to seek revenge in some way against the one responsible for their cut off (ISP, political party, ...).
Although I think this law is abusive, without wanting it, Hadopi is a great way to push users towards securing their communications and greatly contributes towards the concept of anonymity on internet on a large scale.
Not only will geeks, corps, govs and criminals use 4096 bit rsa vpn's, but the average "joe" in his garage will now also want to use it.
This is gonna be fun to decrypt : enjoy :p