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Comment Most Likely Answer (Score 3, Informative) 574

7 choices, but 0%, 100%, and Just Cowboy Neal can be thrown out since those are discrete choices- it only takes 1 other person to make choosing one of those choices invalid. The given choices don't address what happens between the choices- zero point something, for example. Leaving that aside since we can't determine what to do there, we're left with 4 non-discrete choices: 1% - 25%, 26% - 50%, 51% - 75%, and 76% - 99%. There is a slight difference because the 4th of these choices stops at 99% (maybe), making it smaller than the other 3 choices. If we call these 4 choices roughly equal, then there should be an average of 25%. I don't remember if this would be a normal distribution or not, but it's like flipping a coin 1,000 times. On average, the coin should come up heads 500 times, but the likelihood of the coin coming up heads exactly 500 times is very small. This would seem to make 1% - 25% and 26% - 50% equally likely (roughly).

But how are people going to answer the poll? How many people always choose the Cowboy Neal option? How many people choose randomly (7 choices, 100/7, ~14.29%, 1% - 25%)? There are going to be people who will choose 0%, 100%, or Just Cowboy Neal, so this would nudge the relative balance between 1% - 25% and 26% - 50% in favor of 1% - 25%.

I'd say my money's on 1% - 25%.

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