I think you've got it right - for some ideal world lacking other impetuses.
A more interesting question in my mind is: how to predict business' push for one type of app over the other(s)?
Microsoft is in some respects falling by the wayside, so they've jumped on the subscription bandwagon for applications - not just support/service - which seems to contradict all of their previous practices as they nix MSDN subscriptions and forbid Windows versions of some Xbox games...
Concurrently Google has been removing many services people like and charging more for things like map-related services while they play around with YouTube and other websites many netizens seem to love. But they're also pushing their own OS, browser, and now hardware...
We live in interesting times, my friend.
8-PP