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Comment Re:Good thing climate change isn't real! (Score 1) 293

How about: "Yes, the earth is warming slightly. We're probably causing a little bit of it, but there have been continual climate fluctuations for millions of years, without any human cause, so it's entirely likely that this is at least somewhat natural, as well. As a natural process, it will reverse itself with time, just like it has every other time in the past."
Or maybe: "Yes, the earth has warmed marginally over the past 50 years. It seems to have paused at the moment, though, so maybe it's going to start cooling by itself within the next couple of decades, so maybe we're not causing it at all."
Or even: "Well, there is a bit of warming, but it's not anywhere near as quick as it was at the end of the ice age. We're probably causing most of it, but we're looking at a temperature that's still lower than it was 10,000 years ago, so we're certainly not at a point of no return yet, regardless of what the extremists are shouting."

All of those statements include verifiable facts, and when those facts are checked they do not support the opinions expressed. So none of them are tenable positions for rational people to hold.

Temperatures would be declining without human activity, so we are entirely responsible for the increases. The temperature 10,000 years ago was lower than today's temperatures. There's no no known mechanism for why temperatures would cool off. We know that we're adding a greenhouse gas to the atmosphere in massive quantities. Logic says if you turn up the heat, it will get warmer, not colder.

Comment Re:Melting is normal (Score 1) 293

Interglacial temperatures don't follow a standard deviation normal curve type graph.

Correct.

They spike up very quickly after the ice age ends, drop back down, and generally fluctuate a significant amount without any human input at all.

Not according to any the historical temperature graphs that I've seen. The temperature rises rapidly at the end of the ice age and then levels off an eventually begins to fall again.

At the beginning of the current interglacial, the global temperature spiked up by at least 4 degrees in just a few hundred years.

Seems plausible. It's often noted that the difference between a mile of ice in Northern United states and today is about 4 degrees.

That's a massively faster increase than the current warming trend that everybody seems to be so worried about.

Only if by "massively faster" you actually mean "about the same". The worst case scenario is about 3.5 degrees by the year 2100. The expected rise is between 2 and 6 degrees by 2400. So human warming is maybe a little more, maybe a little less than the end of the last glacial period.

It's also cooler now than it was during that spike, but the alarmists never seem to publicize that fact.

There was a paper published by Easterbrook, I think, that made that claim, but he goofed on the "present" date. He thought the last temperature in his data series went up to 2010, when it was actually 1855 (the last entry was 95 years before the "geological" present which is 1950). So while the end of the last glacial period was warmer than 1855, when you adjust for his misunderstanding of current temperatures (ie, you don't use 1855 as your benchmark for 21st century temperatures), you find that the end of the glacial period is actually somewhat lower than present day temperatures.

Comment Re:A poltical agenda? (Score 1) 249

Not actually true unless you use some bizarre definition of "man made co2". Human contributions have raised the the CO2 level from around 280 ppm to around 400 ppm. That's 120 ppm, the human contribution of the last 18 years is about 36 ppm. Which means the last 18 years represent about 30% of our total contribution and a little less than 10% of the total CO2 in the atmosphere.

Comment Re:California lol (Score 1) 545

It is my understanding that herd immunity is something that occurs over time naturally through generational multiplication, a Darwinian-style removal of the organisms less suitable to survive and that evolving state provides an incubator for the adapted immune systems to become more potent.

To start with your understanding is wrong. Herd immunity is a state where the percentage of members in the herd who are immune to a disease is high enough that when an outbreak occurs, the outbreak ends and the disease becomes no longer present in the herd again.

Secondly for your natural Darwinian system to work, the disease would have to have to become the dominant selective pressure that determines which individuals are able to pass on their genes. In practice that would involve a close to 100% mortality rate on the unprotected population, because genetically inherited resistance to the disease has to become the most important selective pressure. Do you really think it's good idea to let the majority of the human population (probably including you) die from a disease over and over again over multiple generations to get "natural herd immunity" because you aren't a fan of the "artificial" process?

Comment Re:finally, some responsibility (Score 2) 545

I just wonder whether the effectiveness rate is much higher than what they say because I bet 90%+ or more of the people who got ill were vaccinated.

In most cases, you'd lose that bet. For example, at the Disneyland measles outbreak, 54 people became infected, 48 of them were unvaccinated, 6 of them were vaccinated. Now given the general vaccination rate of around 92% that means roughly 8% of the people exposed would be unvaccinated. If we assume that measles was 100% effective in infecting the unvaccinated and that the exposed people were vaccinated at roughly the average rate, that would mean that roughly 594 people didn't catch measles because of the vaccine as a primary effect (48 is 8% of 600) and would indicate the vaccine was roughly 99% effective. In addition, because they didn't get measles those 594 also didn't risk infecting other people.

This is what herd immunity is, with a high level of vaccination the outbreak doesn't spread and doesn't become a self-sustaining disease. Instead, the outbreak dies out.

Comment Re:I can see this running afoul of.... (Score 1) 545

By that reasoning, the government can force you to become Christian to use public schools.

No, not really. Clearly requiring students be Christian to attend public school would be a violation of the separation of church and state, and the intent would be to create an advantage for a particular religious group. The difference here is that there is a reasonable, compelling, and evidence based argument that requiring children to be vaccinated is good for the children and the public. There must be limits to the reasonable accommodation of religious beliefs, and this is not a controversial position. For example, we don't allow people to murder consequence-free in the name of religion, and almost everyone agrees that's a good thing. The problem is that when your personal religious beliefs start to endanger the health and safety of your fellows, then you religious freedoms may be curtailed because your rights don't trump the rights of other people, and some people seem to have trouble accepting that other people also have rights and freedoms.

Comment Re:Counterexamples. (Score 1) 545

"People have a right to decide for themselves what they put in their bodies" or "The state should not be able to force people to put things in their bodies they don't want to put in them" or something akin to this.

That's not what the law says or does. You still have the freedom to leave your children unprotected from crippling diseases, however, they are will not be allowed in the public school system, where your parental negligence would endanger other children. Frankly, if you reframe the issue to "Should the state be able to set admission requirements for public schools?", the controversy goes away because the answer is obviously yes. Of course, I think that's actually the correct way to looking at this. The whole "violating my freedom" angle is bullshit. No SWAT team is going to break into your home, hold you down, and inject the measles vaccine into you, so it is clearly not a question of forced injections.

The problem is too many people want to use religion as an excuse to avoid doing something that they don't want to do and then use it again to escape any consequences for their actions.

Comment Re:A poltical agenda? (Score 1) 249

So... There's no global warming because you start your graph on a unusually warm year, use a satellite derived value, and one that measures the estimated temperature of the lower troposphere?

That's three strikes against your example graph already, and I barely had to look at it.

If we look at the surface temperature average, like HADCRUT4, there's clearly warming even if we start with your cherry-picked start point. The trend is much more pronounced if we use a 30 year graph.

Heck if we use a 30 year RSS graph the trend is pretty clear there too.

So, who are you trying to fool?

Comment Re:-dafuq, Slashdot? (Score 2) 249

Skepticism is denying that the subject at hand has been sufficiently verified.

No, it isn't. Skepticism is reserving judgement on an issue until sufficient factual evidence has been provided to actually make an informed decision.

The idea that all "deniers" ignore all evidence is often used to form strawman arguments.

Of course deniers don't ignore all evidence, they only ignore the evidence that is contrary to their position and accept unquestioningly anything that supports their position.

Comment Re:Seems he has more of a clue (Score 1) 703

We might cut the future increases, but cutting to half of current levels? I don't see that happening, you'd need FAR more than a carbon tax to make that happen.

The modest carbon tax in British Columbia has cut emissions in that province by 16% while emissions grew in the rest of Canada by 3% (a rate that likely would have grown higher still if Ontario and Quebec weren't also working to reduce emissions). A carbon tax, by itself, might not reach a 50% reduction, but it could spur changes in consumer behavior. For instance, now that gas prices have fallen again, sales of SUVs are increasing again after declining during our last period of high prices. That's probably a missed opportunity to reduce emissions.

Without a carbon tax, the United States is aiming at (and currently looks like it will hit) a target of 20% below 2005 levels. If a carbon tax had been added to the policy, the United States might have been able to hit 40% below 2005 levels, which is not that far from 50%.

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