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Comment Re:Transnistrina (Score 1) 133

You could not be more right by comparing Transnistria to Donbass.

  • In both cases, the conflict ignited because the state decided to suppress Russian as an official language.
  • In both cases, the state was not able to recover control over the separatist regions
  • In both cases, the separatist regions asked through referendum to be integrated into Russia
  • In both cases, the Russian parliament refused integration
  • In both cases, Russia does not recognize the separatist region as being a sovereign state.

The Russian strategy is the same: either the region remains outside of the state control, or the state is federalized to offer some autonomy to the separatist region. In both cases, the state cannot integrate NATO: either it has a latent conflict and other NATO member states do not want to automatically act on it as NATO treaty request. In the federalization case, integrating NATO would require all federalized regions to agree, and obviously the pro-Russia regions would refuse.

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