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Comment Re:Time to move into the Century of the fruit bat. (Score 1) 1198

Clayton's story is a sad one, beginning with his mother allegedly using drugs while pregnant with him. She then abandoned him at the age of three, which devastated him and caused him to become extremely attached to his father, whom he idolized. Unfortunately, his father was a poor role model. He physically abused Clayton and forced him into using drugs at a young age. He encouraged sexually activity and frequently watched pornographic movies in front of him. Clayton's father also taught him and encouraged him to steal, punishing Clayton if he got caught. Extended family members testified that they believe Clayton was sexually abused by his older brother. Allegedly, while Clayton was incarcerated at an adult correctional facility at the age of 16, he was raped by several older men.

If you fuck someone up, you end up with a fuck-up.

Deserve to die? I don't even know how you judge such things. I do know that many who die deserve to live. We should focus our attention on that one first.

Comment Re:Why do people listen to her? (Score 1) 588

Essentially I believe that it could be harmful for young babies/toddlers to have too many vaccines administered at the same time - 3 vaccines during the same office visit, for example.

This source notes that:
1) Autism is not an immune-mediated disease. Unlike autoimmune diseases such as multiple sclerosis, there is no evidence of immune activation or inflammatory lesions in the CNS of people with autism [38]. In fact, current data suggest that genetic variation in neuronal circuitry that affects synaptic development might in part account for autistic behavior [39]. Thus, speculation that an exaggerated or inappropriate immune response to vaccina-tion precipitates autism is at variance with current scientific data that address the pathogenesis of autism.
and
2) Vaccines do not overwhelm the immune system. Although the infant immune system is relatively naive, it is immediately capable of generating a vast array of protective responses; even conservative estimates predict the capacity to respond to thousands of vaccines simultaneously [30]. Consistent with this theoretical exercise, combinations of vaccines induce immune responses comparable to those given individually[31].

Comment Re:What if we overcorrect? LA comparison (Score 1) 343

All this *sounds* good but It's going to take a heck of a lot of subsidies to include storage of electrical power if you are figuring on going 100% renewables.

It's probably a good idea to go 100% low-to-zero emissions for power generation. Air travel pretty much needs kerosine ATM.

But that includes nuclear, which isn't "renewable", it's just not fossil fuel.

All this stuff you suggest is rapidly increasing the per-KWh costs of PV and Wind, which is currently marginal ROI.

Not all of it. Having a hydro power pick up the variable part of the generation doesn't. And thermal storage by molten saltpeter has large economies of scale. And the cost and efficiency of wind turbines and PV cells are improving on a scale that's hard to believe. (Note that large commercial solar generators tend to be concentration solar rather than PV cells).

Battery storage is at best 70% efficient when you subtract out the AC-DC and DC-AC conversion loss.

Battery storage is okay for a residential home with no grid connection. For commercial sized operations, alternatives like liquid saltpeter off much better efficiency. At concentration solar plants, the heat is captured in the saltpeter first, and so the energy loss from converting electricity to heat and back again does not occur.

THEN you need to add to your cost model the price of the industrial scaled storage capacity so you can keep the lights on on a calm cloudy day and night.

No, industrial storage in saltpeter systems is much cheaper than batteries. Both for initial material costs, and for ongoing maintenance.

Which may be what you are suggesting, but I dare say you haven't really grasped what such nonsense does to an economy.

On the other hand the lack of fuel costs means that the cost of electricity doesn't fluctuate with the whims of the global economy, and Saudi Aramco.

This provides a much more reliable platform for building an economy.

But I certainly agree that the first 30%-40% solar and wind is cheaper than the next 60%-70%, because of the need to fit generation to use. So lets run to that point at least.

Comment Re:What if we overcorrect? (Score 1) 343

So you're saying in effect that if the buffalo herds had grown to ~30% larger that it would have had a significant effect on global warming? That's quite a leap.

I don't think I did anything to suggest significance. All I did was show that the loss of the bison herds of North America wasn't accompanied by a drop in Methane production by the bovine gut. We could calculate the significance if you like.

This whole CO2 and climate-change alarmism is not any of that.

Ah. A climate science conspiracy theorist.

Hi.

Did you know that there are about zero scholarly papers and about zero scientific organizations that support climate change denial?

[1] As of 2007, when the American Association of Petroleum Geologists released a revised statement,[11] no scientific body of national or international standing rejected the findings of human-induced effects on climate change.

[2] Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position.

The Earth is in a warming cycle that will continue until it peaks and reverses back towards another ice age, no matter what we puny humans do.

You don't believe in the greenhouse effect?

Rather than attempt to put chains on the growth of civilization and the freedom of men, why not trust that humans will do what they've always done? Adapt, survive, overcome, and prosper.

What you have there starts with a straw man. No one is suggesting putting chains on the growth of civilization nor freedoms.

As to humans adapting, surviving, overcoming and prospering, the way we have always done that is to use science. Not ignore it.

With the growth of civilization also comes a growth in our ability to adapt, overcome, and mitigate.

With the growth of technology, perhaps. The magnitude of civilization by a lot of measures merely increases our vulnerability.

Once humans start moving such activities off-planet, there will be a chance for Earth's natural processes to abate and recover from the damage we may have done on our way to maturity.

This is very pie-in-the-sky. Ignoring issues that are killing about 150,000 people annually right now, and set to grow, because one day we might be able to move industry and food production off planet, when we have zero capacity to move anything living off planet without ferrying all their biological needs up from earth, and also exposing them to considerable risk, is certainly visionary. But reducing greenhouse emissions is something we can do today. And should have done 30 years ago.

You can't have humans totally proscribed from causing any potential damage to the environment or climate.

No. We've already done a lot of damage to the environment and climate. The point is that reducing emissions is the economically most cost effective path. So we should do that. Adaptation is much more costly when you do the economic analysis.

Comment Re:Engineer and Doctor? (Score 1) 737

> So you're assuming that everything we currently have disappears over night? I'm assuming complex manufacturing plants stop due to the apocalypse. You still have your car. But you can only fill it up until the petrol stations run out, because no-one is refining oil. And you can only repair it to the extent that you can do yourself. And if you want parts you have to go to the warehouse yourself and find it. And that only works until the warehouse stock runs out.

I would think that with a reduced human population the many millions of scalpels and other medical supplies already sitting on shelves would last quite a while

I don't think that we have the power grid, if its an apocalypse. So you can do operations so long as your diesel generators maintain power. And that's if you have a couple of surgical nurses and an anesthetist. Without a working radiology department, most of your surgery is going to be investigative, in the hope you can do something about it once you get it.

The capacity to maintain the sterile field would compromise after a few patients if you can't run the autoclave, even if you have some sterile equipment available on shelves. And plenty of antibacterial foam.

Overall, I think that starvation due to not being able to supply food is going to be the bottleneck rather than inability to set complex fractures.

as would a lot of the other stuff we have, including computers and other battery operated electronics.

GPS would only slowly fail, if the apocalypse is not solar activity related. Still, there's not a lot that would be of serious survival value to compute. You urgently need food, you urgently need clean water, and that probably means leaving the city once the sewers fail, and you urgently need fire to keep warm and cook, once your barbecue is out of gas.

Comment Re:What if we overcorrect? (Score 1) 343

You forget fertilizer production.. BY FAR the biggest offender from an CO2 perspective.

Fertilizer manufacture is only responsible for about 4.5% of the emssions from the food system according to this nature news article.

You will condemn to starvation a large part of the world by stopping that.

Phosphate is a limited resource. We're going to have to find a way to do without at some point. In the meantime, where there is current starvation in the Sahel and South East Asia, fertilizer is often not used each year, or not used at all, so the hit to production will occur first where it doesn't matter as much. Food prices will increase in the first world.

Carrying the nutrients off the soil each year with the crop is a bad idea. The way to put them back is to shit them back on to the agricultural land. This will eventually happen, I think. There's some social (and health) issues to overcome, but there's really no sustainable way forward that includes washing the nitrates and phosphates out to sea.

Comment Re:What if we overcorrect? (Score 1) 343

Any scientists care to produce data on how much cooling that hunting the large numbers of truly enormous herds of buffalo that covered many square miles to near-extinction produced? The temperature records I've seen do not show any such corresponding result.

There are about twice as many bovines in the US now. Estimates of the population of bison in the 1500s are 30-60million. There are 90million cattle in the country now. The biomass of a bison was commonly 300-1000kg. The biomass of a beef cow at slaughter is about 600kg average: So I what you're seeing is a replacement of one bovine with another, with a increase in population and biomass.

Comment Re:What if we overcorrect? LA comparison (Score 1) 343

Problem with both though is that you never really know how much power you are going to get from these sources so you simply cannot easily plan ahead.

They work when you have a hydro dam behind them that can be altered to meet demand, it doesn't need to be gas or coal.
To use solar and wind when isolated from the grid, you need batteries.
On the power station level, there are options; Thermal storage in liquid saltpeter is pretty efficient, and that has been used in commercial plants for over 5 years last month. There may be better solutions (so to speak) now.

This means that you have to over build wind and solar and under commit generation capacity based on the weather forecasts.

Or support with Hydro. Or store the energy, perhaps thermally. Away from good grid infrastructure, it might be cost effective to had the consumer store their own energy.

But over building and under committing is another option. It's just not the only one. The other choices don't require halving your sales though, so I'd go with one of them.

if you look at what they call subsidies, the US rates lowest as a percentage of GDP.

Funny metric. It's the subsidy as a percentage of cost of the fossil fuel that affects the market, not that the US has a lot of GDP from low-energy-cost industries such as IP compared to other countries.

Also, the IMF includes things like subsidies for buying home heating oil for fixed income or poor citizens who find themselves unable to heat their homes, or helping with electric bills and other such support as being an subsidy.

A subsidy is the taxpayer paying for something that helps the companies bottom line, however obfuscated. Expensing of exploration costs is a big money spinner for medium operations, because exploration can be timed to coincide with a good profit year. It turns out that geothermal energy companies have the same tax breaks, but the cost to the taxpayer in lost revenues is almost all from fossil fuel exploration.

Comment Re:What if we overcorrect? (Score 2) 343

Water vapor is vastly more significant than CO2

CO2 is more significant to the current climate change because it is a long-lived greenhouse gas, so its increase in concentration increases the radiative forcing for many decades or centuries. Increasing the water vapour only increases rainfall over the following week.

and they both have far less effect than the nitrogen and oxygen.

Nitrogen and Oxygen aren't significantly greenhouse or anti-greenhouse.

Comment Re:What if we overcorrect? LA comparison (Score 1) 343

Shesh, nope. First, what tax subsidies are you talking about? There is no way Coal is subsidized, nor is oil and gas.

The IMF reckons that subsidies before tax to fossil fuel industries was about half a trillion dollars in 2009. So you might be mistake about that. (Or 1.9 trillion if you count externalities).

electric rates so low that renewables are simply not viable.

PV solar is ridiculously cheap because of a glut, but wind turbines are becoming genuinely cheap and efficient. They're both viable in certain circumstances and places. PV solar is viable if it is generated at the point of use, as so circumvents the need for the infrastructure of the grid. Wind is viable in certain climates. Geothermal is viable if you have the geology. Hydro is also viable if you have the geography.

Solar is simply NOT viable yet for industrial or even small scale use outside of areas that have the correct kinds of weather (even then it's all but marginal and has really long ROIs). It's going to be cheaper to make electricity by natural gas for a LONG time, especially over solar.

Prices are dropping and efficiency is increasing. I agree that taking into account costs associated with the grid, PV is generally not at grid parity. But people are talking about hitting grid parity with PV by the end of the decade. And for a roof-top unit supplying power to the house, it is already better than grid in many places. (assuming that this means that the transmission costs can be ignored).

Comment Re:What if we overcorrect? (Score 1) 343

I'm with you, only I'll add that a good part of C02 production comes form farming if you consider fertilizer production, Cow flatulence, fossil fuels to power the equipment, pump water and transporting food stuffs/raw materials etc. We simply cannot eliminate that, or a lot of people will starve and die.

The idea has been to move from fossil fuels to other energy sources. We simply can do that. Battery electric farm equipment and a nuclear power station is one way.

Point of precision: Cow flatulence isn't a significant source of greenhouse gasses. Cow digestion makes methane, but it is released at the front end of said bovine.

Comment Re:What if we overcorrect? (Score 1) 343

where can we find a completely accurate (or even reasonably accurate) climate model?

Model's aren't completely accurate. If you're asking for one, you've got an agenda that is not science based.

Where do you find a reasonably accurate one? You could start at NASA, NOAA, HadCRU, DOE, NCAR, or the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, CERFACS (France) for some well known General Circulation Models.

Point is, the science is not "settled", unless everyone is agreeing on the mere fact that climate does change over time (which, seriously, no one credibly argues against).

There are things that are settled. The solar system is heliocentric. Human activity is probably responsible for most of the current warming. Plate tectonics causes continental drift.

what is the rate of change, and is is accurate enough to take action against?

Over the past decade or so, it ranges between 0.5 and 1 W/m st the top of atmosphere. It's accurate enough to know that reducing emissions alone almost certainly isn't going to avoid the 3C change that is considered dangerous. (If you're not concerned with dropping biodiversity too much).

If we overestimate, then our best efforts may well over-correct, and we touch off a new ice age.

I doubt it. Even above the tropopause sulphate aerosols last years and not decades. Lower technology methods such as increasing cloud reflectivity and tropospheric sulphate aerosols stop having an effect the week following the one you stop doing it.

Those are the methods discussed in TFA.

As it is, there's still too much slop factor, and the degree of confidence isn't high enough across the spectrum of scientists.

Big call. How much "slop factor" is there, what degree of confidence would be high enough across the spectrum of scientists?

Why do you need to be across the spectrum of scientists?

Wouldn't reasonable expectation based on a vast majority opinion be sufficient to act?

Was it primarily due to politics, culture, technology, medical/scientific knowledge... what? Most of what I just listed has bugger-all to do with the climate.

I think that you're mistaken if you think that politics, culture, technology, medicine and scientific knowledge are independent of climate. There are wars in the Norther of Africa now that are probably strongly affected by nomadic peoples having to wander into non-traditional lands because of droughts probably attributable to the anthropogenic part of climate change.

Wars affect politics and culture directly, and indirectly technology and scientific knowledge. Medicine? There are many medical effect of climate change that are behind studied.

1) climate does change, and trying to keep everything just like it is in the 1980s (or whenever) may do more damage than just letting it cycle naturally.

Naturally? Did you know that burning fossil fuels releases greenhouse gasses, and that greenhouse gasses cause the greenhouse effect?

There's nothing natural about what the climate is doing now, and neither is it "cycling".

before your investigations turn into actions, you'd damned well better know for certain what you are doing - making mistakes on a global level will have global consequences, and will last for a very long, long time.

If the action is introduce additional sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere (or upper troposphere), how long is this "very long long time?". Seven years? Eight?

Comment Engineer and Doctor? (Score 1) 737

In a post-apocalypse world, medical doctors would be useful, as would most scientists and engineers

You're thinking of a weenie little apocalypse. The word kind of implies something a bit bigger.

A doctor, and engineer and a scientist are no use in a world that can no longer produce drugs or scalpels, construction materials or lab equipment.

Post apocalypse useful skills would be bivouac building, stone toolmaking, farming and animal handling. Rope-making from vegetable fibres and tannery would come in handy, and the single most useful skill in the world would be making a fire without a match.

But no engineer can build a combustion engine from magnetite sand, and no doctor can pin together a fractured bone with their bare hands.

Comment Re:not private (Score 3, Informative) 128

Not necessarily. We already have a similar law in place. It's illegal to videotape you, make pictures of you or record you in any other way unless you give prior consent, unless you are a "person of public interest", i.e. a celebrity, a politician or similar.

Not in Australia.

You are able to make any recording of anyone so long as you do it from public property with a very few particular exceptions.

  • You need to obtain consent to use it for commercial purpose
  • You need to obtain consent if the person is undressed or engaged in a private act, and they're in circumstances where a reasonable person would reasonably expect to be afforded privacy, and you're taking the photo for sexual gratification
  • You can't take an indecent photograph of someone under 16. (That's with or without consent, and unlike the two above, this one is criminal).

There's laws against workplace surveillance by employers, and there are laws against peeping and against being a public nuisance, which means interfering with someone else's enjoyment of a public place, but broadly speaking, if you can see it, you can photograph it.

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