Copyright does increase the size of the jackpot if you get lucky
It increases it from 0 no matter what, not just if you're lucky. You have no recourse for somebody taking your screenplay but for recognizing intellectual property.
but that is not so much a reduction in risk as a decrease in the risk/reward ratio.
What are you trying to say here? The only think I can figure out is so far from reasonable that I won't address it because it's probably just me not understanding what you're trying to convey. Clarify?
This official White House photograph is being made available
A picture taken, that has no copyright protection, does not need to be published by the author. Nevertheless, the White House decided to publish it. Assuming the White House understands that federal employee works are public domain works (of course they know this - they're not stupid), let's continue reading with the assumption that it is a public domain work. So far so good. The published a public domain work.
only for publication by news organizations
One could read a copyright assertion here (like you did), but one can also read a limited, non-exclusive license for the use of Obama's likeness. An infringement claim would never work, and the White House surely knows this, so it makes more sense to read this as a license.
and/or for personal use printing by the subject(s) of the photograph.
I think they are overstating their position here. You could read this as providing a non-exclusive copyright license (reproduction right) to the subjects, but again, the White House isn't stupid.
The photograph may not be manipulated in any way and may not be used in commercial or political materials, advertisements, emails, products, promotions that in any way suggests approval or endorsement of the President, the First Family, or the White House.
Here's some sticky language. No manipulation? Are they saying no derivative works, implying a copyright assertion? Doubtful, because this right belongs to a copyright holder regardless of an assertion of the right. Instead, I would again say it makes more sense to read this together with the following clause which makes it clear that Obama does not want his likeness commercially associated with things he does not approve of. There's room to disagree here, for sure. One response is that the White House is fear mongering, even though they know better. Just not a very smart way to do it.
I've noticed several design suggestions in your code.