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Comment Re:Think you understand these things? Try this... (Score 1) 365

Okay, if you don't get the problem (and yes it is correctly stated), there are three things you can do to improve your understanding.

1) Write a simple computer program in your language of choice to generate a billion random two-children families and count the ones that meet the conditions.
2) Draw a Venn diagram.
3) Read up on Bayes' theorem.

Comment Think you understand these things? Try this... (Score 1) 365

A family with two children is chosen at random from a large population.

If I tell you only that they have at least one daughter, what is the probability that both children are girls?

Most people can get that one (it's 1/3), but fail miserably on this question:

If I tell you only that they have at least one child named Mary, what is the probability that both children are girls?

Assume the obvious: the boy/girl ratio is 50-50 and only girls are named Mary.

Most people insist that this is the same question with the same answer, but no, it's not, and the answer is actually 50%.

If you don't get this puzzle, you don't understand conditional probability.

Comment Should give the retards equal time and expose them (Score 0, Flamebait) 344

Students, now that we have covered the neo-Darwinian synthesis of natural selection and modern genetics, we should give some time to a competing explanation put forward by many prominent opponents to science.

In this alternative theory, the earth and all its life forms were created at 9:00 am on October 23rd, exactly 6,012 years ago, just shortly before a talking snake tricked a mud-man's rib-wife with a magic fruit. This crime required the Creator to impregnate a teenager several thousand years later, and now if you don't ritually cannibalize his zombie son, you'll roast in a giant lava pit forever after you die. All of the fossils you may see were caused by a giant flood or were deliberately planted by an evil spirit to deceive you.

You will understand America much better when you accept the fact that many more of your fellow citizens prefer this second explanation to the first one.

Slashback

Submission + - Fruit Bats Infected with Deadly Marburg Virus (scienceblogs.com)

grrlscientist writes: "The source for one of the deadliest viruses known to man appears to have finally been identified. Marburg virus, which is closely related to Ebola virus, causes a severe bloody disease in humans that has between 80-90% fatality rate. [story includes pictures]

From the story: The Egyptian fruit bat was first identified as a potential source of this virus after experts from the Center for Disease Control (CDC), the National Institute of Communicable Diseases in South Africa and the World Health Organization (WHO) captured and tested them. The team caught a variety of bat species using mist nets placed near the entrance to a lead and gold mine in a remote forest reserve in western Uganda. After the bats were captured, blood and tissues were collected and stored in liquid nitrogen until they were examined for the presence of Marburg virus."

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