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Comment Midwest too (Score 1) 330

Now that we finally are looking at the whole system (aquifers too) rather than just surface water, we will be seeing pending droughts in a lot more places than we might think. I am on two planning commissions in Minnesota and we are very aware of the water supplies under ground, the entire state is concerned, and we are the land of 10,000 lakes (or, during flood season, one really big lake"). A new emphasis on sustainability and the ability to estimate water supplies better, coupled with a full "total cost of ownership" for new developments, gives local planners an opportunity to say no to new developments in a way that we did not see during the big boom of the 70's and 80's. Of course, the unintended consequence of careful planning is that we start to see "economic refugees", by which I mean people who move in despite local attempts to remain sustainable.

Comment Nuanced Republican View (Score 1) 435

I posted this on an MPR website discussing one Republican's response to this news. (Rep Bachman, one of my LEAST favorite Congresspeople)

Two comments. First, I expect better of the MPR audience than a bunch of personal attacks on the politicians involved ("crazy", "nut job", etc.). Where is the dialog in that? [They were discussing Rep Bachman]

Second, this Republican agrees that the [Cuban] embargo was a success, but not in the sense that it kept Cuba from profiting from its low wage workers (a form of serfdom?), but rather in the sense that Cuba was able to attempt to build a socialist paradise absent the machinations of the free world and its powerful interests. Did they succeed? If you think that universal health care at the 1950's level is success, with life expectancies comparable to US, and with a thriving black market in access to medical care for those with money (similar to ours, except that our high-payer patients subsidize the entire health industry rather than just the people they bribe), perhaps they did. If you think that a two-level economy is success (the have-nots and the tourists), perhaps they did. If you think a population with low expectations of their government and a high level of self sufficiency, perhaps they did succeed. Certainly their model of socialism is much more benign than, for example, North Korea's alleged communist system (I say alleged because NK is communist only in its choice of friends, not in its actual economic system, which is more a large slave plantation, as near as I can tell). So while I can understand a certain amount of hostility towards Cuba for their oppression of their people's freedoms, I must also acknowledge that, for a Luddite nation, they are doing much better than their Russian handlers did.

Comment Prostitutes v Co-eds (Score 1) 295

Prostitutes:coeds as taxis:uber brbr One tries to be sustainable, the other lives outside the economically sustainable boundary by not keeping itself fully accountable for the total cost of operations. The establishment lament is "how can we make a living when the tyros are giving it away below cost"? The tyros retort? Your place or mine?

Comment N=1 (Score 1) 1051

We statisticians refer to anecdotes as non-random samples of size N=1.

Completely and totally worthless. Actually, not worthless (value 0), they are worth-negative, as they actually prevent good decision making.

And as Kahneman and Tversky discussed, the availability heuristic and the ease of remembering the outliers makes for very bad decision making. This is exacerbated by the modern un-filtered news system (aka, "the web" cross the "infotainment industry"). This warped noise delivery system, masquerading as "news you need to know" results in a really bad decision making process. Modern medicine (where I worked as a statistician) is unable to help with this extra-scientific process.

Comment Re:give Peace a Chance (Score 1) 129

Because in the end, someone has to be as powerful as the most powerful state we might logically fear. Right now that is the Russians (simple tanks and bombs), the Chinese (economic warfare), and the Islamofascists (intent). Of these, we cannot afford to fight the Chinese, we are not the bleeding edge in defending against the Russians, and we might be able to defeat the Islamofascists here at home using ideas, not so sure about in other countries.

But the old days of raising armies only when needed has gone the way of the horse and buggy. Unless you are the Swiss, who count on others to provide defacto long-arm defense, you probably cannot count on an armed population either ("Red Dawn not withstanding)

Comment Methods and mileage may vary. (Score 1) 772

But in the end, whether it is a Catholic inquisition or a CIA operative is less material than why it is done. We should not simply scream

"do no torture on my behalf",

we should perhaps scream

I am willing to let X=8,143 people a year die from terrorist attacks rather than use torture

The number 8,143 is what we are arguing about.

The CIA thinks X is something small, like 1 child or 3 innocent adults.

The rest of us must think X is closer to 1M. Interestingly, it is the scientific humanists among us who claim X=Inf, even though they do not have a moral compass like the church telling them that. More proof that it does not take a religion to make one moral.

Comment Re:Federal law has an effect, too (Score 1) 413

A real analysis of correlations would have to include not only the party of the Executive branch, but also the parties in the House and Senate. At a minimum. But Attila Dimedici's points are still well noted. Another "Inconvenient Truth" kept out of the minds of the people. Not unlike people who would point to Washington DC's abysmal schools and note that it has been a Democratic city since way back. Forbes has an interesting article on this

The most fundamental difference between the data that conservatives prefer—that the 10 poorest cities are longtime Democratic strongholds—and the data that liberals will be more inclined to cite—that the 10 poorest states are predominantly Republican, is that conservatives can point to actual policies that Democrats implemented that contributed to the impoverishment of the cities, while the liberals cannot point to specific GOP policies that have caused the poorer states to lag behind.

The Democratic case is illusory and circumstantial; the Republican case is solid and substantial. However, in a country where so many people are economically and historically illiterate, combined with the human proclivity whereby “a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest” (Paul Simon, “The Boxer”), the Democrats may be able to score some points with a hollow argument. The Republicans, though, have the facts on their side.

Ref: Are the 10 Poorest States Really Republican

How can we argue with an author who quotes Paul Simon?

Submission + - Outlaw Puns? What pun is that? 1

FreedomFirstThenPeac writes: A story in The Guardian tells us that in an Orwellian-like move to legislate language, the Chinese are attempting to stop the use of puns because they are disruptive and may lead to chaos (not the mathematical kind) and as such are unsuitable for use. However, Chinese is rife with puns, with this example quoted in the story

When couples marry, people will give them dates and peanuts – a reference to the wish Zaosheng guizi or “May you soon give birth to a son”. The word for dates is also zao and peanuts are huasheng

The powerful date and peanut lobbies are up in arms, claiming that such a ban will cost them more than peanuts. Their claim? "If you outlaw puns. Only criminals will have puns."

Comment Barbarians at the eGates. (Score 1) 436

Civilization and civilized behavior has always been more about the social contracts (as in implied) than the legal contracts (as in laws). What makes my small town more comfortable, than the big town I winter in, is the social contract we all share and impose primarily through shame and shun. The Internet and global culture have revealed the weakness in social normative pressures when anonymity meets cultural relativism. The copy-paste examples are more noteworthy for the fact that copy-paste mentality overridesany social normative pressures we might exert. Yes, copy-paste examples abound, but do I just copy them and claim immunity from social pressures? I could copy-paste one word and a time and stand "immune" because I did not pen them myself?

We are in a dark cave, the wumpus is loose, and the only people with lights are lying religious fanatics whose reason is their sacred writings and whose swords are, more rapidly than we might wish, the actual swords they raise against the unbelievers. Chop. Chop.

(Footnote: I believe in the 2nd amendment not because I can expect to win but rather because I can expect to make it a little more expensive for the eventual winners.)

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