NAT works, if no machine on the LAN is infected with something that allows remote control.
Updates will eventually obsolete this trick, of course servers are taken extra care of, clients would be vulnerable the longest.
Windows Firewall... I don't trust it, countless times have I been able to launch programmes not allowed thru windows firewall, it pops up asking me if i want to keep blocking it... however in the background i can see PuTTy or whatever establishing a connection just fine without my approval, just until i choose to block it, which would be too late had it been malicious software. And I've seen this on all windows from XP to 7... When it can't even keep local programs from getting out, why should i trust it would keep anything outside? What comes from outside has got to be much more unpredictable than what runs locally trying to get out... so I don't trust it...
You're right it won't be as severe as it was with the old windows counting percent, but counting the number of people that's gonna experience it, I don't know if it'll be fewer, there's a lot more computers around today than late 90's, don't know if it'll be more either...