Comment Re:Improving data [Re:The Gods] (Score 1) 385
... Karl et al. conclusion is an outlier. And you don't have to be a scientist to know it... if it weren't, there wouldn't have been news media all over the place reporting "No 'Hiatus' After All". Outliers are outliers. They can be recognized from their conclusions, as I did, but by lay people they can also often be recognized by the media uproar they stir. Simple logic says that if it hadn't been NEWS, it wouldn't have made a stir in the news. [Jane Q. Public, 2015-07-23]
Jane's method of spotting outliers via media uproar is cute, but it would be more rigorous to actually look at Fig 1 (a) and (b). The new global trend's central estimate is within the error bars of the old estimate.
... [Dumb Scientist] ... All it takes is simple logic to clearly show that Karl et al. results are an outlier. I didn't exactly make this up, either. Lots of others have been saying it. In fact, even many of the big news sources haven't dared to touch Karl with a 10-foot pole. It's just that -- ahem -- "credible".
... [Jane Q. Public, 2015-07-28]
Again, spotting outliers via media uproar isn't as rigorous as actually looking at the data. So let's reproduce Fig 1(b) in Karl et al. 2015, which shows trends from 1998 to 2012. Let's calculate those trends for all the land/ocean, global, and satellite datasets listed here:
HadCRUT4 trend: +0.050 ± 0.139 C/decade (2 sigma)
NOAA trend: +0.079 ± 0.131 C/decade (2 sigma)
Karl(2015) trend: +0.086 ± 0.148 C/decade (2 sigma)
GISTEMP trend: +0.100 ± 0.141 C/decade (2 sigma)
Berkeley trend: +0.096 ± 0.137 C/decade (2 sigma)
HadCRUT4 krig v2 trend: +0.111 ± 0.152 C/decade (2 sigma)
Karl(2015) krig trend: +0.111 ± 0.157 C/decade (2 sigma)
RSS trend: -0.055 ± 0.246 C/decade (2 sigma)
UAH trend: +0.054 ± 0.251 C/decade (2 sigma)
All these trend estimates are consistent with my previous statement: there hasn't been a statistically significant change in the warming rate, and there isn't a statistically significant difference between the projected and observed trends.
Do these results support Jane's claim that Karl et al. 2015 is somehow an "outlier"?