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Comment Prediction vs forecast - the article gets it wrong (Score 4, Interesting) 94

FTA:

With the recent Nepal earthquake claiming more than 6,000 lives, many of us have often wondered why earthquakes cannot be predicted the same way as Tsunamis or cyclones are predicted?

This already tells a lot on how much the authors of the article know about forecasting vs predicting - this opening line is wrong in so many ways. Tropical cyclones (which grow into typhoons aka hurricanes), tsunamis, tornadoes and other such natural events can not be predicted any more accurate than earthquakes.

Tropical cyclones can be predicted with a similar accuracy as earthquakes: this are the key areas, and they happen with that frequency. That's how much you can predict a cyclone to happen: Hong Kong is affected by about eight tropical cyclones per year, and about two a year will give rise to a T8 or higher signal. That's predicting: we've had years with five such typhoons hitting, and years without any hitting the city. When a cyclone forms (which is never predicted, only observed as it happens - like an earthquake is observed as it happens), meteorologists indeed are able to forecast with reasonable accuracy where it will head, and what strength it takes. This usually leaves a few days for people to react.

Tsunamis can be predicted with even less accuracy: when an earthquake or similar event has happened the presence of a tsunami can be measured, and a quick forecast can be made of when and where it will hit shorelines, and an alert may be issued. This leaves usually a few hours to half a day for people to react.

Tornadoes form without much warning, leaving often mere minutes for people to get out of the way and into shelters - if the alarms sound at all. They, too can not be predicted.

Earthquakes happen so fast, and end so fast, that there is nothing to forecast, no alarm to sound when it happens. By the time an alert is out, the quake is pretty much over.

And there we have the difference between prediction and forecasting. Forecasting is a lot more accurate by nature, as it is reacting to what is already happening, and works quite well for following slow processes such as the formation of a tropical cyclone. I'm used to know about an incoming typhoon a few days ahead, so plenty of time to prepare. Forecasting earthquakes, well, that doesn't work like that.

Comment Re:More than $100 (Score 1) 515

Put in some long distance, high speed, overnight(!) trains in the mix.

Any trip longer than 7-8 hours is great for overnight. A 10-12 hour trip is even better. Like your coast-to-coast trip, 2,000 miles at 200 mph. About 12 hours including stops. Get on the train, have a relaxed dinner, go to bed, next morning you get up, have breakfast, and you arrive at your destination. Well rested thanks to your moving hotel.

Try that by plane - even with a 5-hour flight time and just three hours of additional time wasted at the airports, you'll have to leave early afternoon and get a hotel at destination to make your next day morning's meeting.

Comment Re:Hostility to debate (Score 1) 179

Having said all that, I find pretty much the same thing here on Slashdot and on most on-line fora. I just don't get the impression that many people see debate as a constructive way of testing one's beliefs and ideas.

Not just on the Internet. It's nothing new.

People tend to visit online forums they like, and political forums are chosen on the ones that support their views (e.g. anti-vaxxers won't visit pro-vaxxer's sites). Before that, people chose the TV channel to watch based on the ones that best supported their views. Before that, it was the newspapers.

Slashdot is to me a bit of an exception as it's a tech site with a primary tech audience that's doing quite some political stories, so the bias in audience is not too political.

Comment Re:Laws that need to be made in secret (Score 1) 169

Yeah, we have a similar problem in Europe where the TTIP (as in Transatlantic) would open up to a flood of US products that would fail current European regulations. Only the lawyers are going to get rich out of it.

Or so we think... The news that I read about it is contradictory, some argue that this is not the case at all. This of course confirms the key issue which is that the negotiations are done all in secret, and that the various governments want to pass the agreement and make it into law in secret, and that only after the fact the general population gets a say in it.

So while there's a lot of talk about the good/bad of this agreement, what it really is going to be (if it ever sees the light), or even what the current status of the negotiations is, we simply don't know!

Comment Re:Pretty much no service providers catch things.. (Score 1) 234

The most interesting thing (and an apparent hardware error from their side) is that this line actually made phone calls.

This is a case where you'd think their system would be able to detect that calls were being placed by a residence that had no service. Nope.

They should realise that after a call from the police about the issue. A proper customer service rep should also immediately transfer such a call to a higher level, the moment he realises that it really is the police contacting them, and that there is something going on that is seemingly impossible.

Comment Re:"long distance" (Score 1) 234

Also, monitoring for this kind of accident is paying a lot more attention to individual customer bills and usage than I necessarily want AT&T monitoring. AT&T has already established that they cooperate extensively with monitoring US communications at NSA request, especially with the notorious "Room 641A". DO we want them collecting and acting on this kind of data?

They won't be collecting more data than before. They're collecting billing data as usual - and there's nothing wrong with that. They have to collect that data to send out the correct bills to their customers. The only difference is that they should keep an eye on what they're billing, and unusual costs racked up by customers.

This issue should have set off various flags. First of all I can't imagine there are many residential users that use this much long distance calls (or calls to the kind of premium numbers where the called party gets a share, considering the total amount of the bills - this used to be a very common thing back in the 90s/early 00s). Secondly, the far higher amount of the current bill than the previous bill, another reason for a flag.

The above are routine for credit card companies, and I never hear people complain about that. I've the same experience with my mobile provider, they contacted me when I travelled with it. It's basic consumer protection (and protection of the telco/cc issuer): your credit card is suddenly used overseas, is that you or is your card stolen? Your phone is using roaming, is that you or is your phone stolen? Same for landline providers: your are suddenly using a lot of long distance calls/premium number calls, is that intentional?

If the cost billed have any relation to actual cost made by AT&T, it means now AT&T is also out of a significant amount of cash, not even counting the bad publicity (assuming they actually care about that of course). Having basic monitoring on bills would have saved them all that.

Comment Re:Close to owning (Score 1) 374

There are probably no laws governing this situation. Sperm donors are already protected, but legal frameworks had to be developed after sperm donation became technically possible, I'm quite sure the first sperm donors had no such legal protections.

Comment Re:Close to owning (Score 4, Insightful) 374

If you'd say "until actual incubation of the egg in the woman's body" I'd agree. When the fertilised egg is implanted in her, either the natural way or via IVF or other artificial method, it's hers to decide whether to keep it or have it aborted or whatever. Do keep in mind that the implantation is not necessarily in the egg donor's body.

When fertilisation takes place outside of her body, as long as the egg/embryo remains outside of her body, both partners should be equally involved in what happens next. That's just sensible. If you claim the egg cell is the mother's and the mother's only, this should equally apply to the sperms being the man's and the man's only. Logic extension of this means that the combination of the two, a fertilised egg, belongs to both.

The moment the egg is implanted in a woman's body, things change: the woman who has the egg in her body should then be called the owner. Even if she's not the egg donor. I believe this part is already pretty well established when it comes to surrogate motherhood.

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