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Comment Re:More proof (Score 1) 667

The last CO2 spike comparable to the current one was the PETM about 55.8 million years ago. The rate of carbon increase then appears to be at least 10 times slower than it is now and there was a mass extinction that accompanied it on benthic formaminifera. If the rate today was 10 times slower ocean life would have a much better chance of being able to adapt.

Comment Re:Interstellar missions... (Score 4, Insightful) 211

I don't think that's true. On a cloudy but windy night in the desert it doesn't get nearly as cold as on a clear windless night all other things being equal. In fact when I searched for "Desert nighttime cooling" here is the first thing that came up. It basically says under clear low humidity conditions at night radiative cooling is by far the the largest reason for cooling.

Comment Re:Bullshit (Score 5, Interesting) 211

1 nanosecond..., honestly, that's typically British. In the US that battery would have been trashed already. The Brits are way too much attached to these long lasting historical figures. And royalty is another example.

Well, there is a light bulb in Livermore, CA that's been burning for 114 years. That hasn't been continuous as there have been some power outages and it's been moved a few times but the Livermore fire department seems pretty attached to it.

Comment Re:They already have (Score 1) 667

As I posted in a previous reply here is more of a big picture look at it:

GISTemp Decadal Global Surface Temperature
(Anomaly from 1950-1981 mean)

Decade_______Anomaly
1884-1893_____-0.26
1894-1903_____-0.25
1904-1913_____-0.40
1914-1923_____-0.28
1924-1933_____-0.17
1934-1943_____+0.00
1944-1953_____-0.03
1954-1963_____-0.02
1964-1973_____-0.02
1974-1983_____+0.10
1984-1993_____+0.24
1994-2003_____+0.46
2004-2014_____+0.59

As you can see the temperature rise from 1904-1903 to 2004-2014 is 0.99 degrees. Looking at it in decadal slices takes out the noise of year to year variability.

In the "big picture", there aren't many effective levers to pull to solve the warming problem, and the cost of pulling them is higher than the benefit.

Sez you. I've seen plenty of analyses from others including economists that say otherwise. At the rate we're going the "small amount" of warming over a few hundred years is still 10 times faster than the warming at the end of the last glaciation (ice age) and will cause sea level rise in 10's of feet.

Comment Re:They already have (Score 1) 667

The 19334-1943 mean was the same as the 1951-1980 mean so 2014 is equally unusually hot (and in case you're going to ask what about 1930-1933 the 1924-1933 mean was -0.17 compared to the 1951-1980 mean). 10,000 years ago was at the tail end of the last glaciation (ice age in the common vernacular). From proxy research it appears to at most been about the same as the 1951-1980 average although of course the error margin is larger.

Comment Re:Real question is: how much are humans changing (Score 1) 667

Climate change (global warming?) skeptics admit that humans are affecting climate, but the real question is "how much are humans changing it?". And while asking that, we should also ask:

    - Is the data used to measure climate accurate? (IPCC controversially says: "urban heat islands don't matter when measuring temperature")

No, the IPCC says we apply corrections for the UHI effect and the corrections have been scientifically validated.

- Is the climate actually warming? (satellite datasets say not for the last 18-25 years, terrestrial datasets say 14 years)

It takes a pretty narrow view to try and make that statement. Meanwhile the oceans continue to absorb more energy, sea level continues to rise and ice keeps melting, symptoms of a warming world.

- If there is warming, how much of it is caused by CO2 rises? (not much, since warming has "paused" while CO2 levels increased)

Which just shows that you don't understand the magnitude of natural variability is over 10 times the magnitude of the warming signal from CO2 and feedbacks. Eventually as the warming continues to rise it will overcome the vicissitudes of natural variability. The fact that 2014 is the warmest in the instrument record and it wasn't also an El Nino year indicates that's starting to happen.

- How accurate are the CO2-temperature feedback models? (not very, they have overestimated by 2-4x)

2-4 times is gross hyperbole. Temperatures are still within the uncertainty bands of climate model projections so it's impossible to say the models are wrong.

- How much of the CO2 rise is caused by humans?

Considering that the year to year increase in CO2 in the atmosphere is only about 45% of yearly output of human emissions the answer has to be 100%.

- What is the cost/benefit of lowering CO2 now vs delaying 50/100 years when tech will be more advanced?

If the possible bad effects of not reducing CO2 emissions are even moderately possible then risk management theory says it's far more costly to wait than to do something about it. Even now the cost of wind and solar power is starting to be competitive with existing electricity production so the cost really isn't that great. And the cost of renewables is still going down.

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