Comment Re: Denialism is much worse than Alarmism (Score 2) 163
I realize the worst case scenarios he was mentioning were in reference to storm surges, the problem is the lack of reality in the suggestions to stop climate change. Its already happening and sea levels will likely go up 2 feet by 2100. Here's where it gets tricky: amortize the cost of mitigating disaster in these areas to those 84 years. Its called levees, its not that hard, its expensive, but not nearly as expensive as the alternative.
The alternative is to turn back time, because we dont have the technology or global consensus to stop climate change. Imagining anything else is living in fantasy land. There are countries who have a vested interest in economic growth for stability (china, brazil), countries who would actually benefit from climate change (russia), countries whose very livelihood is tied up in the current demands (OPEC). nothing that will prevent the sea level from rising till 2100 will succeed unless all parties involved cooperate.
So, next option: we lead by example and exert pressure. Doing so requires the countries that do so to sacrifice their economic growth without guarantee that it will slow down the change because developing countries are ramping up their economies on dirty coal and oil. if anything, it stagnates co2 at the cost of the world economic growth.
why is economic growth so important? Because the best way to deal with climate change is to outcompete fossil fuels. development in fusion, fission, solar, wind, and geothermal are a must. We can't get rid of a significant portion of fuel use anyway until we get compact baseload level power for freighters, so advances in power production or storage are vital to stemming fuel usage. overly punitive approaches to mitigating climate change only result in less ability to react should our predictions be wrong. it is also worth noting that one of the first things to go in tough times is R&D, so implementing onerous restrictions on ourselves could cause damage as well.
look at how far we've come in 100 years in terms of tech and as a society. some of the things we can do today like large building projects take fractions of manpower, time, and effort to acheive. hell, we were barely just flying and driving 100 years ago. where will we be in 50 years? Probably in a better position to manage the issue than we are now. Even if we arent? We can still build those damn levees for far less than the cost of implementing heavy restrictions now. I have confidence in human ability to adapt and engineer out of our problems.
now, 'worst case' predictions might happen so we should prepare? This is what i have a problem with. You sound like a doomsday prepper. I doubt you build bunkers and several year stockpiles because there might be a global war in the future, do you? Thats what the alarmist argument sounds to anyone with a decent grasp on the time scales involved. Im not saying we shouldnt implement reachable goals to help slow things down, but the drastic requests of many proponents are just assinine and ruin good potential results. you have to factor in the lack of control countries have on a global scale, the momentum already behind things as they are, and the damage that mitigation efforts will have to the current and future economy. it only serves to distract from real efforts that can be done.