Comment Re:The Same Winners (Score 1) 153
It is interesting to see how this unfolds.
A lot of the US exports have pricing power today due to Ukraine war shortages - petroleum/gas, food, weapons. The US is exporting inflation to other counties via these goods.
On the other hand, imports are cheaper and it's helping with inflation internally.
Most of the inflation currently being experienced is due to supply-side problems. (There is a real-estate and stock market bubble, but it is imploding or about the implode.) High interest rates don't fix the supply-side, actually makes it worse because it hinders CapEx spending and capacity expansion.
The Fed is trying to cause a severe recession in order to curb the inflation in consumer staples (and they probably will next year, if not sooner) and wants to export as much of it as possible via a strong dollar.
I wouldn't be one bit surprised if the Fed is aggressively cutting rates in 2024 to restart the economy (also presidential elections).