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Comment Re:Record Hot Streak based on.... (Score 1) 170

This is a common claim. People like to expand it into things like, well, more CO2 and warmer climates means a lusher Earth and more food!

That's probably true. Most of the land is in the northern hemisphere, fairly far from the equator. Deserts will expand with warmer temperatures, but likely even more land will become arable in the north. I'm Canadian, and my countrymen often quip that global warming sounds pretty good.

The problem is that cities need a *constant* supply of food. I grew up in a farming community. Farmers admittedly like to bitch about everything, but there's a reason for that. They'll be happy to tell you about how any change from the norm, in any direction, negatively affects their crops. Modern agriculture, especially in the developed world, isn't some old geezer waking up one day, squinting at the sun, letting some dirt trickle through his fingers, standing up and sighing "well, I guess it's plantin' time again." It's incredibly optimized. There was a documentary, unfortunately I can't find it, on all the things the USDA tracks and models in order to make recommendations for pretty much every aspect of agriculture in the US.

Canada is supposed to get (overall) warmer and wetter. Sounds great yeah? Well, a few years ago we had a really wet fall, meaning nobody could dry hay, meaning lots of livestock had to be culled the next year because there wasn't enough food for them. Warmer also means less or no persistent snow pack in the winter, so no spring runoff.

Moving New York, Miami and New Orleans because they're getting regularly flooded is expensive, but doable. Moving Capetown, LA, or a hundred other cities because they're out of water is expensive, doable. Switching Iowa from growing corn to growing wheat is expensive, but doable. All at the same time, and along with a zillion other things starts to get dicey, and definitely more expensive. And the global climate is likely to keep shifting for a long time until the heat budget equalizes and another zillion things all equilibrate.

One of the reasons Australia was sparsely populated historically, never developed large agrarian civilizations, and agriculture is still very difficult, is that its geography makes its climate highly variable. Civilization thrives in stability.

Comment Re:Record Hot Streak based on.... (Score 1) 170

Pick one. Look up a vanished civilization and you've got a decent chance of finding one.

I googled "vanished civilizations" and the first hit is this:

https://www.britannica.com/lis...

First on the list is the Maya:

At its height, the Maya empire extended throughout the Yucatán Peninsula, modern-day Guatemala, Belize, and parts of Mexico, making it one of the most dominant civilizations of its time. The Maya were quite advanced, demonstrating remarkable engineering skills and employing complex mathematics. The civilization appeared unable to sustain itself and experienced a dramatic decline about 900 CE. Archeologists now believe that the Maya were victims of ongoing war coupled with climate change that resulted in famine, forcing an exodus from their largest cities. Decimation of the countryside, resulting in diminishing resources, may also have played a role.

Comment Re:Watch a lecture by Subir Sarkar ... (Score 1) 77

The problem with public lectures is that you have to simplify things, and that means skipping the details.

You can present a compelling story about cosmology and the dipole in the CMB. Or the quadropole, which is weirder. Or that our galaxy is in a denser than average part of the universe. Or that our galactic cluster might be in a void.

They all have different effects, in all directions, all depend on particular sets of assumptions which aren't unreasonable but also aren't guaranteed to be true, and all are compelling when that's the only story you hear.

Comment Re:So? (Score 1) 77

You've dismissed an insightful comment.

It's apparently not exactly clear what 1922 theory he's referring to, but we certainly didn't just take something from 1922 and use it today as is.

There's general relativity, which we keep trying to poke holes in, the idea of the big bang itself, which dates to the 40s, dark matter, from ~1930s, refined and tested in a lot of different ways since then, dark energy from 1998, inflation in the 1970s, and a bunch of other things.

If you want to point to a single theory underlying modern cosmology that's existed approximately unchanged for a long time, it's general relativity.

Comment Oh, well, change :) (Score 1) 22

Every change looks like corruption in the eyes of people who don't like it.

And corruption looks like evolution to some people.

Personally, I'm in favor of words meaning as much of the same thing over time as possible. It enhances communication and understanding. If you need a new meaning, you either need a new word or you need to explain yourself at a bit more length. Lest you "decimate" (cough) the listener's/reader's understanding... you get me?

Comment Re: Recent studies... (Score 4, Insightful) 170

I will. 250 million is 2.5 x 10^8. 7.6 sextillion is 7.6 x 10^21.

250 mg is 2.5 x 10^2 * 10^-6 kg = 2.5 x 10^-4 kg. 80 kg is 8 x 10^1 kg.

The difference in the first case is 21-8 = 13 orders of magnitude. The difference in the second case is 6-1 = 5 orders of magnitude, for a total difference of differences between examples of 13-5 = 8 orders of mangitude.

Your claim was "50,000 - 100,000 orders of magnitude off". Assuming the "-" is "to", that's 5 x 10^4 to 1 x 10^5 orders of magnitude.

I think it's safe to say you don't know what "order of magnitude" means.

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