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Comment Re:Here goes nothing (Score 1) 169

"By the by - the reason this is different from Scientology is because Scientology is a cult. They don't tend to gain membership just from selling people a line of B.S. but rather through indoctrination."

Show me a "real" religion that does not start indoctrinating at a young age?

"They've gained religious status as an organized religion through intimidation and litigation, but having a shit load of money doesn't make them any less of a cult."

Just wind the clock back about 500-600 years and replace "Scientology" with "Catholic Church"...

Comment Not really (Score 1) 411

What is being proposed here is exactly the opposite of one size fits all. Insurance companies already discriminate based on driver's age, gender or marital status. If insurance companies could come up with some actual data that shows some degree of correlation between miles driven and accident or claim rate, it is perfectly reasonable to expect that they will offer insurance rates based on this.

What I am wondering is this: If the data shows that people with a certain age group that drive less than a certain number of miles per year have the highest accident and claim rate, would the insurance rates for that group go up? Will the politicians have the guts to counter the outcry from the AARP?

Comment Hard to estimate future cost (Score 3, Interesting) 199

The language projecting the cost savings for this new solar technology is somewhat dubious as usual. Even if the developers of this technology have good reason to think that the cadmium sulfide based solar panel technology will cost 1/10th compared to today's cost of developing silicon based solar panels, what happens between now and when they are able to take this technology to mass production in five or more years?

There is a massive world-wide technology complex driving the optimization of silicon based manufacturing technology. The amount of capital invested into silicon manufacturing process and tools is measured in tens of billions of dollars per year, if not hundreds of billions. If the conventional process improvements is able to achieve 20-25% cost improvement per year, in five years, the cost of panels based on conventional panels would be down to 25-30% of today's cost. A few hickups in the development of the new technology like yield or reliability issues can easily delay the mass deployment by a few years which will negate all cost benefits. Not to mention the possibility of cadmium prices going up if the volumes are picking up...

And don't forget the cost of capital investment, which is already funded due to other "useful" applications in the silicon case. Most other technologies that tried to compete against silicon lost so far, not because of fundamental technical issues but because of the economics involved.

I am not against developing new innovative technologies to achieve substantial improvements in the solar power area. However, it is best to keep the optimism about new and unproven technologies in control until they reach at least beta production stage...

Comment Rounding out the Cisco server product line (Score 1) 93

These new 1U/2U servers may appear to be even less interesting than the California (UCS) products that were introduced earlier this year. However, the reality is that Cisco is actually rounding out the lower end of its server product line before they introduce the much more innovative, higher end (higher margin) SMP systems later this year. Intel just announced the new SMP platforms based on 8-core processors that scale to 4 and 8 sockets. Expect Cisco to scale the socket count even further. Going into the server market with some conventional products enables them to build sales channels and ramp up the service organization to get ready for the real stuff.

Comment Your ISP is the more likely culprit... (Score 4, Insightful) 207

There is simply not enough data to support this conclusion. Reduced amount of streaming bandwidth could be due a sustained congestion at any point in the network between the Netflix server and your client. A lot of ISPs oversubscribe their access network very heavily based on statistical multiplexing assumptions that simply do not work when even a small percentage of customers on a subnet are streaming video.

If there is any throttling going on, it is more likely that your ISP is responsible for it. Cable companies and DSL providers who are getting into the video on demand business may not like Netflix beating them to market with a more cost effective product...

Comment Re:Anonymous Coward (Score 1) 539

I am not sure if and when TTS is going to replace human voice. Animated movies have been around for a long time, and computer animated movies have been around for more than a decade. We have yet to see an animated movie with computer generated dialogue. Even the fully animated Pixar feature films have high paid actors/actresses doing all the talking.

I guess Neal Stephenson was able to see this emerging lack of parity between computer generated graphics/video and computer generated audio many years ago in Diamond Age

A book that is read by a competent actor is an "artistic performance", and is subject to copyright as such. In this context, the audio rights for the book used in that performance does not apply to a book that TTS converted by Kindle.

If TTS technology becomes so good as to be comparable to performance by an accomplished actor over the next ten years, it is the Actor's Guild who should be worried instead of Author's Guild.

By the way, the technology to convert plain paper books to speech electronically has existed for some time - even through the resulting form factor is not as convenient as Kindle.

Technology (Apple)

Submission + - Apple's deferred revenue

nokiator writes: Apple reported much better than expected results for the September'07 quarter. However, there may be more to Apple's results than what is visible on surface. What is hidden behind the revenue and earnings numbers in the press releases is the "deferred revenue", which requires deeper investigation of financial statements.

If you look at Apple's latest set of financial statements:

http://images.apple.com/pr/pdf/q407fin_statements2.pdf

There is more than 1.4 billion dollars worth of "current" deferred revenue. 346 million of this is from "iPhone and Apple TV". Anyone knows what is the source of the 634 million dollars of the "other" deferred revenue?

Now let's look at the summary data from Apple website:

http://images.apple.com/pr/pdf/q407data_sum.pdf

Check out the line for "iPhone related products and services" near the bottom. It shows 1,119 million units sold, but the total recognized revenue is only $118 million! Apple is recognizing only $100 revenue per iPhone sold last quarter, despite the fact that the retail prices for iPhones were $299/$399 after the discount and Apple was getting additional incentives (at least ~$150/iPhone according to the rumor mill) from AT&T.

It looks like Apple is using the "deferred revenue" trick to under-report the revenue and profits for a stellar quarter. The actual revenue would have been close to $7 billion and profits would have been in excess of a billion without revenue deferral. Revenue deferral will most likely help balance out a few potential "not-so-great" quarters in the future (if that is possible) by spreading the loot from stellar quarters (like the current one) evenly over a longer period of time.

Bottomline: Last quarter was actually much better than what the top-level numbers in the earning release says. Apple seems to be doing exactly the opposite of what many companies did in the late 90s and early 2000: recognize more revenue than what was actually received.

It will be interesting to hear the questions from analysts in the conference call.

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